Bundesliga match analysis

The Bundesliga is the top division of German football. Eighteen clubs play each other home and away, the bottom two are relegated, and the club finishing sixteenth meets the third-placed club of the second division in a two-legged play-off.

Ledger publishes an analysis page for each upcoming Bundesliga match it covers: the model's estimated chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, with a short written summary where one is available. Matches the model flags for a closer look carry a Signal found badge, and the full reasoning behind them is part of PRO. Finished matches stay listed with the final score.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 19:33 GMT · times in UK time

Upcoming matches

Each percentage is our estimate of how likely that result is.

Today · Fri 6 Nov

1 match

Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach LiveNo qualifying signalMost likely: Hamburger SV win43%chance of that result Live

Sat 7 Nov

5 matches

Borussia DortmundSV Elversberg14:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Borussia Dortmund win69%chance of that result14:30
RB LeipzigFC Augsburg14:30No qualifying signalMost likely: RB Leipzig win63%chance of that result14:30
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München14:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Bayern München win71%chance of that result14:30
SC Paderborn 07Eintracht Frankfurt14:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Eintracht Frankfurt win39%chance of that result14:30
VfB StuttgartWerder Bremen17:30No qualifying signalMost likely: VfB Stuttgart win61%chance of that result17:30

Sun 8 Nov

3 matches

1. FC KölnBayer Leverkusen14:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Bayer Leverkusen win50%chance of that result14:30
SC FreiburgUnion Berlin16:30No qualifying signalMost likely: SC Freiburg win64%chance of that result16:30
1899 HoffenheimFC Schalke 0418:30No qualifying signalMost likely: 1899 Hoffenheim win60%chance of that result18:30

Fri 20 Nov

1 match

Bayern München1. FC Köln19:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Bayern München win88%chance of that result19:30

Table

Table as of 6 Nov 2026, 05:17 GMT · Source: API-Football

Bundesliga table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	8	5	3	0	+19	18	DrawnWonWonDrawnWon
2	Borussia Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+8	18	DrawnWonDrawnDrawnWon
3	SC Freiburg	8	5	1	2	+8	16	WonLostLostWonDrawn
4	RB Leipzig	8	5	0	3	+11	15	WonWonLostWonLost
5	Werder Bremen	8	4	3	1	+3	15	WonWonDrawnDrawnWon
6	Bayer Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+2	13	LostLostWonWonWon
7	SV Elversberg	8	4	1	3	0	13	WonLostWonLostDrawn
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	3	2	3	-5	11	WonLostWonLostDrawn
9	FSV Mainz 05	8	3	1	4	0	10	LostLostWonLostWon
10	FC Augsburg	8	2	3	3	+3	9	LostDrawnLostDrawnLost
11	VfB Stuttgart	8	3	0	5	-1	9	WonLostLostWonLost
12	1899 Hoffenheim	8	3	0	5	-2	9	LostWonWonLostLost
13	1. FC Köln	8	2	3	3	-3	9	DrawnDrawnLostWonLost
14	SC Paderborn 07	8	2	3	3	-3	9	DrawnWonDrawnLostWon
15	Hamburger SV	8	3	0	5	-12	9	LostLostWonWonWon
16	Union Berlin	8	1	4	3	-12	7	DrawnDrawnDrawnWonLost
17	FC Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	-5	6	LostDrawnLostLostDrawn
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	8	1	1	6	-11	4	DrawnWonLostLostLost

This season

Bundesliga games since 28 Aug 2026, 90-minute score. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Home wins: 35 of 72
Draws: 16 of 72
Away wins: 21 of 72
Both teams scored: 42 of 72
Over 2.5 goals: 50 of 72
Goals: 153 by home teams, 99 by away teams in 72

xG and expected points

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Team	Matches with xG	Points in those matches	xPts	xG for	xG against
Bayern München	8	18	20.99	28.42	7.33
Borussia Dortmund	8	18	13.56	12.82	10.91
SC Freiburg	8	16	13.75	14.12	10.08
RB Leipzig	8	15	15.36	20.00	11.61
Werder Bremen	8	15	11.00	13.17	12.95
Bayer Leverkusen	8	13	12.72	16.27	14.42
SV Elversberg	8	13	7.71	11.16	16.86
Eintracht Frankfurt	8	11	10.83	14.15	15.71
FSV Mainz 05	8	10	13.87	16.56	12.22
FC Augsburg	8	9	9.08	16.40	21.08
VfB Stuttgart	8	9	9.86	15.95	19.17
1899 Hoffenheim	8	9	13.40	14.65	10.33
1. FC Köln	8	9	11.27	12.52	12.50
SC Paderborn 07	8	9	8.06	7.89	12.63
Hamburger SV	8	9	7.53	8.00	14.02
Union Berlin	8	7	8.13	8.70	15.60
FC Schalke 04	8	6	6.18	7.73	15.89
Borussia Mönchengladbach	8	4	8.54	12.25	17.45

MP: Matches with xG · xG+: xG for · xG−: xG against

Points and expected points (xPts) in each team's league matches with xG this season. These are not the league table's points: a match without xG counts in neither column.

Teams are in the order of the official league table.

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

Recently analysed

Each analysis is kept exactly as it was published before kick-off.

Questions

How many clubs play in the Bundesliga?

Eighteen. Each club plays thirty-four league matches, once at home and once away against every other club.

When is the Bundesliga season played?

The season usually runs from August to May, with a winter break of a few weeks around the turn of the year.

How do Ledger's analysis pages for Bundesliga matches work?

Each upcoming Bundesliga match gets its own page with the model's home, draw and away estimates and, where available, a short written summary. A Signal found badge marks matches the model has flagged; the full analysis behind it is available with PRO. Kick-off times are shown in UK time.

Is Ledger's analysis gambling advice?

No. Ledger publishes analysis, not gambling advice. Each page explains how the model reads a match and how confident it is; any decision you make is your own. Football matches can go any way, and no analysis changes that.