Luton v Leicester match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Luton are slight favourites at home with a 41% win probability, but Leicester are competitive at 32%. The model expects around 2.83 goals with little between the teams in attacking threat.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Luton win
- 27%Draw
- 32%Leicester win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
LutonLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
LeicesterLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Luton won 32 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Leicester won 19 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
- Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Leicester's last 10 away league games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Luton's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
LutonLuton at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonBarnsley20 Oct 20262–1
- LostBradford19 Sep 20260–1
- DrawnLeyton Orient5 Sep 20261–1
- WonStockport County2 Sep 20262–0
- DrawnNotts County22 Aug 20262–2
Luton: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
LeicesterLeicester away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonBromley20 Oct 20264–0
- DrawnBarnsley19 Sep 20261–1
- WonStockport County12 Sep 20264–3
- DrawnMilton Keynes Dons29 Aug 20260–0
- LostIpswichLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–3
Leicester: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 8 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Luton- Last match
- 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Barnsley · League One
- Next match
- 3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Doncaster · League One
Leicester- Last match
- 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Bromley · League One
- Next match
- 3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Wigan · League One
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Luton
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Luton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 32 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 47 matches | 551 won, 160 drawn, 89 lost in 800 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 7 drawn, 33 lost in 45 matches | 89 won, 160 drawn, 551 lost in 800 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 42 matches | 246 won, 236 drawn, 246 lost in 728 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 34 matches | 170 won, 240 drawn, 170 lost in 580 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 11 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches | 127 won, 256 drawn, 127 lost in 510 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 86 won, 290 drawn, 86 lost in 462 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches | 6 won, 70 drawn, 301 lost in 377 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 27 won, 15 drawn, 24 lost in 66 matches | 450 won, 324 drawn, 450 lost in 1224 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 11 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 205 won, 78 drawn, 46 lost in 329 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 23 won, 11 drawn, 19 lost in 53 matches | 330 won, 266 drawn, 330 lost in 926 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Luton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 30 scored, 22 conceded (95) | 502 scored, 502 conceded (1714) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (31) | 176 scored, 193 conceded (619) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 5 conceded (28) | 133 scored, 133 conceded (476) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 7 conceded (36) | 193 scored, 176 conceded (619) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 55 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 26(league sides: 913 times, within 15 minutes 146, by full time 400)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Leicester
Since 25 Oct 2024
| Score | Leicester | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches | 551 won, 160 drawn, 89 lost in 800 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 38 lost in 51 matches | 89 won, 160 drawn, 551 lost in 800 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 30 matches | 246 won, 236 drawn, 246 lost in 728 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches | 33 won, 94 drawn, 241 lost in 368 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 4 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches | 170 won, 240 drawn, 170 lost in 580 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches | 25 won, 93 drawn, 256 lost in 374 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches | 1 won, 4 drawn, 188 lost in 193 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches | 127 won, 256 drawn, 127 lost in 510 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 23 matches | 16 won, 82 drawn, 274 lost in 372 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 0 drawn, 22 lost in 22 matches | 1 won, 7 drawn, 222 lost in 230 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 1 drawn, 27 lost in 28 matches | 1 won, 2 drawn, 246 lost in 249 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 19 drawn, 26 lost in 58 matches | 450 won, 324 drawn, 450 lost in 1224 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 11 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 205 won, 78 drawn, 46 lost in 329 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 39 matches | 330 won, 266 drawn, 330 lost in 926 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Leicester | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 31 conceded (90) | 502 scored, 502 conceded (1714) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 10 conceded (23) | 176 scored, 193 conceded (619) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 8 conceded (22) | 133 scored, 133 conceded (476) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 13 conceded (45) | 193 scored, 176 conceded (619) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 60 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 22(league sides: 913 times, within 15 minutes 146, by full time 400)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 23 Feb 2025, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Luton and Leicester
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 24 Oct 2026, 11:28 BST · not changed since
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