Maritimo v FC Porto match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 22%Maritimo win
- 20%Draw
- 58%FC Porto win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
MaritimoLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
FC PortoLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 182 of 240.
- FC Porto won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Maritimo's last 10 home league games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of FC Porto's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Maritimo 0, draws 1, FC Porto 3
Goals: Maritimo 3, FC Porto 10
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2023 | Maritimo v FC Porto | 0–2 |
| 6 Aug 2022 | FC Porto v Maritimo | 5–1 |
| 30 Jan 2022 | FC Porto v Maritimo | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Maritimo v FC Porto | 1–1 |
Home and away
MaritimoMaritimo at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostBenfica5 Sep 20260–3
- DrawnAcademico Viseu22 Aug 20262–2
- WonCasa Pia8 Aug 20261–0
- LostUnião de LeiriaTaça de Portugal10 Jan 20240–3
- WonMortáguaTaça de Portugal22 Oct 20234–1
Maritimo: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
FC PortoFC Porto away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonCasa Pia12 Sep 20264–1
- WonAcademico Viseu29 Aug 20263–0
- WonRio Ave15 Aug 20262–0
- LostAVS10 May 20261–3
- WonEstrela26 Apr 20262–1
FC Porto: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 21 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Maritimo- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Alcochetense · Taça de Portugal
FC Porto- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Benfica · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Real Betis · UEFA Champions League
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 28 Oct 2024
| Maritimo | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 67 |
| — | xG for | 114.38 |
| — | Goals scored | 131 |
| — | xG against | 53.60 |
| — | Goals conceded | 47 |
FC Porto
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Benfica | 1.30 | 0.84 | 3–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Casa Pia | 2.60 | 1.59 | 4–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Moreirense | 2.90 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Academico Viseu | 1.47 | 0.80 | 3–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Arouca | 2.92 | 0.54 | 2–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Rio Ave | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Alverca | 2.61 | 1.60 | 2–0 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Santa Clara | 0.85 | 0.47 | 1–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at AVS | 3.06 | 0.75 | 1–3 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Alverca | 0.62 | 0.79 | 1–0 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Maritimo | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 21 |
| 7.72 | xPts | 14.91 |
| 6.72 | xG for | 15.80 |
| 9.38 | xG against | 6.89 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Maritimo and FC Porto
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 06:12 BST · not changed since
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