Benfica v Alverca match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 2 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Benfica are heavy favourites at 78% to win, with expected goals of 2.57 to Alverca's 0.7—a gap of 1.87 in Benfica's favour. The hosts won both recent head-to-head meetings (2-1 each time). Alverca have won three of their last five matches, though they lost most recently.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 78%Benfica win
- 15%Draw
- 7%Alverca win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
BenficaLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
- won2–1at Santa Clara
- won4–1at Omonia Nicosia
- won4–1v Celtic
- won2–0v Vitória SC
- lost1–3at FC Porto
AlvercaLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- lost0–1v Arouca
- drew0–0final 0–2at Tondela
- won4–1at Famalicao
- won1–0v Rio Ave
- won3–1at Nacional
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 244.
- Alverca avoided defeat in 7 of 25 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 10 Aug 2025.
- Benfica unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Benfica's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Benfica 2, draws 0, Alverca 0
Goals: Benfica 4, Alverca 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Benfica v Alverca | 2–1 |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Alverca v Benfica | 1–2 |
Home and away
BenficaBenfica at home
Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- WonCelticUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20264–1
- WonVitória SC11 Oct 20262–0
- WonGIL Vicente13 Sep 20263–1
- WonEstoril31 Aug 20262–1
- WonAarhusUEFA Europa League20 Aug 20263–1
Benfica: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 25 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
AlvercaAlverca away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnTondelaTaça de Portugal18 Oct 20260–0 AET 0–2
- WonFamalicao12 Oct 20264–1
- WonNacional12 Sep 20263–1
- LostSporting CP22 Aug 20261–3
- LostFC Porto9 Aug 20260–2
Alverca: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Benfica- Last match
- 4 days before29 Oct 2026 · v GIL Vicente · Taça da Liga
- Next match
- 3 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League
Alverca- Last match
- 9 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Arouca · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 5 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Casa Pia · Primeira Liga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Alverca
| Score | Alverca | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 2 won, 5 drawn, 18 lost in 25 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 638 lost in 948 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 7 won, 9 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches | 517 won, 386 drawn, 517 lost in 1420 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 7 won, 9 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches | 383 won, 334 drawn, 383 lost in 1100 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Alverca | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 11 conceded (44) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2022) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 25 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,081 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Benfica | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 68Since 10 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 43Since 10 Aug 2025 |
| 150.23 | xG for | 54.14 |
| 160 | Goals scored | 48 |
| 58.41 | xG against | 56.64 |
| 55 | Goals conceded | 65 |
Benfica
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | at Santa Clara | 1.83 | 1.60 | 2–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Vitória SC | 2.76 | 0.43 | 2–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at FC Porto | 0.84 | 1.30 | 1–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v GIL Vicente | 2.90 | 1.11 | 3–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Moreirense | 2.99 | 0.39 | 4–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Maritimo | 1.31 | 0.12 | 3–0 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Estoril | 2.03 | 0.36 | 2–1 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Casa Pia | 2.84 | 0.17 | 7–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Academico Viseu | 3.44 | 1.07 | 2–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Estoril | 4.22 | 1.52 | 3–1 |
Alverca
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Arouca | 0.43 | 2.06 | 0–1 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | at Famalicao | 2.92 | 0.40 | 4–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Rio Ave | 3.30 | 0.29 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Nacional | 1.16 | 2.20 | 3–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v SC Braga | 1.08 | 2.27 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.41 | 1.41 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Sporting CP | 0.41 | 2.12 | 1–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Estrela | 1.94 | 1.36 | 2–2 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at FC Porto | 1.60 | 2.61 | 0–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Famalicao | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0–1 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Benfica | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 22 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 20.53 | xPts | 10.94 |
| 20.94 | xG for | 13.25 |
| 6.55 | xG against | 14.72 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Benfica and Alverca
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 2 Nov 2026, 19:13 GMT · not changed since
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