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Premier League
Manchester United
16:30
Aston Villa
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 10 · Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United v Aston Villa · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Manchester United win

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 39%Manchester United win
  • 26%Draw
  • 35%Aston Villa win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. won3–2v AS Roma
  2. lost0–2at Chelsea
  3. lost0–3v Bournemouth
  4. lost1–4at Como
  5. drew1–1at Leeds
Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–3at Barcelona
  2. drew1–1v Fulham
  3. lost0–3at Bournemouth
  4. won2–1v Manchester City
  5. won3–1v Viking

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Manchester United won 27 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
  • Aston Villa won 47 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Manchester United won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Manchester United's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Manchester United 6, draws 2, Aston Villa 2

Goals: Manchester United 19, Aston Villa 13

DateMatchScore
15 Mar 2026Manchester United v Aston Villa3–1
21 Dec 2025Aston Villa v Manchester United2–1
25 May 2025Manchester United v Aston Villa2–0
6 Oct 2024Aston Villa v Manchester United0–0
11 Feb 2024Aston Villa v Manchester United1–2
26 Dec 2023Manchester United v Aston Villa3–2
30 Apr 2023Manchester United v Aston Villa1–0
10 Nov 2022Manchester United v Aston VillaLeague Cup4–2
6 Nov 2022Aston Villa v Manchester United3–1
15 Jan 2022Aston Villa v Manchester United2–2

Home and away

Manchester United

Manchester United at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonAS RomaUEFA Champions League3 Nov 20263–2
  • LostBournemouth25 Oct 20260–3
  • DrawnTottenham10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBrightonLeague Cup16 Sep 20262–3
  • LostManchester City13 Sep 20260–1

Manchester United: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Aston Villa

Aston Villa away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostBarcelonaUEFA Champions League3 Nov 20260–3
  • LostBournemouthLeague Cup28 Oct 20260–3
  • WonNewcastle17 Oct 20261–0
  • WonTottenham19 Sep 20263–2
  • WonCoventryLeague Cup16 Sep 20263–1

Aston Villa: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Manchester United
Last match
5 days before3 Nov 2026 · v AS Roma · UEFA Champions League
Next match
Not known
Aston Villa
Last match
5 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Barcelona · UEFA Champions League
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Manchester United

Since 10 Nov 2024

ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
Scored first27 won, 15 drawn, 1 lost in 43 matches757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches
Conceded first11 won, 7 drawn, 27 lost in 45 matches169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches
Level at half-time14 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 41 matches306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches364 won, 128 drawn, 52 lost in 544 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes5 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 25 matches52 won, 128 drawn, 364 lost in 544 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes4 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 25 matches37 won, 114 drawn, 356 lost in 507 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches363 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 484 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes3 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 363 lost in 484 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 20 drawn, 17 lost in 64 matches628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 14 lost in 47 matches437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches78 won, 106 drawn, 321 lost in 505 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
All matches45 scored, 29 conceded (90)880 scored, 880 conceded (2460)
When leading after 75 minutes17 scored, 18 conceded (35)317 scored, 327 conceded (897)
When trailing after 75 minutes18 scored, 8 conceded (36)327 scored, 317 conceded (897)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 27(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Aston Villa

Since 9 Nov 2024

ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
Scored first47 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 56 matches757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches
Conceded first10 won, 8 drawn, 24 lost in 42 matches169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches
1 goal up at half-time20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches334 won, 129 drawn, 74 lost in 537 matches
Level at half-time21 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 44 matches306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches
1 goal down at half-time7 won, 3 drawn, 13 lost in 23 matches74 won, 129 drawn, 334 lost in 537 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes27 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches364 won, 128 drawn, 52 lost in 544 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes28 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 31 matches356 won, 114 drawn, 37 lost in 507 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 29 matches166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches416 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 422 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes26 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches363 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 484 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches
Level after 15 minutes40 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 70 matches628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches321 won, 106 drawn, 78 lost in 505 matches
Level after 30 minutes29 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost in 54 matches437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes6 won, 4 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches78 won, 106 drawn, 321 lost in 505 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
All matches36 scored, 29 conceded (103)880 scored, 880 conceded (2460)
When leading after 75 minutes19 scored, 14 conceded (49)317 scored, 327 conceded (897)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 5 conceded (27)236 scored, 236 conceded (666)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 10 conceded (27)327 scored, 317 conceded (897)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 24(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Manchester UnitedAston Villa
75Since 10 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 9 Nov 2024
115.66xG for101.05
114Goals scored107
102.02xG against108.42
107Goals conceded98

Manchester United

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester United: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Chelsea1.192.710–2
25 Oct 2026v Bournemouth1.172.150–3
18 Oct 2026at Leeds0.931.481–1
10 Oct 2026v Tottenham0.801.621–1
20 Sep 2026at Fulham1.601.621–1
13 Sep 2026v Manchester City1.001.100–1
6 Sep 2026at Everton0.691.012–2
30 Aug 2026v Ipswich4.562.015–2
22 Aug 2026at Hull City1.831.010–2
24 May 2026at Brighton1.660.793–0

Aston Villa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Aston Villa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Fulham1.872.261–1
24 Oct 2026v Manchester City0.641.812–1
17 Oct 2026at Newcastle1.631.071–0
10 Oct 2026v Brentford2.281.062–2
19 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.161.563–2
12 Sep 2026v Nottingham Forest0.822.281–2
5 Sep 2026at Hull City1.930.570–0
31 Aug 2026v Arsenal0.331.040–1
23 Aug 2026at Brighton0.293.770–4
24 May 2026at Manchester City1.771.342–1

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Manchester UnitedAston Villa
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
7Points in those matches12
11.27xPts10.37
13.77xG for10.95
14.71xG against15.42

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Manchester United and Aston Villa

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 19:33 GMT

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