Lazio v Cagliari match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Lazio's five-game winning run positions them strongly against Cagliari, who have won just one of their last five matches. The model gives Lazio a 57% chance of victory, with expected goals of 1.69 for the home side and 0.86 for Cagliari—a gap of 0.83 in Lazio's favour. Both teams face injury concerns heading into the fixture.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 57%Lazio win
- 26%Draw
- 17%Cagliari win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LazioLast 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats
- won6–2at Sassuolo
- won2–1v Parma
- won3–0at Juventus
- won3–1v Monza
- won2–0at Venezia
CagliariLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- lost2–4at AS Roma
- lost0–2v Bologna
- lost0–4at Monza
- drew1–1v Juventus
- won1–0at Udinese
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lazio won 36 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
- Cagliari won 16 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
- Lazio won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Lazio's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Lazio 6, draws 2, Cagliari 0
Goals: Lazio 15, Cagliari 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Cagliari v Lazio | 0–0 |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Lazio v Cagliari | 2–0 |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Cagliari v Lazio | 1–2 |
| 4 Nov 2024 | Lazio v Cagliari | 2–1 |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Cagliari v Lazio | 1–3 |
| 2 Dec 2023 | Lazio v Cagliari | 1–0 |
| 5 Mar 2022 | Cagliari v Lazio | 0–3 |
| 19 Sep 2021 | Lazio v Cagliari | 2–2 |
Home and away
LazioLazio at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonParma24 Oct 20262–1
- WonMonza11 Oct 20263–1
- DrawnAC Milan12 Sep 20262–2
- WonGenoa30 Aug 20261–0
- LostMantovaCoppa Italia16 Aug 20260–2
Lazio: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
CagliariCagliari away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostAS Roma27 Oct 20262–4
- LostMonza19 Oct 20260–4
- WonUdinese19 Sep 20261–0
- WonAtalanta12 Sep 20262–1
- WonParma22 Aug 20261–0
Cagliari: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lazio- Last match
- 5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Sassuolo · Serie A
- Next match
- 7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
Cagliari- Last match
- 5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
- Next match
- 6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Frosinone · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 4 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lazio
| Score | Lazio | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 36 won, 10 drawn, 0 lost in 46 matches | 770 won, 239 drawn, 128 lost in 1137 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 20 lost in 31 matches | 128 won, 239 drawn, 770 lost in 1137 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 18 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 337 won, 124 drawn, 58 lost in 519 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 34 matches | 326 won, 396 drawn, 326 lost in 1048 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 17 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 376 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 523 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 12 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 241 won, 410 drawn, 241 lost in 892 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 17 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 394 won, 97 drawn, 24 lost in 515 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 180 won, 450 drawn, 180 lost in 810 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 437 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 535 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 109 won, 492 drawn, 109 lost in 710 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 27 won, 22 drawn, 12 lost in 61 matches | 626 won, 542 drawn, 626 lost in 1794 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 19 drawn, 9 lost in 47 matches | 454 won, 428 drawn, 454 lost in 1336 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lazio | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 37 scored, 18 conceded (84) | 721 scored, 721 conceded (2466) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 7 conceded (31) | 253 scored, 235 conceded (840) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 17 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 233 scored, 233 conceded (786) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (25) | 235 scored, 253 conceded (840) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 12(league sides: 1,274 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 567)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Cagliari
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches | 770 won, 239 drawn, 128 lost in 1137 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches | 128 won, 239 drawn, 770 lost in 1137 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 38 matches | 326 won, 396 drawn, 326 lost in 1048 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches | 58 won, 124 drawn, 337 lost in 519 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches | 241 won, 410 drawn, 241 lost in 892 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 21 lost in 23 matches | 35 won, 112 drawn, 376 lost in 523 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 23 lost in 27 matches | 24 won, 97 drawn, 394 lost in 515 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 437 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 535 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 21 lost in 26 matches | 13 won, 85 drawn, 437 lost in 535 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches | 626 won, 542 drawn, 626 lost in 1794 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches | 454 won, 428 drawn, 454 lost in 1336 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 23 conceded (75) | 721 scored, 721 conceded (2466) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (24) | 253 scored, 235 conceded (840) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 13 conceded (36) | 235 scored, 253 conceded (840) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,274 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 567)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 4 Nov 2024
| Lazio | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | 75 |
| 97.95 | xG for | 79.03 |
| 102 | Goals scored | 80 |
| 86.31 | xG against | 112.32 |
| 83 | Goals conceded | 105 |
Lazio
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | at Sassuolo | 3.59 | 0.80 | 6–2 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Parma | 1.82 | 0.87 | 2–1 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Juventus | 0.57 | 0.75 | 3–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Monza | 1.84 | 1.76 | 3–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Venezia | 1.60 | 1.89 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v AC Milan | 2.01 | 1.25 | 2–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Udinese | 1.83 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Genoa | 1.62 | 0.42 | 1–0 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at Bologna | 0.63 | 1.78 | 1–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Pisa | 1.11 | 1.56 | 2–1 |
Cagliari
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | at AS Roma | 2.68 | 2.96 | 2–4 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Bologna | 0.44 | 1.64 | 0–2 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | at Monza | 2.11 | 2.10 | 0–4 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Juventus | 0.52 | 1.95 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Udinese | 1.12 | 2.13 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.32 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 1.61 | 0.50 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Inter | 0.48 | 3.67 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Parma | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at AC Milan | 2.78 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Lazio | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 25 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 15.27 | xPts | 9.34 |
| 15.51 | xG for | 11.22 |
| 10.37 | xG against | 17.44 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lazio and Cagliari
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Furlanetto (Knee Injury) · A. Gudmundsson (Shoulder Injury) · A. Marusic (Muscle Injury) · N. Rovella (Calf Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Felici (Knee Injury) · R. Idrissi (Knee Injury)
Published 1 Nov 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since
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