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Championship
Derby
20:00
Bolton
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 15 · Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby v Bolton · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Derby win

Derby welcome Bolton to Pride Park with the hosts favoured by the model but hampered by a severe injury crisis. Derby have won just one of their last five (LLDLL), while Bolton show mixed recent form with two wins from five (WLLDW). Expected goals of 2.74 suggest a competitive encounter.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 45%Derby win
  • 27%Draw
  • 28%Bolton win

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Form · newest first

DerbyDerby

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

  1. lost0–4v Norwich
  2. lost1–4at Millwall
  3. drew1–1at Sheffield Utd
  4. lost0–1v Stoke City
  5. lost1–4at QPR
BoltonBolton

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won1–0at Charlton
  2. lost2–3v Bristol City
  3. lost1–5v Middlesbrough
  4. drew0–0at Southampton
  5. won3–1at Wolves

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Derby won 27 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 329 of 423.
  • Derby won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Derby without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Derby 2, draws 1, Bolton 1

Goals: Derby 4, Bolton 3

DateMatchScore
16 Mar 2024Derby v BoltonLeague One1–0
2 Sep 2023Bolton v DerbyLeague One2–1
21 Jan 2023Derby v BoltonLeague One2–1
27 Dec 2022Bolton v DerbyLeague One0–0

Home and away

Derby

Derby at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostNorwich3 Nov 20260–4
  • LostStoke City17 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnWrexham10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBirmingham12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostWest Brom9 Sep 20260–1

Derby: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Bolton

Bolton away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonCharlton3 Nov 20261–0
  • DrawnSouthampton17 Oct 20260–0
  • WonWolves13 Oct 20263–1
  • WonNorwich20 Sep 20264–3
  • LostMillwall5 Sep 20260–4

Bolton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Derby
Last match
3 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
Next match
Not known
Bolton
Last match
3 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Derby

ScoreDerbyLeague sides
Scored first27 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 42 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first2 won, 11 drawn, 33 lost in 46 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes11 won, 4 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches68 won, 172 drawn, 549 lost in 789 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes12 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches576 won, 153 drawn, 47 lost in 776 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 26 matches47 won, 153 drawn, 576 lost in 776 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 26 lost in 29 matches19 won, 121 drawn, 654 lost in 794 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 17 drawn, 26 lost in 63 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 47 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreDerbyLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 30 conceded (92)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 11 conceded (30)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (26)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 8 conceded (36)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 54 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 24(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 9 Nov 2024

DerbyBolton
92Matches with xG—
102.93xG for—
108Goals scored—
116.36xG against—
126Goals conceded—

Derby

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Derby: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
3 Nov 2026v Norwich0.732.410–4
31 Oct 2026at Millwall1.273.761–4
24 Oct 2026at Sheffield Utd1.152.551–1
17 Oct 2026v Stoke City1.070.620–1
14 Oct 2026at QPR1.022.051–4
10 Oct 2026v Wrexham0.601.461–1
19 Sep 2026at Burnley1.750.451–1
12 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.113.171–2
9 Sep 2026v West Brom1.270.380–1
5 Sep 2026at West Ham0.113.790–3

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

DerbyBolton
14 of 14Matches with xG14 of 14
7Points in those matches17
13.31xPts14.86
13.95xG for18.44
27.43xG against27.34

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Derby and Bolton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • DerbyDerby
    Ruled out
    P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury) · E. Cashin (Inactive) · M. Clarke (Calf Injury) · C. Forsyth (Knee Injury) · S. Langas (Injury) · D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury) · C. Taylor (Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Ward (Inactive)
  • BoltonBolton
    Ruled out
    E. Erhahon (Thigh Injury) · R. Hardie (Hamstring Injury) · J. McAtee (Knee Injury) · J. Nelson (Inactive) · E. Toal (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    G. Bazunu (Inactive)

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 18:57 GMT

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