LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Serie A
Atalanta
0–3Finished
Parma
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 10 · New Balance Arena, Bergamo

Atalanta v Parma match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 2 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Atalanta a 64% chance of winning this Serie A match, with an expected-goals total of 2.65. Atalanta project 1.88 expected goals to Parma's 0.77, a gap of 1.11 in Atalanta's favour. Both teams show patchy form recently, though Atalanta's attacking threat appears significantly stronger.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 64%Atalanta win
  • 23%Draw
  • 13%Parma win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AtalantaAtalanta

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew2–2at Fiorentina
  2. drew4–4v Frosinone
  3. lost2–3at AC Milan
  4. won3–1v Venezia
  5. lost0–2at Juventus
ParmaParma

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. drew0–0v Udinese
  2. lost1–2at Lazio
  3. lost0–3v Torino
  4. lost0–3at Inter
  5. won2–1v Genoa

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Atalanta won 35 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Parma won 15 of 21 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
  • Atalanta won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Parma without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Atalanta 2, draws 1, Parma 1

Goals: Atalanta 10, Parma 5

DateMatchScore
25 Jan 2026Atalanta v Parma4–0
30 Aug 2025Parma v Atalanta1–1
25 May 2025Atalanta v Parma2–3
23 Nov 2024Parma v Atalanta1–3

Home and away

Atalanta

Atalanta at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnFrosinone25 Oct 20264–4
  • WonPafosUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20263–1
  • WonVenezia12 Oct 20263–1
  • LostCagliari12 Sep 20261–2
  • WonBologna31 Aug 20261–0

Atalanta: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Parma

Parma away

Last 5: 0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost

  • LostLazio24 Oct 20261–2
  • LostInter10 Oct 20260–3
  • LostComo14 Sep 20261–2
  • LostJuventus29 Aug 20260–2
  • LostComo17 May 20260–1

Parma: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
5 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Atalanta
Last match
4 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Fiorentina · Serie A
Next match
3 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Kairat Almaty · UEFA Europa Conference League
Parma
Last match
5 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
Next match
5 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Atalanta

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
Scored first35 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 46 matches774 won, 239 drawn, 129 lost in 1142 matches
Conceded first7 won, 11 drawn, 23 lost in 41 matches129 won, 239 drawn, 774 lost in 1142 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches329 won, 396 drawn, 329 lost in 1054 matches
Level after 60 minutes12 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches299 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 313 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches181 won, 450 drawn, 181 lost in 812 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches339 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 343 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 19 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 22 drawn, 20 lost in 67 matches630 won, 542 drawn, 630 lost in 1802 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 46 matches457 won, 428 drawn, 457 lost in 1342 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches62 won, 111 drawn, 299 lost in 472 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
All matches37 scored, 18 conceded (94)724 scored, 724 conceded (2476)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 8 conceded (34)255 scored, 235 conceded (844)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 7 conceded (32)234 scored, 234 conceded (788)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 3 conceded (28)235 scored, 255 conceded (844)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 26(league sides: 1,279 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 568)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Parma

Since 4 Nov 2024

ScoreParmaLeague sides
Scored first15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches774 won, 239 drawn, 129 lost in 1142 matches
Conceded first3 won, 9 drawn, 31 lost in 43 matches129 won, 239 drawn, 774 lost in 1142 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 41 matches329 won, 396 drawn, 329 lost in 1054 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches35 won, 112 drawn, 379 lost in 526 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 34 matches181 won, 450 drawn, 181 lost in 812 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches24 won, 97 drawn, 398 lost in 519 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches13 won, 85 drawn, 441 lost in 539 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 54 matches630 won, 542 drawn, 630 lost in 1802 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 16 drawn, 23 lost in 53 matches457 won, 428 drawn, 457 lost in 1342 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreParmaLeague sides
All matches23 scored, 27 conceded (75)724 scored, 724 conceded (2476)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 10 conceded (33)234 scored, 234 conceded (788)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 12 conceded (30)235 scored, 255 conceded (844)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 16(league sides: 1,279 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 568)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AtalantaParma
75Since 3 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 4 Nov 2024
117.16xG for69.73
119Goals scored63
90.19xG against113.51
76Goals conceded103

Atalanta

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Atalanta: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
29 Oct 2026at Fiorentina1.021.562–2
25 Oct 2026v Frosinone3.881.954–4
18 Oct 2026at AC Milan1.742.582–3
12 Oct 2026v Venezia2.192.483–1
20 Sep 2026at Juventus0.601.310–2
12 Sep 2026v Cagliari1.741.321–2
5 Sep 2026at AS Roma0.702.971–2
31 Aug 2026v Bologna0.151.051–0
23 Aug 2026v Sassuolo0.882.702–1
22 May 2026at Fiorentina1.380.851–1

Parma

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Parma: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
28 Oct 2026v Udinese1.201.430–0
24 Oct 2026at Lazio0.871.821–2
19 Oct 2026v Torino1.611.580–3
10 Oct 2026at Inter0.462.420–3
20 Sep 2026v Genoa0.530.702–1
14 Sep 2026at Como1.152.981–2
6 Sep 2026v Monza0.731.721–1
29 Aug 2026at Juventus0.251.580–2
22 Aug 2026v Cagliari0.750.940–1
24 May 2026v Sassuolo1.120.911–0

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

AtalantaParma
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
11Points in those matches5
9.18xPts7.55
12.90xG for7.55
17.92xG against15.17

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Atalanta and Parma

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AtalantaAtalanta
    Ruled out
    R. Bellanova (Thigh Injury) · G. Gaetano (Muscle Injury) · I. Hien (Muscle Injury) · F. Kessie (Calf Injury) · S. Kolasinac (Thigh Injury) · O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury) · T. Kristensen (Muscle Injury) · G. Raspadori (Thigh Injury) · G. Scamacca (Thigh Injury)
  • ParmaParma
    Ruled out
    A. Bernabe (Inactive) · L. Valenti (Coach's decision)

Published 2 Nov 2026, 18:43 GMT · not changed since

All fixtures