Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Thu 29 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro meet with the model assessing a 41% chance of a home win, 28% draw and 30% away victory. Expected goals total 2.57, with a gap of 0.21 in Atletico-MG's favour. Both sides face absences—Atletico-MG miss Fred and goalkeeper Everson, while Cruzeiro lack Gabriel Pec and Sinisterra, though Cruzeiro arrive in stronger recent form.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 42%Atletico-MG win
- 28%Draw
- 30%Cruzeiro win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Atletico-MGLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
CruzeiroLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Atletico-MG won 34 of 48 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Mar 2025.
- Cruzeiro won 31 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Mar 2025.
- Atletico-MG won 3 of the last 7 meetings.
- Atletico-MG unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
7 meetings: Atletico-MG 3, draws 3, Cruzeiro 1
Goals: Atletico-MG 8, Cruzeiro 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG | 1–3 |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro | 1–1 |
| 19 May 2025 | Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG | 0–0 |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG | 0–0 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro | 3–0 |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro | 0–1 |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG | 0–1 |
Home and away
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonCoritiba17 Oct 20261–0
- WonAtletico TorqueCONMEBOL Sudamericana14 Oct 20263–0
- WonSantos11 Oct 20262–1
- WonRB Bragantino3 Oct 20261–0
- DrawnChapecoense-sc19 Sep 20261–1
Atletico-MG: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 18 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
CruzeiroCruzeiro away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- WonGremio18 Oct 20264–2
- LostRB Bragantino13 Oct 20262–4
- WonVitoria20 Sep 20263–1
- LostSantos13 Sep 20261–2
- LostVasco DA Gama30 Aug 20261–3
Cruzeiro: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Atletico-MG- Last match
- 3 days before26 Oct 2026 · v Flamengo · Serie A · Brazil
- Next match
- 3 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Gremio · Copa Do Brasil
Cruzeiro- Last match
- 6 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Remo · Serie A · Brazil
- Next match
- 8 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Bahia · Serie A · Brazil
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 29 Mar 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Atletico-MG
| Score | Atletico-MG | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 48 matches | 437 won, 143 drawn, 77 lost in 657 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 9 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches | 77 won, 143 drawn, 437 lost in 657 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 43 matches | 177 won, 202 drawn, 177 lost in 556 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 203 won, 81 drawn, 20 lost in 304 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 12 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 140 won, 198 drawn, 140 lost in 478 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 3 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 20 won, 81 drawn, 203 lost in 304 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 232 won, 68 drawn, 13 lost in 313 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 92 won, 224 drawn, 92 lost in 408 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 236 won, 55 drawn, 2 lost in 293 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches | 77 won, 256 drawn, 77 lost in 410 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 30 won, 21 drawn, 22 lost in 73 matches | 368 won, 292 drawn, 368 lost in 1028 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 174 won, 61 drawn, 37 lost in 272 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 19 drawn, 17 lost in 57 matches | 258 won, 246 drawn, 258 lost in 762 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Atletico-MG | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 32 conceded (94) | 431 scored, 431 conceded (1404) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 16 conceded (37) | 144 scored, 160 conceded (495) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 8 conceded (28) | 127 scored, 127 conceded (414) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 8 conceded (29) | 160 scored, 144 conceded (495) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 18(league sides: 739 times, within 15 minutes 121, by full time 324)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Cruzeiro
| Score | Cruzeiro | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 31 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 42 matches | 437 won, 143 drawn, 77 lost in 657 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 33 matches | 77 won, 143 drawn, 437 lost in 657 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 34 matches | 177 won, 202 drawn, 177 lost in 556 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 14 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches | 140 won, 198 drawn, 140 lost in 478 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 18 drawn, 4 lost in 31 matches | 92 won, 224 drawn, 92 lost in 408 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 20 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches | 77 won, 256 drawn, 77 lost in 410 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 59 matches | 368 won, 292 drawn, 368 lost in 1028 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 46 matches | 258 won, 246 drawn, 258 lost in 762 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Cruzeiro | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 19 conceded (84) | 431 scored, 431 conceded (1404) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 5 conceded (32) | 144 scored, 160 conceded (495) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 5 conceded (32) | 127 scored, 127 conceded (414) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (20) | 160 scored, 144 conceded (495) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 739 times, within 15 minutes 121, by full time 324)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 29 Mar 2025, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- T. Borbas (Muscle Injury) · M. Cassierra (Muscle Injury) · Cuello (Ribs Injury) · Fred (Muscle Injury) · Ruan Tressoldi (Muscle Injury) · Vitor Hugo (Yellow Cards)
- Doubtful
- Everson (Foot Injury)
- Ruled out
- Felipe Morais (Muscle Injury) · Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg) · L. Sinisterra (Muscle Injury)
- Doubtful
- K. Arroyo (Injury) · N. Villarreal (Inactive)
Published 29 Oct 2026, 21:27 GMT · not changed since
All fixtures