Questions, answered plainly.

Ledger publishes pre-match analysis of football matches at ledgerapp.uk/football. For every analysed match in the leagues it covers, a statistical model estimates how likely a home win, a draw and an away win are, before kick-off. The match page also shows recent form, past meetings between the two teams and injuries when that information is available. It is analysis, not betting advice.

From past match results only. The main model works out an average number of goals for each team from their recent scoring and conceding, the strength of their opponents, home advantage and the competition, and turns that into the chance of each result. When the main model cannot be used for a match, for example because its competition does not yet have enough past matches, a simpler team rating built from results is used instead. A team with fewer than five past matches gets no estimate from either model. Bookmaker prices are not used for these numbers. A page labelled “Bookmaker odds, margin removed” is the exception: it shows the chances the bookmaker's odds imply, with the margin removed. The Methodology page explains both models and their limits.

Every analysed match page is free to read, with no account needed: the estimate of each result, recent form, past meetings and injuries. PRO is an optional subscription for the full analysis of each match: the model's estimates for more outcomes, such as total goals and both teams to score, where the goal model has them, and a written preview where one is available.

A private record of bets you place elsewhere. You add each bet, mark how it ended after the match, and keep your history in one place. Ledger does not take bets. To use the Journal, sign in with your email.

In a web browser. Sign in with your email at ledgerapp.uk/football, choose a weekly, monthly or yearly plan, and pay through Stripe. Prices are shown before you pay. PRO starts as soon as you pay and renews automatically until you cancel.

Go to Account → Manage subscription at ledgerapp.uk/football, or email support@ledgerapp.uk. PRO stays active until the end of the period you have paid for. For a subscription bought in the iPhone app, see the Support page.

No. An estimate says how often a result happens across many similar matches. It says nothing certain about the next one, and any match can go either way.

Selected leagues. The current list is on the Leagues page at ledgerapp.uk/football/leagues.

Before kick-off. Until kick-off, the estimate of each result changes only when the model is refitted after match results are added or corrected, or the model itself changes; new prices and team news do not change it. A page labelled “Bookmaker odds, margin removed” is the exception: its figures are the bookmaker's and are updated when new prices are taken. At kick-off the analysis is locked and is not changed afterwards.

You can read match pages without an account. If you sign in, we store your email and what your account needs, such as your Journal and your subscription record. Analytics cookies are used only if you accept them. The privacy policy has the details.