Vitória SC v FC Porto · analysis and preview
Add to JournalNo signal on this match
Most likely: FC Porto win
The model gives FC Porto a 56% chance of winning, with Vitória SC at 18% and a draw at 26%. Porto's expected goals are 1.65 to Vitória's 0.83, a gap of 0.82 in Porto's favour. Porto have won three of their last five matches, while Vitória have won just one of theirs.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 18%Vitória SC win
- 26%Draw
- 56%FC Porto win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
Vitória SCLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- drew0–0at GIL Vicente
- won5–0v Maritimo
- won1–0at Recreativa de Lamelas
- lost0–2at Benfica
- drew1–1v Moreirense
FC PortoLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
- won4–1v Napoli
- won4–0v Estoril
- won1–0at GIL Vicente
- lost0–1v PSV Eindhoven
- lost2–3at Real Betis
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Vitória SC won 20 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- FC Porto won 53 of 60 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- FC Porto won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Vitória SC's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Vitória SC 1, draws 1, FC Porto 8
Goals: Vitória SC 5, FC Porto 19
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Vitória SC v FC Porto | 0–1 |
| 11 Aug 2025 | FC Porto v Vitória SC | 3–0 |
| 24 Feb 2025 | FC Porto v Vitória SC | 1–1 |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Vitória SC v FC Porto | 0–3 |
| 17 Apr 2024 | FC Porto v Vitória SCTaça de Portugal | 3–1 |
| 7 Apr 2024 | FC Porto v Vitória SC | 1–2 |
| 3 Apr 2024 | Vitória SC v FC PortoTaça de Portugal | 0–1 |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Vitória SC v FC Porto | 1–2 |
| 27 May 2023 | FC Porto v Vitória SC | 3–0 |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Vitória SC v FC Porto | 0–1 |
Home and away
Vitória SCVitória SC at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonMaritimo23 Oct 20265–0
- DrawnMoreirense20 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnCasa Pia6 Sep 20260–0
- WonNacional23 Aug 20261–0
- LostArouca8 Aug 20260–1
Vitória SC: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 6 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
FC PortoFC Porto away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonGIL Vicente24 Oct 20261–0
- LostReal BetisUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20262–3
- WonMaritimo10 Oct 20262–1
- WonCasa Pia12 Sep 20264–1
- WonAcademico Viseu29 Aug 20263–0
FC Porto: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 22 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Vitória SC- Last match
- 6 days before2 Nov 2026 · v GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v SC Braga · Taça de Portugal
FC Porto- Last match
- 4 days before4 Nov 2026 · v Napoli · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 12 days after20 Nov 2026 · v Paredes · Taça de Portugal
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Vitória SC
| Score | Vitória SC | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches | 639 won, 194 drawn, 116 lost in 949 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 24 lost in 36 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 35 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches | 203 won, 308 drawn, 203 lost in 714 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches | 144 won, 296 drawn, 144 lost in 584 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 44 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Vitória SC | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 20 scored, 20 conceded (68) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 240 scored, 197 conceded (723) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 6 conceded (24) | 196 scored, 196 conceded (580) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 11 conceded (24) | 197 scored, 240 conceded (723) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 18(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
FC Porto
| Score | FC Porto | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 53 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 60 matches | 639 won, 194 drawn, 116 lost in 949 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 29 matches | 116 won, 194 drawn, 639 lost in 949 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 27 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches | 275 won, 97 drawn, 38 lost in 410 matches |
| Level at half-time | 23 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 33 matches | 279 won, 296 drawn, 279 lost in 854 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 20 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 230 won, 20 drawn, 1 lost in 251 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 26 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 292 won, 84 drawn, 29 lost in 405 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 14 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 203 won, 308 drawn, 203 lost in 714 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 28 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches | 265 won, 13 drawn, 0 lost in 278 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 24 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches | 325 won, 97 drawn, 21 lost in 443 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 32 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 32 matches | 301 won, 9 drawn, 0 lost in 310 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 23 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 342 won, 70 drawn, 12 lost in 424 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 41 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 64 matches | 518 won, 388 drawn, 518 lost in 1424 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 239 won, 83 drawn, 50 lost in 372 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 25 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 41 matches | 384 won, 336 drawn, 384 lost in 1104 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | FC Porto | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 33 scored, 18 conceded (90) | 633 scored, 633 conceded (2026) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 6 conceded (55) | 240 scored, 197 conceded (723) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 20(league sides: 1,082 times, within 15 minutes 174, by full time 477)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Vitória SC | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Matches with xG | 68 |
| 86.09 | xG for | 115.48 |
| 84 | Goals scored | 129 |
| 78.48 | xG against | 53.61 |
| 88 | Goals conceded | 48 |
Vitória SC
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | at GIL Vicente | 0.48 | 0.73 | 0–0 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | v Maritimo | 1.82 | 0.54 | 5–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Benfica | 0.43 | 2.76 | 0–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Moreirense | 1.07 | 0.52 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Academico Viseu | 2.10 | 1.83 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Casa Pia | 2.48 | 0.21 | 0–0 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at SC Braga | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Nacional | 3.14 | 0.42 | 1–0 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | at Sporting CP | 1.24 | 1.14 | 2–3 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | v Arouca | 2.28 | 0.43 | 0–1 |
FC Porto
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Estoril | 3.13 | 0.64 | 4–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at GIL Vicente | 1.13 | 0.43 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Maritimo | 2.13 | 0.19 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Benfica | 1.30 | 0.84 | 3–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Casa Pia | 2.60 | 1.59 | 4–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Moreirense | 2.90 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Academico Viseu | 1.47 | 0.80 | 3–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Arouca | 2.92 | 0.54 | 2–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Rio Ave | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Alverca | 2.61 | 1.60 | 2–0 |
This league season
Primeira Liga matches since 7 Aug 2026.
| Vitória SC | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 30 |
| 17.25 | xPts | 22.14 |
| 15.51 | xG for | 22.19 |
| 9.51 | xG against | 8.15 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Vitória SC and FC Porto
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 15:38 GMT
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