Serie A match analysis

Serie A is the top division of Italian football. Twenty clubs play each other home and away, and the three lowest-placed clubs are relegated to Serie B.

Ledger publishes an analysis page for each upcoming Serie A match it covers: the model's estimated chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, with a short written summary where one is available. Matches the model flags for a closer look carry a Signal found badge, and the full reasoning behind them is part of PRO. Finished matches stay listed with the final score.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 20:08 GMT · times in UK time

Upcoming matches

Each percentage is our estimate of how likely that result is.

Today · Fri 6 Nov

1 match

VeneziaUdinese LiveNo qualifying signalMost likely: Venezia win41%chance of that result Live

Sat 7 Nov

4 matches

CagliariFrosinone14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Frosinone win41%chance of that result14:00
TorinoLecce14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Torino win49%chance of that result14:00
ParmaBologna17:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Bologna win44%chance of that result17:00
AS RomaSassuolo19:45No qualifying signalMost likely: AS Roma win68%chance of that result19:45

Sun 8 Nov

5 matches

NapoliLazio11:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Napoli win42%chance of that result11:30
GenoaAC Milan14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: AC Milan win46%chance of that result14:00
MonzaAtalanta14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Atalanta win53%chance of that result14:00
InterComo17:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Inter win45%chance of that result17:00
FiorentinaJuventus19:45No qualifying signalMost likely: Juventus win47%chance of that result19:45

Table

Table as of 6 Nov 2026, 05:22 GMT · Source: API-Football

Serie A table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	+16	28	WonWonWonWonWon
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+13	25	LostWonWonWonWon
3	AS Roma	10	7	3	0	+18	24	WonWonDrawnWonDrawn
4	Como	10	7	2	1	+10	23	WonWonWonWonDrawn
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	+9	21	WonLostWonWonDrawn
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	+10	20	WonWonDrawnWonLost
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+3	17	WonLostWonLostDrawn
8	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+4	14	LostWonDrawnLostWon
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+1	14	WonWonWonLostWon
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	-2	13	LostLostWonWonWon
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	-4	13	WonWonWonLostWon
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	-6	13	LostLostLostLostDrawn
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-4	11	LostDrawnDrawnLostWon
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	-10	9	LostLostLostWonLost
15	Parma	10	2	2	6	-7	8	WonDrawnLostLostLost
16	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	-8	8	WonDrawnLostLostLost
17	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	-10	8	LostLostLostLostDrawn
18	Monza	10	2	1	7	-7	7	LostLostLostWonLost
19	Udinese	10	1	2	7	-12	5	LostDrawnLostLostLost
20	Venezia	10	1	0	9	-14	3	LostLostLostWonLost

This season

Serie A games since 22 Aug 2026, 90-minute score. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Home wins: 47 of 100
Draws: 16 of 100
Away wins: 37 of 100
Both teams scored: 58 of 100
Over 2.5 goals: 61 of 100
Goals: 162 by home teams, 156 by away teams in 100

xG and expected points

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

Team	Matches with xG	Points in those matches	xPts	xG for	xG against
Lazio	10	28	16.57	16.54	11.47
Inter	10	25	22.46	27.41	10.88
AS Roma	10	24	18.63	23.01	14.45
Como	10	23	17.48	17.97	12.49
AC Milan	10	21	15.95	17.80	13.23
Frosinone	10	20	12.47	18.41	21.62
Juventus	10	17	19.13	13.67	5.97
Napoli	10	14	16.95	17.69	12.74
Bologna	10	14	15.07	14.84	13.56
Torino	10	13	11.80	12.58	15.70
Genoa	10	13	10.85	9.22	13.15
Cagliari	10	13	10.75	12.32	18.47
Atalanta	10	11	11.87	15.92	18.44
Lecce	10	9	10.14	13.76	20.25
Parma	10	8	7.76	8.07	18.19
Fiorentina	10	8	14.94	15.74	14.89
Sassuolo	10	8	11.72	13.97	18.09
Monza	10	7	14.96	16.55	14.60
Udinese	10	5	8.92	12.15	22.90
Venezia	10	3	10.57	14.27	20.80

MP: Matches with xG · xG+: xG for · xG−: xG against

Points and expected points (xPts) in each team's league matches with xG this season. These are not the league table's points: a match without xG counts in neither column.

Teams are in the order of the official league table.

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

Recently analysed

Each analysis is kept exactly as it was published before kick-off.

Questions

How many clubs play in Serie A?

Twenty. Each club plays thirty-eight league matches, meeting every other club once at home and once away.

When is the Serie A season played?

The season usually runs from August to May, with a short pause over the winter holidays.

How do Ledger's analysis pages for Serie A matches work?

Each upcoming Serie A match gets its own page with the model's home, draw and away estimates and, where available, a short written summary. A Signal found badge marks matches the model has flagged; the full analysis behind it is available with PRO. Kick-off times are shown in UK time.

Is Ledger's analysis gambling advice?

No. Ledger publishes analysis, not gambling advice. Each page explains how the model reads a match and how confident it is; any decision you make is your own. Football matches can go any way, and no analysis changes that.