Sao Paulo v Corinthians match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Thu 5 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives São Paulo a 46% chance of winning this derby, with Corinthians at 25% and a draw at 29%. Expected goals are 1.37 for the hosts and 0.96 for visitors, with a gap of 0.41 in São Paulo's favour. Form is mixed for both—São Paulo won twice in five, Corinthians once, though Corinthians won their last two visits here (3–2 and 3–1).
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 46%Sao Paulo win
- 29%Draw
- 25%Corinthians win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Sao PauloLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- lost2–3at Bahia
- drew1–1at Mirassol
- won1–0v Vasco DA Gama
- won2–1v Vitoria
- lost0–2at Cruzeiro
CorinthiansLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- won2–0v Mirassol
- lost2–3at Vasco DA Gama
- drew1–1v Vitoria
- lost1–4at Palmeiras
- lost1–2at Internacional
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Sao Paulo won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- Corinthians without a win in their last 5 away games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Corinthians's last 10 away league games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Sao Paulo's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Sao Paulo 4, draws 4, Corinthians 2
Goals: Sao Paulo 16, Corinthians 13
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Corinthians v Sao Paulo | 3–2 |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Corinthians v Sao Paulo | 3–1 |
| 20 Jul 2025 | Sao Paulo v Corinthians | 2–0 |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Sao Paulo v Corinthians | 3–1 |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Corinthians v Sao Paulo | 2–2 |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Sao Paulo v Corinthians | 2–1 |
| 14 May 2023 | Corinthians v Sao Paulo | 1–1 |
| 11 Sep 2022 | Sao Paulo v Corinthians | 1–1 |
| 22 May 2022 | Corinthians v Sao Paulo | 1–1 |
| 19 Oct 2021 | Sao Paulo v Corinthians | 1–0 |
Home and away
Sao PauloSao Paulo at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonVasco DA Gama18 Oct 20261–0
- WonVitoria11 Oct 20262–1
- LostSantos3 Oct 20261–2
- WonInternacional20 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnBoca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana16 Sep 20261–1
Sao Paulo: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
CorinthiansCorinthians away
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- LostVasco DA Gama24 Oct 20262–3
- LostPalmeiras11 Oct 20261–4
- LostInternacional7 Oct 20261–2
- LostFlamengo13 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnEstudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores10 Sep 20261–1
Corinthians: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Sao Paulo- Last match
- 7 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Bahia · Serie A · Brazil
- Next match
- 15 days after20 Nov 2026 · v Fluminense · Serie A · Brazil
Corinthians- Last match
- 6 days before30 Oct 2026 · v Mirassol · Serie A · Brazil
- Next match
- 14 days after19 Nov 2026 · v Botafogo · Serie A · Brazil
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- Artur (Back Injury) · N. Bosshardt (Knee Injury) · Buta (Knee Injury) · D. Duarte (Knee Injury) · Marcos Antonio (Ankle Injury) · Sabino (Yellow Cards)
- Doubtful
- Ferreira (Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Depay (Inactive) · Gabriel Paulista (Inactive) · Kayke (Knee Injury) · Z. Labyad (Knee Injury) · Matheuzinho (Yellow Cards) · Raniele (Inactive)
- Doubtful
- Alex Santana (Inactive)
Published 4 Nov 2026, 23:28 GMT · not changed since
All fixtures