Alverca
Casa PiaAlverca v Casa Pia · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Alverca win
Alverca hold a 49% chance of winning according to the model, with Casa Pia at 22% and a draw at 28%. Expected goals are 1.47 for the hosts and 0.93 for the visitors. Alverca have won two of their last five matches, while Casa Pia show a pattern of wins and losses in recent form, with Alverca winning both recent head-to-head encounters (3-1 at home and 2-0 away).
How the match could end · our estimate
- 49%Alverca win
- 28%Draw
- 23%Casa Pia win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
AlvercaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- lost0–1at Benfica
- lost0–1v Arouca
- drew0–0final 0–2at Tondela
- won4–1at Famalicao
- won1–0v Rio Ave
Casa PiaLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
- lost0–2v Sporting CP
- won2–0at Estrela
- won1–0at Alpendorada
- lost0–1v Santa Clara
- won2–1at Estoril
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Alverca avoided defeat in 7 of 26 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 10 Aug 2025.
- Casa Pia won 13 of 23 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Alverca's last 10 home league games.
- Not both teams scored in 7 of Casa Pia's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Alverca 2, draws 0, Casa Pia 0
Goals: Alverca 5, Casa Pia 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Alverca v Casa Pia | 3–1 |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia v Alverca | 0–2 |
Home and away
AlvercaAlverca at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostArouca24 Oct 20260–1
- WonRio Ave19 Sep 20261–0
- LostSC Braga5 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnSanta Clara29 Aug 20261–1
- DrawnEstrela15 Aug 20262–2
Alverca: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Casa PiaCasa Pia away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonEstrela24 Oct 20262–0
- WonAlpendoradaTaça de Portugal18 Oct 20261–0
- WonEstoril20 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnVitória SC6 Sep 20260–0
- LostGIL Vicente24 Aug 20260–2
Casa Pia: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 7 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Alverca- Last match
- 5 days before2 Nov 2026 · v Benfica · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- Not known
Casa Pia- Last match
- 8 days before30 Oct 2026 · v Sporting CP · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Alverca
Since 10 Aug 2025
| Score | Alverca | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 2 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 26 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 7 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost in 30 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 7 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 25 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Alverca | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 11 conceded (45) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 26 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Casa Pia
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | Casa Pia | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 13 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 639 won, 194 drawn, 116 lost in 949 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 7 drawn, 27 lost in 40 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 30 matches | 203 won, 308 drawn, 203 lost in 714 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 144 won, 296 drawn, 144 lost in 584 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 15 drawn, 23 lost in 53 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 45 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Casa Pia | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 19 conceded (71) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 6 conceded (21) | 196 scored, 196 conceded (580) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (32) | 197 scored, 240 conceded (723) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 18(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| 44Since 10 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 68Since 9 Nov 2024 |
| 54.76 | xG for | 60.77 |
| 48 | Goals scored | 66 |
| 58.32 | xG against | 105.15 |
| 66 | Goals conceded | 107 |
Alverca
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | at Benfica | 0.62 | 1.68 | 0–1 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Arouca | 0.43 | 2.06 | 0–1 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | at Famalicao | 2.92 | 0.40 | 4–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Rio Ave | 3.30 | 0.29 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Nacional | 1.16 | 2.20 | 3–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v SC Braga | 1.08 | 2.27 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.41 | 1.41 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Sporting CP | 0.41 | 2.12 | 1–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Estrela | 1.94 | 1.36 | 2–2 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at FC Porto | 1.60 | 2.61 | 0–2 |
Casa Pia
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | v Sporting CP | 0.39 | 2.71 | 0–2 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Estrela | 0.81 | 1.72 | 2–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Estoril | 2.17 | 0.95 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v FC Porto | 1.59 | 2.60 | 1–4 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Vitória SC | 0.21 | 2.48 | 0–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Moreirense | 0.77 | 0.28 | 0–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at GIL Vicente | 0.76 | 1.74 | 0–2 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | v Benfica | 0.17 | 2.84 | 0–7 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | at Maritimo | 0.67 | 1.39 | 0–1 |
Casa Pia: 2 without xG left out
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 7 |
| 11.58 | xPts | 8.64 |
| 13.87 | xG for | 7.97 |
| 16.40 | xG against | 17.32 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Alverca and Casa Pia
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 6 Nov 2026, 21:23 GMT
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