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Premier League
Aston Villa
1–1Finished
Fulham
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa v Fulham match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Aston Villa are strong favourites with a 53% win probability, expected goals total of 2.67 and a gap of 0.67 in their favour. Villa have won four of their last five, while Fulham show one win, one draw and three defeats. Villa are without Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka; Fulham without Sessegnon.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 53%Aston Villa win
  • 26%Draw
  • 21%Fulham win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

  1. lost0–3at Bournemouth
  2. won2–1v Manchester City
  3. won3–1v Viking
  4. won1–0at Newcastle
  5. won6–0v Fenerbahçe
FulhamFulham

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–1v Crystal Palace
  2. won1–0at Coventry
  3. won1–0v Hull City
  4. lost1–2at Ipswich
  5. drew1–1v Manchester United

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Aston Villa won 47 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 191 of 271.
  • Aston Villa won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Aston Villa's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Aston Villa 6, draws 0, Fulham 2

Goals: Aston Villa 13, Fulham 8

DateMatchScore
25 Apr 2026Fulham v Aston Villa1–0
28 Sep 2025Aston Villa v Fulham3–1
3 May 2025Aston Villa v Fulham1–0
19 Oct 2024Fulham v Aston Villa1–3
17 Feb 2024Fulham v Aston Villa1–2
12 Nov 2023Aston Villa v Fulham3–1
25 Apr 2023Aston Villa v Fulham1–0
20 Oct 2022Fulham v Aston Villa3–0

Home and away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonManchester City24 Oct 20262–1
  • WonVikingUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20263–1
  • WonFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20266–0
  • DrawnBrentford10 Oct 20262–2
  • LostNottingham Forest12 Sep 20261–2

Aston Villa: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Fulham

Fulham away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonCoventry24 Oct 20261–0
  • LostIpswich10 Oct 20261–2
  • WonWest HamLeague Cup15 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnLiverpool12 Sep 20260–0
  • LostSunderland30 Aug 20260–1

Fulham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
6 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Aston Villa
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · League Cup
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Barcelona · UEFA Champions League
Fulham
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · League Cup
Next match
7 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Newcastle · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Aston Villa

ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
Scored first47 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 56 matches754 won, 243 drawn, 169 lost in 1166 matches
Conceded first10 won, 8 drawn, 24 lost in 42 matches169 won, 243 drawn, 754 lost in 1166 matches
1 goal up at half-time20 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches332 won, 128 drawn, 74 lost in 534 matches
Level at half-time21 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 45 matches305 won, 330 drawn, 305 lost in 940 matches
1 goal down at half-time7 won, 3 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches74 won, 128 drawn, 332 lost in 534 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes27 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches361 won, 127 drawn, 52 lost in 540 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes28 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 31 matches353 won, 114 drawn, 37 lost in 504 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches166 won, 362 drawn, 166 lost in 694 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches415 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 421 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes26 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches361 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 482 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches124 won, 398 drawn, 124 lost in 646 matches
Level after 15 minutes40 won, 13 drawn, 18 lost in 71 matches625 won, 462 drawn, 625 lost in 1712 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches319 won, 106 drawn, 78 lost in 503 matches
Level after 30 minutes29 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 55 matches436 won, 388 drawn, 436 lost in 1260 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
All matches36 scored, 31 conceded (103)880 scored, 880 conceded (2452)
When leading after 75 minutes19 scored, 14 conceded (49)317 scored, 327 conceded (894)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 5 conceded (26)236 scored, 236 conceded (664)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (28)327 scored, 317 conceded (894)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 24(league sides: 1,381 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 659)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Aston VillaFulham
75Since 3 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 4 Nov 2024
101.04xG for95.29
107Goals scored97
108.60xG against101.71
101Goals conceded103

Aston Villa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Aston Villa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Manchester City0.641.812–1
17 Oct 2026at Newcastle1.631.071–0
10 Oct 2026v Brentford2.281.062–2
19 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.161.563–2
12 Sep 2026v Nottingham Forest0.822.281–2
5 Sep 2026at Hull City1.930.570–0
31 Aug 2026v Arsenal0.331.040–1
23 Aug 2026at Brighton0.293.770–4
24 May 2026at Manchester City1.771.342–1
15 May 2026v Liverpool1.911.554–2

Fulham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fulham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Coventry0.610.581–0
17 Oct 2026v Hull City1.480.181–0
10 Oct 2026at Ipswich1.811.151–2
20 Sep 2026v Manchester United1.621.601–1
12 Sep 2026at Liverpool0.701.280–0
5 Sep 2026v Crystal Palace3.141.972–3
30 Aug 2026at Sunderland0.952.020–1
24 Aug 2026v Chelsea1.332.242–3
24 May 2026v Newcastle1.810.312–0
17 May 2026at Wolves1.591.401–1

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Aston VillaFulham
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
11Points in those matches8
9.19xPts11.40
9.08xG for11.64
13.16xG against11.02

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Aston Villa and Fulham

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Aston VillaAston Villa
    Ruled out
    A. Onana (Knee Injury) · M. Ruggeri (Muscle Injury) · A. Wan-Bissaka (Muscle Injury)
  • FulhamFulham
    Ruled out
    R. Sessegnon (Red Card)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 18:58 GMT · not changed since

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