FC Porto v Estoril match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
FC Porto are modelled to have a 74% chance of winning against Estoril, with expected goals of 2.33 for the home side and 0.7 for the away side—a gap of 1.63 in Porto's favour. Porto won two of their last five matches, while Estoril lost their last three. Porto have won all four recent head-to-head meetings, most recently 3-1 away in April 2026.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 74%FC Porto win
- 18%Draw
- 8%Estoril win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
FC PortoLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
- won1–0at GIL Vicente
- lost0–1v PSV Eindhoven
- lost2–3at Real Betis
- won2–1at Maritimo
- won3–1v Benfica
EstorilLast 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats
- lost1–3v Moreirense
- drew1–1at Salgueiros
- lost1–2at Academico Viseu
- lost1–2v Casa Pia
- lost0–1at SC Braga
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- FC Porto won 56 of 64 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Estoril won 17 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- FC Porto won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Estoril without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: FC Porto 7, draws 1, Estoril 2
Goals: FC Porto 20, Estoril 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Estoril v FC Porto | 1–3 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | FC Porto v Estoril | 1–0 |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Estoril v FC Porto | 1–2 |
| 3 Nov 2024 | FC Porto v Estoril | 4–0 |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Estoril v FC Porto | 1–0 |
| 9 Jan 2024 | Estoril v FC PortoTaça de Portugal | 0–4 |
| 3 Nov 2023 | FC Porto v Estoril | 0–1 |
| 10 Mar 2023 | FC Porto v Estoril | 3–2 |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Estoril v FC Porto | 1–1 |
| 14 May 2022 | FC Porto v Estoril | 2–0 |
Home and away
FC PortoFC Porto at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20260–1
- WonBenfica20 Sep 20263–1
- LostManchester CityUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20260–2
- WonMoreirense4 Sep 20262–1
- WonArouca23 Aug 20262–0
FC Porto: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 21 scored, 5 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
EstorilEstoril away
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- DrawnSalgueirosTaça de Portugal18 Oct 20261–1 PEN
- LostAcademico Viseu10 Oct 20261–2
- LostSC Braga14 Sep 20260–1
- LostBenfica31 Aug 20261–2
- LostNacional16 Aug 20260–2
Estoril: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 7 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
FC Porto- Last match
- 3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Academico Viseu · Taça da Liga
- Next match
- 4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Napoli · UEFA Champions League
Estoril- Last match
- 6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Moreirense · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 21 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Felgueiras 1932 · Taça de Portugal
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
FC Porto
| Score | FC Porto | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 56 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 64 matches | 634 won, 194 drawn, 115 lost in 943 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 8 drawn, 16 lost in 32 matches | 115 won, 194 drawn, 634 lost in 943 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 30 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 33 matches | 273 won, 97 drawn, 37 lost in 407 matches |
| Level at half-time | 22 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 276 won, 294 drawn, 276 lost in 846 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 21 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 229 won, 20 drawn, 1 lost in 250 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 29 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches | 289 won, 84 drawn, 28 lost in 401 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches | 202 won, 306 drawn, 202 lost in 710 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 30 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches | 262 won, 13 drawn, 0 lost in 275 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 323 won, 97 drawn, 21 lost in 441 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 143 won, 294 drawn, 143 lost in 580 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 34 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 34 matches | 298 won, 9 drawn, 0 lost in 307 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 24 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 339 won, 70 drawn, 12 lost in 421 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 44 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 71 matches | 513 won, 386 drawn, 513 lost in 1412 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 27 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches | 238 won, 83 drawn, 50 lost in 371 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 26 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 47 matches | 379 won, 334 drawn, 379 lost in 1092 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | FC Porto | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 37 scored, 19 conceded (99) | 631 scored, 631 conceded (2012) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 18 scored, 6 conceded (58) | 239 scored, 197 conceded (718) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 6 conceded (21) | 195 scored, 195 conceded (576) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 7 conceded (20) | 197 scored, 239 conceded (718) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 25(league sides: 1,076 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 476)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Estoril
| Score | Estoril | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 634 won, 194 drawn, 115 lost in 943 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 11 drawn, 26 lost in 41 matches | 115 won, 194 drawn, 634 lost in 943 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 25 matches | 276 won, 294 drawn, 276 lost in 846 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 202 won, 306 drawn, 202 lost in 710 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 21 won, 97 drawn, 323 lost in 441 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 12 won, 12 drawn, 16 lost in 40 matches | 513 won, 386 drawn, 513 lost in 1412 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches | 379 won, 334 drawn, 379 lost in 1092 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Estoril | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 22 conceded (71) | 631 scored, 631 conceded (2012) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 12 conceded (34) | 197 scored, 239 conceded (718) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 20(league sides: 1,076 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 476)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 3 Nov 2024
| FC Porto | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Matches with xG | 68 |
| 115.29 | xG for | 85.57 |
| 129 | Goals scored | 99 |
| 53.98 | xG against | 106.82 |
| 48 | Goals conceded | 113 |
FC Porto
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | at GIL Vicente | 1.13 | 0.43 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Maritimo | 2.13 | 0.19 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Benfica | 1.30 | 0.84 | 3–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Casa Pia | 2.60 | 1.59 | 4–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Moreirense | 2.90 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Academico Viseu | 1.47 | 0.80 | 3–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Arouca | 2.92 | 0.54 | 2–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Rio Ave | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Alverca | 2.61 | 1.60 | 2–0 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.85 | 0.47 | 1–0 |
Estoril
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Moreirense | 2.01 | 1.33 | 1–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Academico Viseu | 1.63 | 0.82 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Casa Pia | 0.95 | 2.17 | 1–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at SC Braga | 0.75 | 1.79 | 0–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Arouca | 0.86 | 1.07 | 0–0 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Benfica | 0.36 | 2.03 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Rio Ave | 1.16 | 0.70 | 0–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Nacional | 0.86 | 2.03 | 0–2 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | v Famalicao | 1.06 | 1.47 | 1–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Benfica | 1.52 | 4.22 | 1–3 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| FC Porto | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 27 | Points in those matches | 2 |
| 19.48 | xPts | 10.05 |
| 19.06 | xG for | 9.64 |
| 7.51 | xG against | 13.41 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: FC Porto and Estoril
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 31 Oct 2026, 19:38 GMT · not changed since
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