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Championship match analysis

The Championship is the second tier of English football, one level below the Premier League. Twenty-four clubs play each other home and away, and the season ends with promotion play-offs.

Ledger publishes an analysis page for each upcoming Championship match it covers: the model's estimated chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, with a short written summary where one is available. Matches the model flags for a closer look carry a Signal found badge, and the full reasoning behind them is part of PRO. Finished matches stay listed with the final score.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 18:57 GMT · times in UK time

Upcoming matches

Each percentage is our estimate of how likely that result is.

Today · Fri 6 Nov

1 match

  • DerbyDerbyBoltonBolton LiveNo qualifying signalMost likely: Derby win45%chance of that result

Sat 7 Nov

11 matches

  • Bristol CityBristol CityNorwichNorwich12:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Bristol City win37%chance of that result
  • PortsmouthPortsmouthStoke CityStoke City12:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Portsmouth win41%chance of that result
  • WrexhamWrexhamWolvesWolves12:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Wolves win39%chance of that result
  • BirminghamBirminghamSwanseaSwansea15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Birmingham win48%chance of that result
  • BlackburnBlackburnWest HamWest Ham15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: West Ham win52%chance of that result
  • CardiffCardiffBurnleyBurnley15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Cardiff win39%chance of that result
  • CharltonCharltonSheffield UtdSheffield Utd15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Sheffield Utd win43%chance of that result
  • PrestonPrestonSouthamptonSouthampton15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Southampton win56%chance of that result
  • QPRQPRLincolnLincoln15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: QPR win44%chance of that result
  • WatfordWatfordMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Middlesbrough win50%chance of that result
  • West BromWest BromMillwallMillwall15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: West Brom win42%chance of that result

Table

Table as of 6 Nov 2026, 05:02 GMT · Source: API-Football

Championship table
#TeamPGDPtsForm
1Middlesbrough14+1128LostWonWonDrawnWon
2Wolves14+827WonWonWonDrawnWon
3Birmingham14+1326WonWonLostWonWon
4Stoke City14+526WonWonDrawnWonLost
5Swansea14+526LostWonLostLostWon
6West Brom14+525DrawnWonDrawnWonWon
7Southampton14+1524DrawnWonWonDrawnWon
8West Ham14+1523DrawnLostLostWonWon
9Sheffield Utd14+322WonWonDrawnWonLost
10Portsmouth14+322WonDrawnWonDrawnWon
11QPR14+521DrawnLostWonLostWon
12Norwich14+318WonWonWonLostLost
13Millwall14-118LostWonLostDrawnLost
14Blackburn14-218LostLostWonLostWon
15Bristol City14-318LostWonDrawnLostLost
16Wrexham14-217WonLostLostWonLost
17Bolton14-717WonLostLostDrawnWon
18Cardiff14-115DrawnLostWonDrawnWon
19Lincoln14-1015LostLostWonDrawnLost
20Watford14-1014WonLostLostWonLost
21Charlton14-1114LostLostLostLostDrawn
22Burnley14-810DrawnDrawnLostLostDrawn
23Derby14-187LostLostDrawnLostLost
24Preston14-185LostLostDrawnLostLost

This season

Championship games since 14 Aug 2026, 90-minute score. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Home wins
70 of 168
Draws
44 of 168
Away wins
54 of 168
Both teams scored
104 of 168
Over 2.5 goals
103 of 168
Goals
276 by home teams, 217 by away teams in 168

xG and expected points

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

TeamMatches with xGPoints in those matchesxPtsxG forxG against
Middlesbrough142827.8229.3914.38
Wolves142726.8924.9613.18
Birmingham142622.4223.8519.07
Stoke City142616.0414.2620.94
Swansea142622.3523.0717.86
West Brom142519.5320.7920.13
Southampton142822.3124.2819.48
West Ham142324.8929.1917.90
Sheffield Utd142217.8717.1019.14
Portsmouth142219.3317.5417.74
QPR142124.0922.9815.10
Norwich141819.8221.8820.77
Millwall141823.4126.3018.39
Blackburn141813.7414.8624.77
Bristol City141820.3119.9119.33
Wrexham141719.3416.3416.90
Bolton141714.8618.4427.34
Cardiff141520.2424.5823.02
Lincoln141518.6618.1720.32
Watford141412.8514.2024.69
Charlton141414.0813.3221.77
Burnley141016.5818.0722.04
Derby14713.3113.9527.43
Preston14515.6916.6022.34

MP: Matches with xG · xG+: xG for · xG−: xG against

Points and expected points (xPts) in each team's league matches with xG this season. These are not the league table's points: a match without xG counts in neither column.

Teams are in the order of the official league table.

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

Recently analysed

Each analysis is kept exactly as it was published before kick-off.

Questions

How does promotion from the Championship work?

The top two clubs are promoted to the Premier League automatically. The clubs finishing third to sixth play off for the third promotion place, with a one-match final at Wembley. The bottom three are relegated to League One.

How long is the Championship season?

Each club plays forty-six league matches between August and early May, often with midweek rounds, followed by the play-offs in May.

How do Ledger's analysis pages for Championship matches work?

Each upcoming Championship match gets its own page with the model's home, draw and away estimates and, where available, a short written summary. A Signal found badge marks matches the model has flagged; the full analysis behind it is available with PRO. Kick-off times are shown in UK time.

Is Ledger's analysis gambling advice?

No. Ledger publishes analysis, not gambling advice. Each page explains how the model reads a match and how confident it is; any decision you make is your own. Football matches can go any way, and no analysis changes that.

Teams

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