LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Serie A · Brazil
Bahia
3–2Finished
Sao Paulo
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 GMTMatchday 33 · Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador

Bahia v Sao Paulo match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Thu 29 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bahia host Sao Paulo with the model giving the home side 45% chance, draws 29% and away wins 26%. Bahia's expected goals (1.37) exceed Sao Paulo's (1.00), a gap of 0.37 in Bahia's favour; total expected goals stand at 2.37. Both teams have struggled recently, with one win in five for Bahia and two for Sao Paulo; they drew 2-2 in May 2026.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 45%Bahia win
  • 29%Draw
  • 26%Sao Paulo win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BahiaBahia

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Sao PauloSao Paulo

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sao Paulo won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Sao Paulo without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Bahia 2, draws 2, Sao Paulo 5

Goals: Bahia 6, Sao Paulo 13

DateMatchScore
3 May 2026Sao Paulo v Bahia2–2
26 Oct 2025Sao Paulo v Bahia2–0
31 May 2025Bahia v Sao Paulo2–1
6 Nov 2024Bahia v Sao Paulo0–3
30 Jun 2024Sao Paulo v Bahia3–1
29 Nov 2023Bahia v Sao Paulo0–1
30 Jul 2023Sao Paulo v Bahia0–0
7 Nov 2021Bahia v Sao Paulo1–0
10 Jul 2021Sao Paulo v Bahia1–0

Home and away

Bahia

Bahia at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostFlamengo18 Oct 20260–3
  • WonMirassol11 Oct 20261–0
  • WonRemo15 Sep 20262–1
  • WonInternacional30 Aug 20263–2
  • DrawnVasco DA Gama9 Aug 20260–0

Bahia: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • DrawnMirassol24 Oct 20261–1
  • LostCruzeiro8 Oct 20260–2
  • LostPalmeiras12 Sep 20260–2
  • LostBoca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana9 Sep 20260–1
  • LostChapecoense-sc23 Aug 20260–1

Sao Paulo: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
7 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bahia
Last match
4 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Santos · Serie A · Brazil
Next match
8 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Cruzeiro · Serie A · Brazil
Sao Paulo
Last match
5 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Mirassol · Serie A · Brazil
Next match
7 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Corinthians · Serie A · Brazil

Injuries and suspensions

  • BahiaBahia
    Ruled out
    Kanu (Yellow Cards) · Leo Vieira (Knee Injury)
  • Sao PauloSao Paulo
    Ruled out
    Artur (Inactive) · N. Bosshardt (Inactive) · Buta (Knee Injury) · Cauly (Inactive) · D. Duarte (Knee Injury) · Iago Borduchi (Yellow Cards) · Jonathan Calleri (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    Ferreira (Injury)

Published 28 Oct 2026, 23:27 GMT · not changed since

All fixtures