1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Bayer Leverkusen win
Bayer Leverkusen hold a significant advantage with the model giving them a 50% chance of winning or drawing. Köln have claimed just one win in five matches, while Leverkusen have been more consistent with two wins in their last five. The model expects 3.13 combined goals with a gap of 0.57 in Leverkusen's favour.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 26%1. FC Köln win
- 24%Draw
- 50%Bayer Leverkusen win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
1. FC KölnLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- drew1–1at Union Berlin
- won5–0v Union Berlin
- drew0–0v FC Schalke 04
- lost0–1at Eintracht Frankfurt
- won2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bayer LeverkusenLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
- lost0–1v Marseille
- lost2–4v VfB Stuttgart
- won5–2v 1. FC Nürnberg
- lost0–3at 1899 Hoffenheim
- won2–0at OFI
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- 1. FC Köln avoided defeat in 10 of 25 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 24 Aug 2025.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 41 of 57 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
- 1. FC Köln unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: 1. FC Köln 2, draws 2, Bayer Leverkusen 5
Goals: 1. FC Köln 9, Bayer Leverkusen 16
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Köln | 2–0 |
| 5 Feb 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC KölnDFB Pokal | 2–2 AET 3–2 |
| 3 Mar 2024 | 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Köln | 3–0 |
| 5 May 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Köln | 1–2 |
| 9 Nov 2022 | 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Köln | 0–1 |
| 24 Oct 2021 | 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 |
Home and away
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonUnion BerlinDFB Pokal27 Oct 20265–0
- DrawnFC Schalke 0424 Oct 20260–0
- WonBorussia Mönchengladbach11 Oct 20262–1
- DrawnWerder Bremen12 Sep 20261–1
- Won1899 Hoffenheim29 Aug 20263–2
1. FC Köln: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- Lost1899 Hoffenheim25 Oct 20260–3
- WonOFIUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20262–0
- WonLech PoznanUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20264–0
- WonFSV Mainz 0510 Oct 20264–3
- DrawnFC Augsburg12 Sep 20262–2
Bayer Leverkusen: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 21 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
1. FC Köln- Last match
- 7 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Union Berlin · Bundesliga
- Next match
- 12 days after20 Nov 2026 · v Bayern München · Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Marseille · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
1. FC Köln
Since 24 Aug 2025
| Score | 1. FC Köln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 2 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 25 matches | 128 won, 199 drawn, 615 lost in 942 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 9 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 31 matches | 494 won, 366 drawn, 494 lost in 1354 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 3 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 24 matches | 326 won, 318 drawn, 326 lost in 970 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | 1. FC Köln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 14 conceded (43) | 724 scored, 724 conceded (1992) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 7 conceded (22) | 271 scored, 302 conceded (743) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 19(league sides: 1,137 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 518)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bayer Leverkusen
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | Bayer Leverkusen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 41 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 57 matches | 615 won, 199 drawn, 128 lost in 942 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 7 drawn, 16 lost in 29 matches | 128 won, 199 drawn, 615 lost in 942 matches |
| 2+ goals up at half-time | 19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 204 won, 12 drawn, 3 lost in 219 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 12 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 271 won, 94 drawn, 56 lost in 421 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 209 won, 294 drawn, 209 lost in 712 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 299 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 319 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 9 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 252 won, 92 drawn, 30 lost in 374 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 156 won, 294 drawn, 156 lost in 606 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 27 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches | 335 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 345 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 14 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 275 won, 96 drawn, 22 lost in 393 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 29 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches | 363 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 366 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 15 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 289 won, 78 drawn, 15 lost in 382 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 54 matches | 494 won, 366 drawn, 494 lost in 1354 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 12 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 250 won, 83 drawn, 62 lost in 395 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches | 326 won, 318 drawn, 326 lost in 970 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bayer Leverkusen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 33 scored, 26 conceded (90) | 724 scored, 724 conceded (1992) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 15 conceded (50) | 302 scored, 271 conceded (743) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 4 conceded (24) | 271 scored, 302 conceded (743) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,137 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 518)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| 1. FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 42Since 24 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 67Since 9 Nov 2024 |
| 64.53 | xG for | 119.47 |
| 58 | Goals scored | 138 |
| 67.98 | xG against | 85.79 |
| 75 | Goals conceded | 91 |
1. FC Köln
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | at Union Berlin | 1.22 | 0.91 | 1–1 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v FC Schalke 04 | 1.29 | 0.66 | 0–0 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.82 | 1.84 | 0–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.32 | 1.17 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Hamburger SV | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Werder Bremen | 1.65 | 1.12 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at VfB Stuttgart | 2.86 | 3.47 | 1–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.95 | 1.88 | 3–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Bayern München | 0.98 | 3.05 | 1–5 |
| 10 May 2026 | v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.17 | 1.36 | 1–3 |
Bayer Leverkusen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v VfB Stuttgart | 2.07 | 2.88 | 2–4 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at 1899 Hoffenheim | 0.57 | 3.46 | 0–3 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v SC Freiburg | 1.64 | 1.21 | 2–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at FSV Mainz 05 | 2.09 | 3.13 | 4–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v RB Leipzig | 2.27 | 0.97 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at FC Augsburg | 2.64 | 1.11 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Union Berlin | 3.11 | 0.39 | 4–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at SV Elversberg | 1.88 | 1.27 | 2–3 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Hamburger SV | 3.27 | 1.79 | 1–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at VfB Stuttgart | 0.54 | 3.04 | 1–3 |
This league season
Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.
| 1. FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 11.27 | xPts | 12.72 |
| 12.52 | xG for | 16.27 |
| 12.50 | xG against | 14.42 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:33 GMT
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