Bournemouth v Aston Villa match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 28 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model rates this closely, with expected goals at 1.61 for Bournemouth and 1.49 for Aston Villa. Bournemouth are unbeaten in five matches while Villa have won four of their last five, though form favours the visitors slightly. Their most recent meeting in February ended 1-1 after Villa's 4-0 win in November and Bournemouth's 1-0 victory in May.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Bournemouth win
- 25%Draw
- 34%Aston Villa win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
BournemouthLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
Aston VillaLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Bournemouth won 25 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
- Aston Villa won 47 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Aston Villa won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
- Aston Villa unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Bournemouth 1, draws 3, Aston Villa 4
Goals: Bournemouth 7, Aston Villa 15
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Bournemouth v Aston VillaPremier League | 1–1 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Aston Villa v BournemouthPremier League | 4–0 |
| 10 May 2025 | Bournemouth v Aston VillaPremier League | 0–1 |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Aston Villa v BournemouthPremier League | 1–1 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Aston Villa v BournemouthPremier League | 3–1 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Bournemouth v Aston VillaPremier League | 2–2 |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Aston Villa v BournemouthPremier League | 3–0 |
| 6 Aug 2022 | Bournemouth v Aston VillaPremier League | 2–0 |
Home and away
BournemouthBournemouth at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonAC MilanUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20263–0
- WonSunderlandPremier League18 Oct 20262–0
- WonSturm GrazUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20263–0
- LostLiverpoolPremier League20 Sep 20260–1
- DrawnBrentfordPremier League12 Sep 20262–2
Bournemouth: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Aston VillaAston Villa away
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonNewcastlePremier League17 Oct 20261–0
- WonTottenhamPremier League19 Sep 20263–2
- WonCoventry16 Sep 20263–1
- WonClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20263–2
- DrawnHull CityPremier League5 Sep 20260–0
Aston Villa: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Bournemouth- Last match
- 3 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Manchester United · Premier League
- Next match
- 3 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Leeds · Premier League
Aston Villa- Last match
- 4 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Manchester City · Premier League
- Next match
- 3 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Fulham · Premier League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Bournemouth
Since 2 Nov 2024
| Score | Bournemouth |
|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 42 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 29 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 15 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 24 drawn, 12 lost in 53 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 20 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bournemouth |
|---|---|
| All matches | 33 scored, 25 conceded (78) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 15 conceded (36) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 6 conceded (24) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Aston Villa
Since 3 Nov 2024
| Score | Aston Villa |
|---|---|
| Scored first | 47 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 56 matches |
| Conceded first | 10 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 41 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 20 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches |
| Level at half-time | 21 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 45 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 27 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 28 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 31 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 11 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 26 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 40 won, 13 drawn, 18 lost in 71 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 29 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 55 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Aston Villa |
|---|---|
| All matches | 36 scored, 31 conceded (102) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 19 scored, 14 conceded (49) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 5 conceded (26) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (27) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 24Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Bournemouth and Aston Villa
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 28 Oct 2026, 18:43 GMT · not changed since
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