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Championship
Watford
0–0Finished
Middlesbrough
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 15 · Vicarage Road, Watford

Watford v Middlesbrough match analysis

Our selection

PRO members see our selection for this match.

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 24%Watford win
  • 26%Draw
  • 50%Middlesbrough win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

WatfordWatford

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

  1. won1–0v Lincoln
  2. lost2–3at Norwich
  3. lost0–1at Wolves
  4. won2–0v Charlton
  5. lost1–5at Cardiff
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. lost0–2at Wrexham
  2. won3–0v Charlton
  3. won5–1at Bolton
  4. drew2–2v Cardiff
  5. won3–2at Stoke City

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Watford won 19 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
  • Middlesbrough won 36 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Middlesbrough's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Watford 4, draws 0, Middlesbrough 4

Goals: Watford 12, Middlesbrough 15

DateMatchScore
25 Apr 2026Middlesbrough v Watford5–1
1 Nov 2025Watford v Middlesbrough3–0
15 Feb 2025Middlesbrough v Watford0–1
5 Oct 2024Watford v Middlesbrough2–1
4 May 2024Middlesbrough v Watford3–1
30 Sep 2023Watford v Middlesbrough2–3
28 Jan 2023Middlesbrough v Watford2–0
30 Aug 2022Watford v Middlesbrough2–1

Home and away

Watford

Watford at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonLincoln3 Nov 20261–0
  • WonCharlton17 Oct 20262–0
  • LostBurnley10 Oct 20260–4
  • LostStoke City12 Sep 20261–2
  • WonPreston8 Sep 20262–1

Watford: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostWrexham4 Nov 20260–2
  • WonBolton23 Oct 20265–1
  • WonStoke City13 Oct 20263–2
  • DrawnBirmingham19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostCrystal PalaceLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–3

Middlesbrough: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Watford
Last match
4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Middlesbrough
Last match
3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Watford

Since 8 Nov 2024

ScoreWatfordLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first8 won, 13 drawn, 36 lost in 57 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal down at half-time5 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 25 matches96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches68 won, 172 drawn, 549 lost in 789 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches576 won, 153 drawn, 47 lost in 776 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches47 won, 153 drawn, 576 lost in 776 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches654 won, 121 drawn, 19 lost in 794 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches19 won, 121 drawn, 654 lost in 794 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 20 drawn, 27 lost in 62 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 47 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes6 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 27 matches108 won, 149 drawn, 445 lost in 702 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWatfordLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 20 conceded (92)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes3 scored, 5 conceded (25)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 10 conceded (42)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 60 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Middlesbrough

Since 9 Nov 2024

ScoreMiddlesbroughLeague sides
Scored first36 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 52 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 20 lost in 35 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal down at half-time4 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 19 drawn, 14 lost in 39 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches654 won, 121 drawn, 19 lost in 794 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 23 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
1 goal up after 15 minutes12 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches304 won, 100 drawn, 74 lost in 478 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 19 drawn, 18 lost in 63 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches445 won, 149 drawn, 108 lost in 702 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 44 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMiddlesbroughLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 27 conceded (95)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 10 conceded (37)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (37)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 5 conceded (21)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 24(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

WatfordMiddlesbrough
92Since 8 Nov 2024Matches with xG94Since 9 Nov 2024
104.42xG for142.52
97Goals scored148
119.31xG against101.34
127Goals conceded107

Watford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Watford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
3 Nov 2026v Lincoln0.710.831–0
31 Oct 2026at Norwich1.001.192–3
24 Oct 2026at Wolves0.151.880–1
17 Oct 2026v Charlton2.871.312–0
13 Oct 2026at Cardiff1.463.671–5
10 Oct 2026v Burnley0.641.940–4
18 Sep 2026at Bristol City0.521.560–1
12 Sep 2026v Stoke City0.391.501–2
8 Sep 2026v Preston1.262.442–1
5 Sep 2026at West Brom1.261.140–1

Middlesbrough

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Middlesbrough: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
4 Nov 2026at Wrexham0.951.510–2
31 Oct 2026v Charlton1.790.463–0
23 Oct 2026at Bolton4.401.025–1
17 Oct 2026v Cardiff2.780.912–2
13 Oct 2026at Stoke City2.570.653–2
10 Oct 2026v Wolves0.900.681–0
19 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.141.232–2
15 Sep 2026v Millwall1.521.692–2
12 Sep 2026v Norwich2.381.764–3
5 Sep 2026at QPR2.531.031–0

Middlesbrough: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

WatfordMiddlesbrough
14 of 14Matches with xG14 of 14
14Points in those matches28
12.85xPts27.82
14.20xG for29.39
24.69xG against14.38

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Watford and Middlesbrough

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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