Famalicao
AroucaFamalicao v Arouca match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 6 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Famalicao host Arouca with the model assessing a 46% chance of a home win compared to 28% for a draw and 26% for an away win. The expected goal tally is 2.56, with Famalicao favoured by 0.38. Famalicao's form is inconsistent while Arouca have won their last two matches.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 46%Famalicao win
- 28%Draw
- 26%Arouca win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
FamalicaoLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
- lost0–3at SC Braga
- won4–0at Rio Ave
- lost0–1at Paredes
- lost1–4v Alverca
- won4–0at Nacional
AroucaLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
- won1–0v Nacional
- won1–0at Alverca
- drew3–3final 4–3at CF Os Belenenses
- won1–0v Estrela
- drew2–2at Sporting CP
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Famalicao won 24 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Arouca won 21 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Arouca won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Famalicao's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Famalicao 3, draws 3, Arouca 4
Goals: Famalicao 9, Arouca 12
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | Famalicao v Arouca | 1–0 |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Arouca v Famalicao | 1–1 |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Arouca v Famalicao | 1–2 |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Famalicao v Arouca | 0–0 |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Arouca v Famalicao | 3–2 |
| 22 Sep 2023 | Famalicao v Arouca | 1–0 |
| 3 Apr 2023 | Famalicao v Arouca | 0–1 |
| 10 Oct 2022 | Arouca v Famalicao | 4–1 |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Famalicao v Arouca | 0–0 |
| 20 Aug 2021 | Arouca v Famalicao | 2–1 |
Home and away
FamalicaoFamalicao at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostAlverca12 Oct 20261–4
- DrawnSporting CP13 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnGIL Vicente30 Aug 20260–0
- LostMaritimo16 Aug 20261–2
- WonAlverca16 May 20261–0
Famalicao: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
AroucaArouca away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- WonAlverca24 Oct 20261–0
- DrawnCF Os BelenensesTaça de Portugal18 Oct 20263–3 AET 4–3
- DrawnSporting CP19 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnEstoril7 Sep 20260–0
- LostFC Porto23 Aug 20260–2
Arouca: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Famalicao- Last match
- 5 days before1 Nov 2026 · v SC Braga · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- Not known
Arouca- Last match
- 5 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Nacional · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 15 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Mafra · Taça de Portugal
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Famalicao
| Score | Famalicao | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 35 matches | 639 won, 194 drawn, 116 lost in 949 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 26 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches | 203 won, 308 drawn, 203 lost in 714 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 23 matches | 144 won, 296 drawn, 144 lost in 584 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches | 100 won, 358 drawn, 100 lost in 558 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 21 won, 17 drawn, 16 lost in 54 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 15 drawn, 11 lost in 46 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Famalicao | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 20 scored, 21 conceded (69) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 240 scored, 197 conceded (723) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 8 conceded (24) | 196 scored, 196 conceded (580) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 14(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Arouca
| Score | Arouca | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 35 matches | 639 won, 194 drawn, 116 lost in 949 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 6 drawn, 20 lost in 30 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 29 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches | 203 won, 308 drawn, 203 lost in 714 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 342 won, 70 drawn, 12 lost in 424 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 21 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 49 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Arouca | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 18 scored, 24 conceded (69) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 5 conceded (24) | 240 scored, 197 conceded (723) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 12 conceded (24) | 196 scored, 196 conceded (580) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 7 conceded (21) | 197 scored, 240 conceded (723) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 18(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Famalicao | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Matches with xG | 68 |
| 84.94 | xG for | 76.39 |
| 88 | Goals scored | 89 |
| 78.68 | xG against | 89.96 |
| 73 | Goals conceded | 101 |
Famalicao
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | at SC Braga | 0.19 | 1.19 | 0–3 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Rio Ave | 1.65 | 0.58 | 4–0 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | v Alverca | 0.40 | 2.92 | 1–4 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Nacional | 1.45 | 1.23 | 4–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Sporting CP | 0.35 | 2.28 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Estrela | 1.80 | 0.94 | 2–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v GIL Vicente | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Santa Clara | 1.05 | 1.36 | 0–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Maritimo | 0.71 | 1.64 | 1–2 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | at Estoril | 1.47 | 1.06 | 1–1 |
Arouca
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | v Nacional | 0.74 | 0.34 | 1–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Alverca | 2.06 | 0.43 | 1–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Estrela | 0.78 | 1.43 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Sporting CP | 2.08 | 1.28 | 2–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.72 | 1.16 | 1–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Estoril | 1.07 | 0.86 | 0–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Maritimo | 1.65 | 0.67 | 2–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at FC Porto | 0.54 | 2.92 | 0–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Moreirense | 2.24 | 0.50 | 4–0 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | at Vitória SC | 0.43 | 2.28 | 1–0 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Famalicao | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 20 |
| 11.21 | xPts | 14.50 |
| 9.30 | xG for | 12.31 |
| 13.48 | xG against | 11.87 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Famalicao and Arouca
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 6 Nov 2026, 19:42 GMT · not changed since
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