Necaxa v Atlas match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Necaxa's model probability of 44% makes them the home favourites, supported by a 0.27 expected-goals advantage. Both sides are in poor form, having won just once between them in their last five matches. Recent head-to-head results are inconsistent, ranging from a 4-0 Necaxa win to a 1-0 Atlas victory.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 44%Necaxa win
- 26%Draw
- 30%Atlas win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
NecaxaLast 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats
AtlasLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Necaxa won 12 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Mar 2025.
- Atlas won 15 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 23 Feb 2025.
- Atlas won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Necaxa's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Necaxa 2, draws 2, Atlas 6
Goals: Necaxa 10, Atlas 14
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Necaxa v Atlas | 0–1 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Atlas v Necaxa | 3–2 |
| 19 Feb 2025 | Atlas v Necaxa | 0–4 |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Necaxa v Atlas | 0–0 |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Necaxa v Atlas | 2–1 |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Atlas v Necaxa | 0–0 |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Necaxa v Atlas | 1–3 |
| 2 Oct 2022 | Atlas v Necaxa | 1–0 |
| 8 Apr 2022 | Atlas v Necaxa | 2–1 |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Necaxa v Atlas | 0–3 |
Home and away
NecaxaNecaxa at home
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostClub America28 Sep 20262–4
- LostPuebla12 Sep 20260–1
- LostCruz Azul29 Aug 20261–3
- LostLeon18 Aug 20261–2
- WonMonterrey27 Jul 20262–1
Necaxa: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
AtlasAtlas away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonClub Tijuana26 Sep 20263–2
- LostToluca13 Sep 20262–5
- WonCruz Azul23 Aug 20262–0
- WonSantos Laguna26 Jul 20261–0
- WonLeon18 Jul 20263–2
Atlas: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Necaxa- Last match
- 6 days before12 Oct 2026 · v CF Pachuca · Liga MX
- Next match
- 4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX
Atlas- Last match
- 6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX
- Next match
- 5 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Club America · Liga MX
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Necaxa
Since 2 Mar 2025
| Score | Necaxa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 12 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 320 won, 98 drawn, 78 lost in 496 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 7 drawn, 20 lost in 30 matches | 78 won, 98 drawn, 320 lost in 496 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches | 140 won, 164 drawn, 140 lost in 444 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 9 won, 11 drawn, 19 lost in 39 matches | 279 won, 208 drawn, 279 lost in 766 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 8 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 34 matches | 207 won, 172 drawn, 207 lost in 586 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Necaxa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 16 scored, 28 conceded (55) | 351 scored, 351 conceded (1062) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 11 conceded (23) | 134 scored, 110 conceded (371) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 19(league sides: 572 times, within 15 minutes 104, by full time 267)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Atlas
Since 23 Feb 2025
| Score | Atlas | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 320 won, 98 drawn, 78 lost in 496 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 30 matches | 78 won, 98 drawn, 320 lost in 496 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches | 140 won, 164 drawn, 140 lost in 444 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 23 matches | 95 won, 158 drawn, 95 lost in 348 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches | 279 won, 208 drawn, 279 lost in 766 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 207 won, 172 drawn, 207 lost in 586 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Atlas | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 16 scored, 24 conceded (56) | 351 scored, 351 conceded (1062) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 6 conceded (20) | 134 scored, 110 conceded (371) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 17(league sides: 572 times, within 15 minutes 104, by full time 267)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 23 Feb 2025, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Necaxa and Atlas
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 17 Oct 2026, 00:57 BST · not changed since
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