Premier League match analysis

The Premier League is the top division of English football. Twenty clubs play each other home and away, the club with the most points is champion, and the three lowest-placed clubs are relegated to the Championship.

Ledger publishes an analysis page for each upcoming Premier League match it covers: the model's estimated chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, with a short written summary where one is available. Matches the model flags for a closer look carry a Signal found badge, and the full reasoning behind them is part of PRO. Finished matches stay listed with the final score.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 20:08 GMT · times in UK time

Upcoming matches

Each percentage is our estimate of how likely that result is.

Today · Fri 6 Nov

1 match

EvertonCoventry LiveNo qualifying signalMost likely: Everton win53%chance of that result Live

Sat 7 Nov

4 matches

LeedsTottenham12:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Leeds win44%chance of that result12:30
ArsenalHull City15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Arsenal win78%chance of that result15:00
FulhamNewcastle15:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Fulham win37%chance of that result15:00
Nottingham ForestManchester City17:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Manchester City win55%chance of that result17:30

Sun 8 Nov

5 matches

BrightonBrentford14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Brighton win52%chance of that result14:00
Crystal PalaceLiverpool14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Liverpool win45%chance of that result14:00
IpswichBournemouth14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Bournemouth win51%chance of that result14:00
SunderlandChelsea14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Chelsea win50%chance of that result14:00
Manchester UnitedAston Villa16:30No qualifying signalMost likely: Manchester United win39%chance of that result16:30

Table

Table as of 6 Nov 2026, 05:02 GMT · Source: API-Football

Premier League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	9	8	0	1	+9	24	WonWonWonWonLost
2	Manchester City	9	7	0	2	+10	21	LostLostWonWonWon
3	Brighton	9	6	1	2	+17	19	WonLostWonWonWon
4	Chelsea	9	5	1	3	+4	16	WonLostWonWonLost
5	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+2	15	LostWonWonLostWon
6	Brentford	9	3	5	1	+7	14	WonDrawnLostDrawnWon
7	Everton	9	3	4	2	0	13	WonLostLostDrawnWon
8	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+1	12	WonWonWonLostLost
9	Tottenham	9	3	3	3	0	12	WonWonWonDrawnLost
10	Aston Villa	9	3	3	3	-3	12	DrawnWonWonDrawnWon
11	Hull City	9	2	5	2	+1	11	DrawnDrawnLostDrawnLost
12	Leeds	9	2	5	2	+1	11	LostDrawnDrawnLostDrawn
13	Newcastle	9	3	2	4	-3	11	LostWonLostLostWon
14	Ipswich	9	3	2	4	-4	11	DrawnDrawnLostWonLost
15	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-2	9	DrawnWonWonLostDrawn
16	Coventry	9	3	0	6	-7	9	WonLostLostWonWon
17	Manchester United	9	1	4	4	-5	7	LostLostDrawnDrawnDrawn
18	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-12	7	LostLostLostWonDrawn
19	Nottingham Forest	9	1	3	5	-6	6	LostDrawnLostLostLost
20	Sunderland	9	1	2	6	-10	5	LostDrawnLostLostLost

This season

Premier League games since 21 Aug 2026, 90-minute score. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Home wins: 36 of 90
Draws: 25 of 90
Away wins: 29 of 90
Both teams scored: 43 of 90
Over 2.5 goals: 42 of 90
Goals: 135 by home teams, 108 by away teams in 90

xG and expected points

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Team	Matches with xG	Points in those matches	xPts	xG for	xG against
Arsenal	9	24	17.52	14.84	7.25
Manchester City	9	21	17.03	18.88	11.57
Brighton	9	19	14.59	17.24	13.04
Chelsea	9	16	12.58	13.25	12.73
Liverpool	9	15	13.91	13.15	10.64
Brentford	9	14	12.41	14.11	12.59
Everton	9	13	11.96	12.44	13.04
Bournemouth	9	12	15.26	15.98	10.08
Tottenham	9	12	13.69	11.87	10.13
Aston Villa	9	12	10.37	10.95	15.42
Hull City	9	11	9.40	9.22	13.42
Leeds	9	11	11.94	11.40	11.88
Newcastle	9	11	8.86	10.52	16.19
Ipswich	9	11	10.41	12.15	17.37
Fulham	9	9	13.02	13.90	12.89
Coventry	9	9	8.94	8.47	13.86
Manchester United	9	7	11.27	13.77	14.71
Crystal Palace	9	7	8.52	11.25	19.29
Nottingham Forest	9	6	15.60	14.73	9.34
Sunderland	9	5	11.89	13.32	16.00

MP: Matches with xG · xG+: xG for · xG−: xG against

Points and expected points (xPts) in each team's league matches with xG this season. These are not the league table's points: a match without xG counts in neither column.

Teams are in the order of the official league table.

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

Recently analysed

Each analysis is kept exactly as it was published before kick-off.

Questions

How many clubs play in the Premier League?

Twenty. Each club plays thirty-eight league matches, meeting every other club once at home and once away. A win is worth three points and a draw one point.

When is the Premier League season played?

The season usually starts in August and ends in May, with a busy schedule around Christmas and the New Year.

How do Ledger's analysis pages for Premier League matches work?

Each upcoming Premier League match gets its own page with the model's home, draw and away estimates and, where available, a short written summary. A Signal found badge marks matches the model has flagged; the full analysis behind it is available with PRO. Kick-off times are shown in UK time.

Is Ledger's analysis gambling advice?

No. Ledger publishes analysis, not gambling advice. Each page explains how the model reads a match and how confident it is; any decision you make is your own. Football matches can go any way, and no analysis changes that.