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Championship
Blackburn
1–2Finished
Stoke City
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · Ewood Park, Blackburn

Blackburn v Stoke City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Blackburn a 41% chance of winning at home, with a 29% likelihood each for draws and Stoke victories. Expected goals lean slightly toward the hosts at 2.4 total. Both teams come into this match with mixed recent form, and their previous four meetings have been competitive and low-scoring, featuring two draws.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Blackburn win
  • 29%Draw
  • 29%Stoke City win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BlackburnBlackburn

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–4at Swansea
  2. won2–0v Wrexham
  3. lost2–3at West Brom
  4. won1–0at Bristol City
  5. won2–1v Cardiff
Stoke CityStoke City

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won2–0v Preston
  2. drew0–0v Bristol City
  3. won1–0at Derby
  4. lost2–3v Middlesbrough
  5. won2–1at Bolton

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Blackburn won 28 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 6 Nov 2024.
  • Stoke City won 26 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 6 Nov 2024.
  • Stoke City won 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Blackburn 3, draws 2, Stoke City 5

Goals: Blackburn 11, Stoke City 11

DateMatchScore
11 Apr 2026Stoke City v Blackburn1–1
4 Oct 2025Blackburn v Stoke City1–1
12 Mar 2025Stoke City v Blackburn1–0
6 Nov 2024Blackburn v Stoke City0–2
10 Feb 2024Blackburn v Stoke City3–1
25 Nov 2023Stoke City v Blackburn0–3
10 Mar 2023Stoke City v Blackburn3–2
27 Aug 2022Blackburn v Stoke City0–1
18 Apr 2022Blackburn v Stoke City0–1
27 Nov 2021Stoke City v Blackburn0–1

Home and away

Blackburn

Blackburn at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonWrexham24 Oct 20262–0
  • WonCardiff10 Oct 20262–1
  • WonMillwall12 Sep 20263–1
  • LostSheffield Utd8 Sep 20261–2
  • LostQPR29 Aug 20261–2

Blackburn: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Stoke City

Stoke City away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonDerby17 Oct 20261–0
  • WonBolton10 Oct 20262–1
  • WonWatford12 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnCardiff8 Sep 20261–1
  • LostWolves29 Aug 20261–4

Stoke City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Blackburn
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Stoke City
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 6 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Blackburn

ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 30 lost in 44 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches515 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 775 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 43 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 33 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches67 won, 171 drawn, 545 lost in 783 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches572 won, 152 drawn, 46 lost in 770 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 27 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches46 won, 152 drawn, 572 lost in 770 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches649 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 787 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 24 lost in 27 matches18 won, 120 drawn, 649 lost in 787 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 19 drawn, 27 lost in 73 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 58 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 28 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 6 conceded (32)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 13 conceded (24)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (36)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Stoke City

ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first4 won, 5 drawn, 31 lost in 40 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 45 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 20 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches46 won, 152 drawn, 572 lost in 770 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 20 drawn, 8 lost in 32 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
Level after 15 minutes23 won, 21 drawn, 23 lost in 67 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 21 lost in 54 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
All matches18 scored, 32 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (28)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (32)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (32)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 18(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 6 Nov 2024

BlackburnStoke City
92Matches with xG92
106.23xG for99.59
98Goals scored101
117.76xG against135.03
110Goals conceded116

Blackburn

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Blackburn: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Swansea0.542.820–4
24 Oct 2026v Wrexham1.611.742–0
17 Oct 2026at West Brom0.843.722–3
13 Oct 2026at Bristol City0.151.951–0
10 Oct 2026v Cardiff2.421.052–1
19 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.591.602–2
12 Sep 2026v Millwall1.231.673–1
8 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd1.600.471–2
5 Sep 2026at Preston1.092.191–2
1 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.241.460–0

Stoke City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stoke City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Preston2.220.162–0
24 Oct 2026v Bristol City0.710.790–0
17 Oct 2026at Derby0.621.071–0
13 Oct 2026v Middlesbrough0.652.572–3
10 Oct 2026at Bolton0.743.132–1
19 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd0.650.362–1
12 Sep 2026at Watford1.500.392–1
8 Sep 2026at Cardiff0.752.921–1
5 Sep 2026v Charlton2.140.614–0
1 Sep 2026v Norwich0.581.441–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

BlackburnStoke City
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
18Points in those matches23
11.96xPts15.04
12.96xG for12.97
23.48xG against19.04

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Blackburn and Stoke City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BlackburnBlackburn
    Ruled out
    A. Forshaw (Hip Injury) · M. Litherland (Muscle Injury) · L. Miller (Achilles Tendon Injury) · R. Morishita (Injury)
  • Stoke CityStoke City
    Ruled out
    A. Ampah (Knee Injury) · E. Bocat (Injury) · L. Cisse (Inactive) · E. Galbraith (Yellow Cards)
    Doubtful
    A. Cresswell (Knee Injury) · S. Gallagher (Injury)

Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

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