La Liga match analysis

La Liga is the top division of Spanish football. Twenty clubs play each other home and away, and the three lowest-placed clubs are relegated to the Segunda División.

Ledger publishes an analysis page for each upcoming La Liga match it covers: the model's estimated chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, with a short written summary where one is available. Matches the model flags for a closer look carry a Signal found badge, and the full reasoning behind them is part of PRO. Finished matches stay listed with the final score.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 19:08 GMT · times in UK time

Upcoming matches

Each percentage is our estimate of how likely that result is.

Today · Fri 6 Nov

1 match

SevillaAlaves20:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Sevilla win45%chance of that result20:00

Sat 7 Nov

4 matches

MalagaRacing Santander13:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Malaga win47%chance of that result13:00
EspanyolDeportivo La Coruna15:15No qualifying signalMost likely: Espanyol win43%chance of that result15:15
OsasunaAthletic Club17:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Osasuna win38%chance of that result17:30
ValenciaReal Madrid20:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Real Madrid win58%chance of that result20:00

Sun 8 Nov

5 matches

ElcheReal Betis13:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Real Betis win36%chance of that result13:00
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano15:15No qualifying signalMost likely: Real Sociedad win53%chance of that result15:15
Celta VigoLevante17:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Celta Vigo win51%chance of that result17:30
VillarrealGetafe17:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Villarreal win56%chance of that result17:30
Atletico MadridBarcelona20:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Barcelona win41%chance of that result20:00

Table

Table as of 6 Nov 2026, 05:27 GMT · Source: API-Football

La Liga table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	+34	30	WonLostWonWonWon
2	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	+14	28	WonWonWonWonWon
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	+18	27	WonWonWonWonLost
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	+3	23	WonDrawnLostWonDrawn
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	0	19	LostWonWonWonWon
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	-2	17	LostWonLostDrawnLost
7	Athletic Club	10	4	3	3	+4	15	WonWonLostDrawnDrawn
8	Deportivo La Coruna	11	3	5	3	+1	14	WonLostDrawnLostDrawn
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	0	12	LostWonDrawnLostWon
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	0	12	LostDrawnWonDrawnWon
11	Alaves	11	3	3	5	-2	12	LostDrawnLostLostDrawn
12	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	-5	12	WonLostDrawnDrawnWon
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	-8	12	WonLostDrawnLostWon
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	-1	11	WonLostLostDrawnLost
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	-11	11	LostLostWonLostDrawn
16	Racing Santander	11	3	2	6	-14	11	LostWonLostDrawnLost
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	-4	10	LostWonDrawnDrawnWon
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	-5	10	LostLostWonDrawnDrawn
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	-9	9	WonLostDrawnDrawnLost
20	Malaga	11	0	5	6	-13	5	LostDrawnLostDrawnLost

This season

La Liga games since 15 Aug 2026, 90-minute score. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Home wins: 50 of 109
Draws: 27 of 109
Away wins: 32 of 109
Both teams scored: 63 of 109
Over 2.5 goals: 63 of 109
Goals: 186 by home teams, 142 by away teams in 109

xG and expected points

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Team	Matches with xG	Points in those matches	xPts	xG for	xG against
Barcelona	11	30	26.66	38.15	11.81
Atletico Madrid	11	28	18.63	17.62	12.08
Real Madrid	11	27	24.00	27.58	11.26
Real Betis	11	23	14.69	18.16	19.98
Real Sociedad	11	19	14.28	15.57	18.62
Sevilla	11	17	13.09	10.98	15.36
Athletic Club	10	15	17.23	16.16	12.41
Deportivo La Coruna	11	14	15.26	14.17	12.97
Villarreal	11	12	19.88	21.60	12.03
Celta Vigo	11	12	13.84	10.66	12.96
Alaves	11	12	15.03	13.71	14.79
Rayo Vallecano	10	12	12.52	13.87	17.00
Getafe	11	12	10.20	7.61	14.90
Espanyol	11	11	12.89	11.15	15.08
Osasuna	11	11	14.93	16.06	16.49
Racing Santander	11	11	12.06	15.23	24.89
Elche	11	10	13.55	13.71	19.34
Levante	11	10	12.37	14.52	20.63
Valencia	11	9	12.63	11.48	16.28
Malaga	11	5	9.56	9.45	18.56

MP: Matches with xG · xG+: xG for · xG−: xG against

Points and expected points (xPts) in each team's league matches with xG this season. These are not the league table's points: a match without xG counts in neither column.

Teams are in the order of the official league table.

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

Recently analysed

Each analysis is kept exactly as it was published before kick-off.

Questions

How many clubs play in La Liga?

Twenty. Each club plays thirty-eight league matches, meeting every other club once at home and once away.

When is the La Liga season played?

The season usually runs from August to May, with matches spread across the weekend and occasional midweek rounds.

How do Ledger's analysis pages for La Liga matches work?

Each upcoming La Liga match gets its own page with the model's home, draw and away estimates and, where available, a short written summary. A Signal found badge marks matches the model has flagged; the full analysis behind it is available with PRO. Kick-off times are shown in UK time.

Is Ledger's analysis gambling advice?

No. Ledger publishes analysis, not gambling advice. Each page explains how the model reads a match and how confident it is; any decision you make is your own. Football matches can go any way, and no analysis changes that.