UEFA Nations League
Italy
19:45
France
Thu 12 Nov 2026 · GMTLeague A · Matchday 5

Italy v France · analysis and preview

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No signal on this match

Most likely: France win

France hold a 42% chance of winning according to the model, compared to 30% for Italy, with a 28% draw probability. Expected goals total 2.57, with France creating a 0.27 advantage over their hosts. Italy have won three of their last five matches; France have won three of four but suffered a recent defeat.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 30%Italy win
  • 28%Draw
  • 42%France win

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Form · newest first

ItalyItaly

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won3–1v Türkiye
  2. drew1–1at France
  3. won4–1at Türkiye
  4. lost0–2v Belgium
  5. won1–0at Greece
FranceFrance

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won4–1v Belgium
  2. drew1–1v Italy
  3. won1–0at Belgium
  4. won1–0at Türkiye
  5. lost4–6v England

Head-to-head

DateMatchScore
2 Oct 2026France — Italy1–1
17 Nov 2024Italy — France1–3

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 16:43 GMT

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