Santa Clara v Benfica match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 26 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Benfica are strong favourites, with the model estimating a 59% chance of an away win compared to Santa Clara's 17%. Expected goals total 2.66 with a gap of 0.94 in Benfica's favour. Santa Clara have won three of their last five matches, while Benfica won two of their last five but lost most recently; in their last three head-to-head meetings, Benfica won two and drew one.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 17%Santa Clara win
- 24%Draw
- 59%Benfica win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
Santa ClaraLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
BenficaLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Santa Clara won 23 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
- Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 185 of 243.
- Benfica won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
- Santa Clara unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Santa Clara 0, draws 1, Benfica 7
Goals: Santa Clara 4, Benfica 21
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | Santa Clara v Benfica | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2025 | Benfica v Santa Clara | 1–1 |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Santa Clara v Benfica | 0–1 |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Benfica v Santa Clara | 4–1 |
| 27 May 2023 | Benfica v Santa Clara | 3–0 |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Santa Clara v Benfica | 0–3 |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Benfica v Santa Clara | 2–1 |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Santa Clara v Benfica | 0–5 |
Home and away
Santa ClaraSanta Clara at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnSC Braga20 Sep 20260–0
- WonRio Ave6 Sep 20264–0
- WonFamalicao23 Aug 20261–0
- DrawnNacional10 Aug 20262–2
- WonNacional11 May 20262–0
Santa Clara: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
BenficaBenfica away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20264–1
- LostFC Porto20 Sep 20261–3
- WonAC MilanUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20262–0
- WonMoreirense9 Sep 20264–0
- WonMaritimo5 Sep 20263–0
Benfica: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 27 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Santa Clara- Last match
- 8 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Mafra · Taça de Portugal
- Next match
- 6 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Maritimo · Primeira Liga
Benfica- Last match
- 4 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 3 days after29 Oct 2026 · v GIL Vicente · Taça da Liga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 4 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Santa Clara
| Score | Santa Clara | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 32 matches | 632 won, 194 drawn, 114 lost in 940 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 7 drawn, 21 lost in 30 matches | 114 won, 194 drawn, 632 lost in 940 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 37 matches | 275 won, 294 drawn, 275 lost in 844 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches | 201 won, 306 drawn, 201 lost in 708 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 27 won, 84 drawn, 288 lost in 399 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches | 142 won, 294 drawn, 142 lost in 578 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 21 won, 97 drawn, 321 lost in 439 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 12 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 99 won, 356 drawn, 99 lost in 554 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches | 12 won, 70 drawn, 337 lost in 419 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 48 matches | 511 won, 386 drawn, 511 lost in 1408 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 40 matches | 377 won, 334 drawn, 377 lost in 1088 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Santa Clara | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 18 scored, 13 conceded (68) | 629 scored, 629 conceded (2006) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 4 conceded (22) | 238 scored, 197 conceded (716) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (20) | 194 scored, 194 conceded (574) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 4 conceded (26) | 197 scored, 238 conceded (716) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 13(league sides: 1,072 times, within 15 minutes 173, by full time 474)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Santa Clara | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 67Since 4 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 69Since 27 Oct 2024 |
| 75.31 | xG for | 152.28 |
| 67 | Goals scored | 165 |
| 64.98 | xG against | 57.75 |
| 67 | Goals conceded | 55 |
Santa Clara
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Casa Pia | 0.61 | 0.43 | 1–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v SC Braga | 1.04 | 0.50 | 0–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Arouca | 1.16 | 0.72 | 2–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Rio Ave | 1.80 | 0.32 | 4–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Alverca | 1.41 | 0.41 | 1–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Famalicao | 1.36 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Academico Viseu | 1.27 | 0.58 | 1–0 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | v Nacional | 1.74 | 1.23 | 2–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at FC Porto | 0.47 | 0.85 | 0–1 |
| 11 May 2026 | v Nacional | 1.37 | 0.61 | 2–0 |
Benfica
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Vitória SC | 2.76 | 0.43 | 2–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at FC Porto | 0.84 | 1.30 | 1–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v GIL Vicente | 2.90 | 1.11 | 3–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Moreirense | 2.99 | 0.39 | 4–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Maritimo | 1.31 | 0.12 | 3–0 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Estoril | 2.03 | 0.36 | 2–1 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Casa Pia | 2.84 | 0.17 | 7–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Academico Viseu | 3.44 | 1.07 | 2–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Estoril | 4.22 | 1.52 | 3–1 |
| 11 May 2026 | v SC Braga | 3.19 | 0.21 | 2–2 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Santa Clara | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 18 | Points in those matches | 19 |
| 14.71 | xPts | 19.00 |
| 10.39 | xG for | 19.11 |
| 5.24 | xG against | 4.95 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Santa Clara and Benfica
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 26 Oct 2026, 12:53 GMT · not changed since
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