LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
La Liga
Valencia
20:00
Real Madrid
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 12 · Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia

Valencia v Real Madrid · analysis and preview

Add to Journal

Our selection

PRO members see our selection for this match.

See it with PRO

Most likely: Real Madrid win

Real Madrid are heavy favourites, with a 58% chance of victory compared to Valencia's 19% and a 23% chance of a draw. Madrid have won five consecutive matches and are expected to create significantly more chances, with expected goals of 1.9 to Valencia's 0.98. Valencia have mustered just one win in five games and face a Madrid side that has beaten them 2-0 and 4-0 in their last two meetings.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 19%Valencia win
  • 23%Draw
  • 58%Real Madrid win

PRO analysis

This analysis is part of PRO

PRO shows the full analysis of every match: our estimate next to the bookmaker’s price for each market, the written preview and the risks, and a signal whenever a match qualifies.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ValenciaValencia

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. won1–0at Elche
  2. lost1–2v Villarreal
  3. drew0–0v Athletic Club
  4. drew2–2at Racing Santander
  5. lost2–3v Real Sociedad
Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

  1. won3–2at AEK Athens FC
  2. won3–0at Racing Santander
  3. won2–1at Barcelona
  4. won4–1v RB Leipzig
  5. won4–1v Sevilla

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 256 of 321.
  • Real Madrid won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Valencia without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Valencia 2, draws 1, Real Madrid 7

Goals: Valencia 9, Real Madrid 24

DateMatchScore
8 Feb 2026Valencia v Real Madrid0–2
1 Nov 2025Real Madrid v Valencia4–0
5 Apr 2025Real Madrid v Valencia1–2
3 Jan 2025Valencia v Real Madrid1–2
2 Mar 2024Valencia v Real Madrid2–2
11 Nov 2023Real Madrid v Valencia5–1
21 May 2023Valencia v Real Madrid1–0
2 Feb 2023Real Madrid v Valencia2–0
8 Jan 2022Real Madrid v Valencia4–1
19 Sep 2021Valencia v Real Madrid1–2

Home and away

Valencia

Valencia at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostVillarreal24 Oct 20261–2
  • DrawnAthletic Club17 Oct 20260–0
  • LostReal Sociedad20 Sep 20262–3
  • LostBarcelona6 Sep 20260–5
  • LostReal Betis25 Aug 20260–1

Valencia: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Real Madrid

Real Madrid away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League4 Nov 20263–2
  • WonRacing Santander1 Nov 20263–0
  • WonBarcelona25 Oct 20262–1
  • WonAS RomaUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20264–3
  • LostAtletico Madrid20 Sep 20261–2

Real Madrid: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Valencia
Last match
6 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Elche · La Liga
Next match
3 days after10 Nov 2026 · v Tavernes · Copa del Rey
Real Madrid
Last match
3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League
Next match
Not known

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ValenciaReal Madrid
76Since 23 Nov 2024Matches with xG76Since 9 Nov 2024
96.00xG for160.91
90Goals scored162
96.97xG against84.23
109Goals conceded72

Valencia

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Valencia: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026at Elche0.961.331–0
24 Oct 2026v Villarreal1.171.521–2
17 Oct 2026v Athletic Club1.490.650–0
11 Oct 2026at Racing Santander1.801.282–2
20 Sep 2026v Real Sociedad1.552.652–3
15 Sep 2026at Alaves0.651.051–0
11 Sep 2026at Sevilla0.100.930–1
6 Sep 2026v Barcelona0.664.080–5
30 Aug 2026at Deportivo La Coruna1.401.421–3
25 Aug 2026v Real Betis1.120.710–1

Real Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026at Racing Santander3.411.053–0
25 Oct 2026at Barcelona2.001.272–1
18 Oct 2026v Sevilla2.280.754–1
10 Oct 2026v Villarreal1.430.591–0
20 Sep 2026at Atletico Madrid0.302.351–2
15 Sep 2026at Elche3.610.783–2
12 Sep 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.621.214–1
4 Sep 2026at Real Betis3.460.930–1
30 Aug 2026v Malaga2.620.714–0
26 Aug 2026v Real Sociedad3.140.574–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

ValenciaReal Madrid
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
9Points in those matches27
12.63xPts24.00
11.48xG for27.58
16.28xG against11.26

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Valencia and Real Madrid

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 20:08 GMT

All fixtures