Casa Pia v Sporting CP match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 30 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Sporting CP are heavy favourites in this fixture, with the model giving them a 71% chance of winning. Casa Pia have won two of their last five matches, while Sporting have drawn one and won one in the same period. Sporting dominated recent meetings, winning 3-0 in January and 2-0 last August; expected goals total 3, with a gap of 1.48 in Sporting's favour.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 11%Casa Pia win
- 18%Draw
- 71%Sporting CP win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Casa PiaLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
- won2–0at Estrela
- won1–0at Alpendorada
- lost0–1v Santa Clara
- won2–1at Estoril
- lost1–4v FC Porto
Sporting CPLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- lost1–2v Academico Viseu
- lost2–3v Lask Linz
- won2–0at Lens
- won3–1at SC Braga
- drew2–2v Arouca
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Casa Pia won 13 of 24 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
- Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 185 of 243.
- Sporting CP won 9 of the last 9 meetings.
- Sporting CP unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Casa Pia 0, draws 0, Sporting CP 9
Goals: Casa Pia 7, Sporting CP 29
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | Sporting CP v Casa Pia | 3–0 |
| 8 Aug 2025 | Casa Pia v Sporting CP | 0–2 |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Casa Pia v Sporting CP | 1–3 |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Sporting CP v Casa Pia | 2–0 |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Sporting CP v Casa Pia | 8–0 |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Casa Pia v Sporting CP | 1–2 |
| 9 Apr 2023 | Casa Pia v Sporting CP | 3–4 |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Sporting CP v Casa Pia | 3–1 |
| 22 Dec 2021 | Casa Pia v Sporting CPTaça de Portugal | 1–2 |
Home and away
Casa PiaCasa Pia at home
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostSanta Clara10 Oct 20260–1
- LostFC Porto12 Sep 20261–4
- LostMoreirense30 Aug 20260–1
- LostBenfica17 Aug 20260–7
- WonTorreense28 May 20262–0
Casa Pia: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 5 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Sporting CPSporting CP away
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonLensUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20262–0
- WonSC Braga9 Oct 20263–1
- DrawnFamalicao13 Sep 20261–1
- WonRio Ave28 Aug 20264–0
- DrawnEstrela8 Aug 20262–2
Sporting CP: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 25 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Casa Pia- Last match
- 6 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Estrela · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 8 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Alverca · Primeira Liga
Sporting CP- Last match
- 3 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Maritimo · Taça da Liga
- Next match
- 4 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Casa Pia
| Score | Casa Pia | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 13 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 632 won, 194 drawn, 115 lost in 941 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 7 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches | 115 won, 194 drawn, 632 lost in 941 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 34 matches | 275 won, 294 drawn, 275 lost in 844 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 31 matches | 201 won, 306 drawn, 201 lost in 708 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 142 won, 294 drawn, 142 lost in 578 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 99 won, 356 drawn, 99 lost in 554 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 15 drawn, 23 lost in 53 matches | 512 won, 386 drawn, 512 lost in 1410 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 45 matches | 378 won, 334 drawn, 378 lost in 1090 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Casa Pia | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 18 conceded (71) | 629 scored, 629 conceded (2008) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 6 conceded (22) | 194 scored, 194 conceded (574) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 8 conceded (31) | 197 scored, 238 conceded (717) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 18(league sides: 1,074 times, within 15 minutes 173, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 68Since 2 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 68Since 1 Nov 2024 |
| 61.71 | xG for | 135.95 |
| 68 | Goals scored | 168 |
| 103.49 | xG against | 53.72 |
| 107 | Goals conceded | 60 |
Casa Pia
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Estrela | 0.81 | 1.72 | 2–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Estoril | 2.17 | 0.95 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v FC Porto | 1.59 | 2.60 | 1–4 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Vitória SC | 0.21 | 2.48 | 0–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Moreirense | 0.77 | 0.28 | 0–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at GIL Vicente | 0.76 | 1.74 | 0–2 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | v Benfica | 0.17 | 2.84 | 0–7 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | at Maritimo | 0.67 | 1.39 | 0–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Rio Ave | 2.34 | 0.61 | 1–1 |
Sporting CP
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Academico Viseu | 1.98 | 0.80 | 1–2 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | at SC Braga | 0.95 | 1.50 | 3–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Arouca | 1.28 | 2.08 | 2–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Famalicao | 2.28 | 0.35 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Nacional | 3.00 | 0.08 | 2–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Rio Ave | 1.66 | 0.47 | 4–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Alverca | 2.12 | 0.41 | 3–1 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | v Vitória SC | 1.14 | 1.24 | 3–2 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | at Estrela | 2.63 | 1.10 | 2–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | v GIL Vicente | 1.65 | 0.68 | 3–0 |
Casa Pia: 2 without xG left out
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 7 | Points in those matches | 18 |
| 8.43 | xPts | 17.78 |
| 7.58 | xG for | 17.04 |
| 14.61 | xG against | 8.03 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Casa Pia and Sporting CP
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 30 Oct 2026, 19:13 GMT · not changed since
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