Bahia v Mirassol match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bahia are slight favourites to win with a 51% chance over Mirassol's 22%, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The model expects 2.65 goals. Bahia won their recent head-to-head 2-1 away and have better recent form, though both teams have injury concerns.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

51%Bahia win
27%Draw
22%Mirassol win

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Form · newest first

Bahia

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Mirassol

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Bahia unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Both teams scored in 8 of Bahia's last 10 home league games.
Both teams scored in 7 of Mirassol's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Bahia 1, draws 1, Mirassol 1

Goals: Bahia 4, Mirassol 7

Date	Match	Score
11 Apr 2026	Mirassol v Bahia	1–2
31 Aug 2025	Mirassol v Bahia	5–1
13 Apr 2025	Bahia v Mirassol	1–1

Home and away

Bahia

Bahia at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

WonRemo15 Sep 20262–1
WonInternacional30 Aug 20263–2
DrawnVasco DA Gama9 Aug 20260–0
DrawnCorinthians26 Jul 20261–1
WonChapecoense-sc17 Jul 20262–0

Bahia: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 15 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 6 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Mirassol

Mirassol away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

DrawnRB Bragantino7 Oct 20261–1
WonCoritiba6 Sep 20262–1
LostFlamengo2 Sep 20260–2
DrawnSantos23 Aug 20261–1
DrawnLDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores20 Aug 20260–0 PEN

Mirassol: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 9 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 4 of 10
Clean sheets: 0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bahia

Last match: 2 days before9 Oct 2026 · v Palmeiras · Serie A · Brazil
Next match: 7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Flamengo · Serie A · Brazil

Mirassol

Last match: 4 days before7 Oct 2026 · v RB Bragantino · Serie A · Brazil
Next match: 5 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Internacional · Serie A · Brazil

Injuries and suspensions

BahiaLeo Vieira (Knee Injury) · Nicolas Acevedo (Yellow Cards)
MirassolJoao Victor (Red Card) · Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury) · Negueba (Knee Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 23:12 BST · not changed since

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