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Serie A
Sassuolo
2–4Finished
Fiorentina
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 17:30 GMTMatchday 10 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo v Fiorentina match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 2 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Sassuolo and Fiorentina are evenly matched according to the model, with each team given roughly a third of the winning chances. Both arrive in poor form, each winless in their last five league matches. Expected goals are tightly balanced at 1.42 for Sassuolo and 1.4 for Fiorentina, totalling 2.82. Both teams are seriously depleted by injury, which will reshape their approach.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 37%Sassuolo win
  • 27%Draw
  • 36%Fiorentina win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SassuoloSassuolo

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

  1. lost2–6v Lazio
  2. lost0–2at Como
  3. lost2–4at Frosinone
  4. drew1–1v AC Milan
  5. lost1–2at Monza
FiorentinaFiorentina

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. drew2–2v Atalanta
  2. lost1–2at Inter
  3. lost1–3v Como
  4. lost1–2at Genoa
  5. drew1–1v Napoli

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sassuolo avoided defeat in 7 of 28 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 23 Aug 2025.
  • Fiorentina won 21 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Sassuolo's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Sassuolo 3, draws 2, Fiorentina 3

Goals: Sassuolo 11, Fiorentina 14

DateMatchScore
26 Apr 2026Fiorentina v Sassuolo0–0
6 Dec 2025Sassuolo v Fiorentina3–1
28 Apr 2024Fiorentina v Sassuolo5–1
6 Jan 2024Sassuolo v Fiorentina1–0
2 Jun 2023Sassuolo v Fiorentina1–3
7 Jan 2023Fiorentina v Sassuolo2–1
26 Feb 2022Sassuolo v Fiorentina2–1
19 Dec 2021Fiorentina v Sassuolo2–2

Home and away

Sassuolo

Sassuolo at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostLazio27 Oct 20262–6
  • DrawnAC Milan11 Oct 20261–1
  • WonJuventus13 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnFrosinoneCoppa Italia2 Sep 20261–1 PEN
  • WonTorino29 Aug 20262–1

Sassuolo: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Fiorentina

Fiorentina away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostInter25 Oct 20261–2
  • LostGenoa10 Oct 20261–2
  • WonVenezia11 Sep 20264–2
  • LostAS Roma24 Aug 20260–4
  • WonJuventus17 May 20262–0

Fiorentina: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sassuolo
Last match
6 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A
Next match
5 days after7 Nov 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
Fiorentina
Last match
4 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
Next match
6 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sassuolo

Since 23 Aug 2025

ScoreSassuoloLeague sides
Conceded first3 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 28 matches129 won, 239 drawn, 774 lost in 1142 matches
Level after 15 minutes12 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 31 matches630 won, 542 drawn, 630 lost in 1802 matches
Level after 30 minutes8 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches457 won, 428 drawn, 457 lost in 1342 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSassuoloLeague sides
All matches10 scored, 15 conceded (47)724 scored, 724 conceded (2476)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 17(league sides: 1,279 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 568)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Fiorentina

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreFiorentinaLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches774 won, 239 drawn, 129 lost in 1142 matches
Conceded first3 won, 9 drawn, 23 lost in 35 matches129 won, 239 drawn, 774 lost in 1142 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 25 matches329 won, 396 drawn, 329 lost in 1054 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches58 won, 124 drawn, 339 lost in 521 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches379 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 526 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes12 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches398 won, 97 drawn, 24 lost in 519 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 18 drawn, 22 lost in 55 matches630 won, 542 drawn, 630 lost in 1802 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 37 matches457 won, 428 drawn, 457 lost in 1342 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFiorentinaLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 20 conceded (75)724 scored, 724 conceded (2476)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (26)255 scored, 235 conceded (844)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 6 conceded (22)234 scored, 234 conceded (788)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 3 conceded (27)235 scored, 255 conceded (844)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,279 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 568)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

SassuoloFiorentina
47Since 23 Aug 2025Matches with xG74Since 3 Nov 2024
55.41xG for97.84
60Goals scored88
71.40xG against96.56
72Goals conceded103

Sassuolo

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sassuolo: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
27 Oct 2026v Lazio0.803.592–6
24 Oct 2026at Como0.261.690–2
16 Oct 2026at Frosinone2.042.592–4
11 Oct 2026v AC Milan1.191.181–1
18 Sep 2026at Monza1.471.511–2
13 Sep 2026v Juventus1.021.103–2
6 Sep 2026at Bologna1.621.882–2
29 Aug 2026v Torino1.851.262–1
23 Aug 2026at Atalanta2.700.881–2
24 May 2026at Parma0.911.120–1

Fiorentina

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fiorentina: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
29 Oct 2026v Atalanta1.561.022–2
25 Oct 2026at Inter0.243.151–2
18 Oct 2026v Como2.111.591–3
10 Oct 2026at Genoa0.821.461–2
20 Sep 2026v Napoli1.141.401–1
11 Sep 2026at Venezia3.310.494–2
5 Sep 2026v Torino1.670.581–2
29 Aug 2026v Frosinone2.131.110–3
24 Aug 2026at AS Roma0.353.070–4
22 May 2026v Atalanta0.851.381–1

Fiorentina: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

SassuoloFiorentina
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
8Points in those matches5
11.12xPts12.73
12.95xG for13.33
15.68xG against13.87

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sassuolo and Fiorentina

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SassuoloSassuolo
    Ruled out
    D. Boloca (Muscle Injury) · I. Kone (Broken Leg) · F. Leysen (Knee Injury) · Y. Paz (Knee Injury) · K. Thorstvedt (Red Card)
  • FiorentinaFiorentina
    Ruled out
    A. Atta (Abdominal strain) · F. Parisi (Knee Injury) · M. Pongracic (Muscle Injury) · L. Ranieri (Leg Injury) · R. Sottil (Back Injury)

Published 2 Nov 2026, 16:27 GMT · not changed since

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