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Serie A · Brazil
Atletico-MG
2–1Finished
Santos
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 30

Atletico-MG v Santos match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Atletico-MG are expected to win at home with a 48% model probability, though injuries to key players including goalkeeper Everson and midfielder Fred present uncertainty. The model forecasts 3.04 goals; Atletico-MG hold a 0.48 expected goals advantage over Santos.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 48%Atletico-MG win
  • 25%Draw
  • 27%Santos win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

SantosSantos

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Atletico-MG won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Atletico-MG unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Santos's last 10 away league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Atletico-MG's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Atletico-MG 4, draws 3, Santos 3

Goals: Atletico-MG 13, Santos 11

DateMatchScore
16 Sep 2026Atletico-MG v SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana4–2 PEN
9 Sep 2026Santos v Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana2–0
12 Apr 2026Santos v Atletico-MG1–0
14 Sep 2025Atletico-MG v Santos1–1
17 Apr 2025Santos v Atletico-MG2–0
27 Aug 2023Atletico-MG v Santos2–0
23 Apr 2023Santos v Atletico-MG0–0
6 Oct 2022Santos v Atletico-MG1–2
11 Jun 2022Atletico-MG v Santos1–1
13 Oct 2021Atletico-MG v Santos3–1

Home and away

Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonRB Bragantino3 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnChapecoense-sc19 Sep 20261–1
  • WonSantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana16 Sep 20264–2 PEN
  • WonFluminense12 Sep 20263–1
  • WonVitoria29 Aug 20262–1

Atletico-MG: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Santos

Santos away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSao Paulo3 Oct 20262–1
  • WonRemo19 Sep 20262–1
  • LostAtletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana16 Sep 20262–4 PEN
  • WonInternacional6 Sep 20263–2
  • WonCorinthians30 Aug 20261–0

Santos: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Atletico-MG
Last match
3 days before9 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Paranaense · Serie A · Brazil
Next match
3 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Santos
Last match
3 days before8 Oct 2026 · v Flamengo · Serie A · Brazil
Next match
7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Fluminense · Serie A · Brazil

Injuries and suspensions

  • Atletico-MGAtletico-MGM. Cassierra (Injury) · Cuello (Yellow Cards) · Everson (Foot Injury) · Gustavo Scarpa (Inactive) · T. Perez (Red Card) · Ruan Tressoldi (Muscle Injury) · Fred (Injury)
  • SantosSantosArthur Melo (Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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