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Serie A
Monza
14:00
Atalanta
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 11 · Stadio Brianteo, Monza

Monza v Atalanta · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Atalanta win

The model gives Atalanta a 53% chance of winning, Monza 23% and a draw 25%, with expected goals of 1.77 and 1.09 respectively (gap of 0.68 in Atalanta's favour). Monza have lost their last four league matches, while Atalanta's form has been inconsistent. Atalanta won their head-to-head 4-0 last May. Atalanta's Ismail Hien is ruled out through injury.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 23%Monza win
  • 25%Draw
  • 52%Atalanta win

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Form · newest first

MonzaMonza

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. lost1–2at Bologna
  2. lost1–4v Napoli
  3. lost2–3at Torino
  4. won4–0v Cagliari
  5. lost1–3at Lazio
AtalantaAtalanta

Last 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1v Kairat Almaty
  2. lost0–3v Parma
  3. drew2–2at Fiorentina
  4. drew4–4v Frosinone
  5. lost0–2at Ajax

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 222 of 281.
  • Atalanta won 33 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
  • Atalanta won 6 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Atalanta without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Monza 0, draws 0, Atalanta 6

Goals: Monza 3, Atalanta 18

DateMatchScore
4 May 2025Monza v Atalanta0–4
30 Oct 2024Atalanta v Monza2–0
21 Apr 2024Monza v Atalanta1–2
2 Sep 2023Atalanta v Monza3–0
4 Jun 2023Atalanta v Monza5–2
5 Sep 2022Monza v Atalanta0–2

Home and away

Monza

Monza at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostNapoli28 Oct 20261–4
  • WonCagliari19 Oct 20264–0
  • WonSassuolo18 Sep 20262–1
  • LostUdinese29 Aug 20262–3
  • WonAvellinoCoppa Italia14 Aug 20263–0

Monza: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Atalanta

Atalanta away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • DrawnFiorentina29 Oct 20262–2
  • LostAjaxUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20260–2
  • LostAC Milan18 Oct 20262–3
  • LostJuventus20 Sep 20260–2
  • LostAS Roma5 Sep 20261–2

Atalanta: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Monza
Last match
8 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
Next match
Not known
Atalanta
Last match
3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Kairat Almaty · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Atalanta

ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
Scored first33 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 44 matches775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches
Conceded first7 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 42 matches130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down at half-time6 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches58 won, 124 drawn, 340 lost in 522 matches
Level after 60 minutes12 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches340 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 344 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 19 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 22 drawn, 21 lost in 67 matches632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 18 drawn, 12 lost in 46 matches458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches63 won, 111 drawn, 299 lost in 473 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
All matches35 scored, 18 conceded (93)726 scored, 726 conceded (2480)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 8 conceded (32)255 scored, 235 conceded (845)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 7 conceded (32)236 scored, 236 conceded (790)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 3 conceded (29)235 scored, 255 conceded (845)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 26(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 10 Nov 2024

MonzaAtalanta
37Matches with xG75
40.38xG for118.88
35Goals scored116
57.10xG against89.94
79Goals conceded79

Monza

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Monza: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Bologna1.842.101–2
28 Oct 2026v Napoli1.221.841–4
23 Oct 2026at Torino0.681.402–3
19 Oct 2026v Cagliari2.102.114–0
11 Oct 2026at Lazio1.761.841–3
18 Sep 2026v Sassuolo1.511.472–1
13 Sep 2026at Lecce2.791.082–3
6 Sep 2026at Parma1.720.731–1
29 Aug 2026v Udinese1.700.982–3
22 Aug 2026at Inter1.231.051–4

Atalanta

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Atalanta: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
2 Nov 2026v Parma3.020.520–3
29 Oct 2026at Fiorentina1.021.562–2
25 Oct 2026v Frosinone3.881.954–4
18 Oct 2026at AC Milan1.742.582–3
12 Oct 2026v Venezia2.192.483–1
20 Sep 2026at Juventus0.601.310–2
12 Sep 2026v Cagliari1.741.321–2
5 Sep 2026at AS Roma0.702.971–2
31 Aug 2026v Bologna0.151.051–0
23 Aug 2026v Sassuolo0.882.702–1

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

MonzaAtalanta
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
7Points in those matches11
14.96xPts11.87
16.55xG for15.92
14.60xG against18.44

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Monza and Atalanta

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • MonzaMonzaNo injuries or suspensions reported.
  • AtalantaAtalanta
    Ruled out
    I. Hien (Muscle Bruise)

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:18 GMT

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