Estrela v Benfica · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Benfica win
Benfica are heavy favourites with a 74% chance of victory, while the model gives Estrela a 9% chance to win and a 16% chance of a draw. Benfica have won five straight matches. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Benfica and 0.78 for Estrela, a gap of 1.7 in Benfica's favour, with a total of 3.26.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 9%Estrela win
- 16%Draw
- 75%Benfica win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
EstrelaLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
- lost1–2at Moreirense
- lost0–2v Casa Pia
- won2–1at Fazendense
- lost0–1at Arouca
- lost0–2v Academico Viseu
BenficaLast 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats
- won3–1v Lech Poznan
- won1–0v Alverca
- won2–1at Santa Clara
- won4–1at Omonia Nicosia
- won4–1v Celtic
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Estrela won 10 of 20 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 187 of 245.
- Benfica won 7 of the last 7 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Benfica's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
7 meetings: Estrela 0, draws 0, Benfica 7
Goals: Estrela 3, Benfica 22
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Benfica v Estrela | 4–0 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Estrela v Benfica | 0–1 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Estrela v Benfica | 2–3 |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Benfica v EstrelaTaça de Portugal | 7–0 |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Benfica v Estrela | 1–0 |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Estrela v Benfica | 1–4 |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Benfica v Estrela | 2–0 |
Home and away
EstrelaEstrela at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostCasa Pia24 Oct 20260–2
- LostAcademico Viseu20 Sep 20260–2
- WonSC Braga10 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnFamalicao5 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnSporting CP8 Aug 20262–2
Estrela: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
BenficaBenfica away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSanta Clara26 Oct 20262–1
- WonOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20264–1
- LostFC Porto20 Sep 20261–3
- WonAC MilanUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20262–0
- WonMoreirense9 Sep 20264–0
Benfica: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 27 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Estrela- Last match
- 8 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Moreirense · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- Not known
Benfica- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Estrela
| Score | Estrela | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 10 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 639 won, 194 drawn, 116 lost in 949 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 7 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches | 203 won, 308 drawn, 203 lost in 714 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches | 144 won, 296 drawn, 144 lost in 584 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 19 lost in 21 matches | 21 won, 97 drawn, 325 lost in 443 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 19 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 100 won, 358 drawn, 100 lost in 558 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 11 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 48 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 41 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Estrela | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 12 scored, 21 conceded (69) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 8 conceded (24) | 196 scored, 196 conceded (580) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 7 conceded (29) | 197 scored, 240 conceded (723) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 16(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Estrela | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Matches with xG | 69 |
| 73.22 | xG for | 151.91 |
| 69 | Goals scored | 161 |
| 95.94 | xG against | 59.03 |
| 105 | Goals conceded | 55 |
Estrela
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Moreirense | 0.74 | 0.52 | 1–2 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Casa Pia | 1.72 | 0.81 | 0–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Arouca | 1.43 | 0.78 | 0–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Academico Viseu | 0.84 | 2.54 | 0–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Rio Ave | 1.87 | 1.23 | 3–3 |
| 10 Sep 2026 | v SC Braga | 0.57 | 0.61 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Famalicao | 0.94 | 1.80 | 2–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Nacional | 2.10 | 0.83 | 3–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Alverca | 1.36 | 1.94 | 2–2 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | v Sporting CP | 1.10 | 2.63 | 2–2 |
Benfica
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | v Alverca | 1.68 | 0.62 | 1–0 |
| 26 Oct 2026 | at Santa Clara | 1.83 | 1.60 | 2–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Vitória SC | 2.76 | 0.43 | 2–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at FC Porto | 0.84 | 1.30 | 1–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v GIL Vicente | 2.90 | 1.11 | 3–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Moreirense | 2.99 | 0.39 | 4–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Maritimo | 1.31 | 0.12 | 3–0 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Estoril | 2.03 | 0.36 | 2–1 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Casa Pia | 2.84 | 0.17 | 7–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Academico Viseu | 3.44 | 1.07 | 2–2 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Estrela | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 25 |
| 13.47 | xPts | 22.66 |
| 12.67 | xG for | 22.62 |
| 13.69 | xG against | 7.17 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Estrela and Benfica
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 15:23 GMT
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