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Primeira Liga
Benfica
2–0Finished
Vitória SC
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:00 BSTMatchday 8

Benfica v Vitória SC match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Benfica are heavily favoured to beat Vitória SC, with the model giving them a 69% chance of victory. Benfica's form is superior, having won four of their last five matches.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 69%Benfica win
  • 17%Draw
  • 14%Vitória SC win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BenficaBenfica

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Vitória SCVitória SC

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 182 of 240.
  • Vitória SC won 19 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Benfica won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Benfica unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Benfica 8, draws 2, Vitória SC 0

Goals: Benfica 27, Vitória SC 4

DateMatchScore
21 Mar 2026Benfica v Vitória SC3–0
1 Nov 2025Vitória SC v Benfica0–3
19 Apr 2025Vitória SC v Benfica0–3
7 Dec 2024Benfica v Vitória SC1–0
11 Feb 2024Vitória SC v Benfica2–2
2 Sep 2023Benfica v Vitória SC4–0
18 Mar 2023Benfica v Vitória SC5–1
1 Oct 2022Vitória SC v Benfica0–0
27 Feb 2022Benfica v Vitória SC3–0
25 Sep 2021Vitória SC v Benfica1–3

Home and away

Benfica

Benfica at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonGIL Vicente13 Sep 20263–1
  • WonEstoril31 Aug 20262–1
  • WonAarhusUEFA Europa League20 Aug 20263–1
  • DrawnAcademico Viseu9 Aug 20262–2
  • WonHeart Of MidlothianUEFA Europa League6 Aug 20266–1

Benfica: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
25 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Vitória SC

Vitória SC away

Last 5: 0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost

  • LostAcademico Viseu12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostSC Braga31 Aug 20260–1
  • LostSporting CP14 Aug 20262–3
  • LostNacional16 May 20260–2
  • LostSporting CP4 May 20261–5

Vitória SC: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Benfica
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v FC Porto · Primeira Liga
Next match
4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Celtic · UEFA Europa League
Vitória SC
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Moreirense · Primeira Liga
Next match
6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Recreativa de Lamelas · Taça de Portugal

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Vitória SC

ScoreVitória SCLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches621 won, 194 drawn, 112 lost in 927 matches
Conceded first4 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 35 matches112 won, 194 drawn, 621 lost in 927 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 35 matches271 won, 294 drawn, 271 lost in 836 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches198 won, 306 drawn, 198 lost in 702 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches501 won, 386 drawn, 501 lost in 1388 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 43 matches371 won, 334 drawn, 371 lost in 1076 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreVitória SCLeague sides
All matches17 scored, 21 conceded (66)620 scored, 620 conceded (1980)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (21)230 scored, 196 conceded (703)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 6 conceded (22)194 scored, 194 conceded (574)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (23)196 scored, 230 conceded (703)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 18(league sides: 1,054 times, within 15 minutes 171, by full time 469)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 27 Oct 2024

BenficaVitória SC
68Matches with xG67
149.52xG for85.28
163Goals scored82
57.32xG against76.00
55Goals conceded88

Benfica

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Benfica: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at FC Porto0.841.301–3
13 Sep 2026v GIL Vicente2.901.113–1
9 Sep 2026at Moreirense2.990.394–0
5 Sep 2026at Maritimo1.310.123–0
31 Aug 2026v Estoril2.030.362–1
17 Aug 2026at Casa Pia2.840.177–0
9 Aug 2026v Academico Viseu3.441.072–2
16 May 2026at Estoril4.221.523–1
11 May 2026v SC Braga3.190.212–2
2 May 2026at Famalicao1.551.532–2

Vitória SC

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Vitória SC: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Moreirense1.070.521–1
12 Sep 2026at Academico Viseu2.101.831–2
6 Sep 2026v Casa Pia2.480.210–0
31 Aug 2026at SC Braga0.470.930–1
23 Aug 2026v Nacional3.140.421–0
14 Aug 2026at Sporting CP1.241.142–3
8 Aug 2026v Arouca2.280.430–1
16 May 2026at Nacional1.380.930–2
11 May 2026v Casa Pia0.940.880–1
4 May 2026at Sporting CP0.524.221–5

This league season

Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.

BenficaVitória SC
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
16Points in those matches5
16.32xPts13.71
16.35xG for12.78
4.52xG against5.48

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Benfica and Vitória SC

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 11 Oct 2026, 16:58 BST · not changed since

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