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Primeira Liga
SC Braga
1–3Finished
Sporting CP
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 20:15 BST

SC Braga v Sporting CP match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 9 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 43%SC Braga win
  • 25%Draw
  • 32%Sporting CP win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SC BragaSC Braga

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Sporting CPSporting CP

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • SC Braga won 44 of 62 matches in which they scored first, since 23 Oct 2024.
  • Primeira Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 182 of 240.
  • Sporting CP won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • SC Braga unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: SC Braga 1, draws 5, Sporting CP 4

Goals: SC Braga 13, Sporting CP 25

DateMatchScore
7 Mar 2026SC Braga v Sporting CP2–2
5 Oct 2025Sporting CP v SC Braga1–1
7 Apr 2025Sporting CP v SC Braga1–1
10 Nov 2024SC Braga v Sporting CP2–4
11 Feb 2024Sporting CP v SC Braga5–0
3 Sep 2023SC Braga v Sporting CP1–1
1 Feb 2023Sporting CP v SC Braga5–0
7 Aug 2022SC Braga v Sporting CP3–3
22 Jan 2022Sporting CP v SC Braga1–2
14 Aug 2021SC Braga v Sporting CP1–2

Home and away

SC Braga

SC Braga at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonEstoril14 Sep 20261–0
  • WonVitória SC31 Aug 20261–0
  • WonAustria ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20262–0
  • WonDinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League6 Aug 20261–0
  • WonŽelezničar PančevoUEFA Europa Conference League30 Jul 20264–0

SC Braga: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Sporting CP

Sporting CP away

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnFamalicao13 Sep 20261–1
  • WonRio Ave28 Aug 20264–0
  • DrawnEstrela8 Aug 20262–2
  • WonRio Ave11 May 20264–1
  • DrawnAVS26 Apr 20261–1

Sporting CP: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

SC Braga
Last match
19 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Santa Clara · Primeira Liga
Next match
6 days after15 Oct 2026 · v FC Copenhagen · UEFA Europa Conference League
Sporting CP
Last match
20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Arouca · Primeira Liga
Next match
4 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Lens · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 23 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

SC Braga

ScoreSC BragaLeague sides
Scored first44 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 62 matches618 won, 194 drawn, 110 lost in 922 matches
Conceded first3 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 24 matches110 won, 194 drawn, 618 lost in 922 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches264 won, 97 drawn, 34 lost in 395 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches268 won, 294 drawn, 268 lost in 830 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches280 won, 84 drawn, 26 lost in 390 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches194 won, 306 drawn, 194 lost in 694 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes22 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches313 won, 97 drawn, 21 lost in 431 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 27 matches134 won, 294 drawn, 134 lost in 562 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches294 won, 9 drawn, 0 lost in 303 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches327 won, 70 drawn, 12 lost in 409 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches95 won, 356 drawn, 95 lost in 546 matches
Level after 15 minutes30 won, 19 drawn, 15 lost in 64 matches496 won, 386 drawn, 496 lost in 1378 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches230 won, 83 drawn, 49 lost in 362 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 39 matches368 won, 334 drawn, 368 lost in 1070 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSC BragaLeague sides
All matches33 scored, 20 conceded (91)615 scored, 615 conceded (1970)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 11 conceded (45)229 scored, 196 conceded (702)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 8 conceded (28)190 scored, 190 conceded (566)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 22(league sides: 1,050 times, within 15 minutes 171, by full time 466)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

SC BragaSporting CP
66Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 26 Oct 2024
104.01xG for136.62
113Goals scored167
66.28xG against51.62
65Goals conceded57

SC Braga

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
SC Braga: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Santa Clara0.501.040–0
14 Sep 2026v Estoril1.790.751–0
10 Sep 2026at Estrela0.610.571–2
5 Sep 2026at Alverca2.271.082–1
31 Aug 2026v Vitória SC0.930.471–0
9 Aug 2026at Moreirense1.320.222–2
16 May 2026v Estrela2.410.732–2
11 May 2026at Benfica0.213.192–2
3 May 2026v Estoril0.410.891–1
26 Apr 2026at Santa Clara0.152.551–2

Sporting CP

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sporting CP: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Arouca1.282.082–2
13 Sep 2026at Famalicao2.280.351–1
5 Sep 2026v Nacional3.000.082–0
28 Aug 2026at Rio Ave1.660.474–0
22 Aug 2026v Alverca2.120.413–1
14 Aug 2026v Vitória SC1.141.243–2
8 Aug 2026at Estrela2.631.102–2
16 May 2026v GIL Vicente1.650.683–0
11 May 2026at Rio Ave1.580.704–1
4 May 2026v Vitória SC4.220.525–1

This league season

Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.

SC BragaSporting CP
6 of 6Matches with xG7 of 7
11Points in those matches15
10.38xPts14.64
7.42xG for14.11
4.13xG against5.73

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: SC Braga and Sporting CP

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 9 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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