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Premier League
Nottingham Forest
17:30
Manchester City
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 10 · City Ground, Nottingham

Nottingham Forest v Manchester City · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Manchester City win

Manchester City are heavy favourites against Nottingham Forest. Expected goals stand at 2.77 total, with City projected to create 1.77 and Forest 1. City have won three of their last five matches, while Forest have claimed just one win in their last five.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 21%Nottingham Forest win
  • 25%Draw
  • 54%Manchester City win

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Form · newest first

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

  1. lost0–2at Brentford
  2. drew1–1at Ipswich
  3. lost0–1v Arsenal
  4. lost1–3at Crystal Palace
  5. lost0–1v Coventry
Manchester CityManchester City

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won3–2at RB Leipzig
  2. lost0–1v Brighton
  3. drew2–2v Brighton
  4. lost1–2at Aston Villa
  5. won5–1v AEK Athens FC

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Nottingham Forest won 29 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 192 of 272.
  • Manchester City won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Nottingham Forest without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Nottingham Forest 1, draws 2, Manchester City 6

Goals: Nottingham Forest 5, Manchester City 20

DateMatchScore
4 Mar 2026Manchester City v Nottingham Forest2–2
27 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest v Manchester City1–2
27 Apr 2025Nottingham Forest v Manchester CityFA Cup0–2
8 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest v Manchester City1–0
4 Dec 2024Manchester City v Nottingham Forest3–0
28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest v Manchester City0–2
23 Sep 2023Manchester City v Nottingham Forest2–0
18 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest v Manchester City1–1
31 Aug 2022Manchester City v Nottingham Forest6–0

Home and away

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostArsenal18 Oct 20260–1
  • LostCoventry19 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnTottenham5 Sep 20260–0
  • LostLeedsLeague Cup25 Aug 20260–2
  • LostLeeds22 Aug 20260–1

Nottingham Forest: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
7 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
1 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Manchester City

Manchester City away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonRB LeipzigUEFA Champions League4 Nov 20263–2
  • LostAston Villa24 Oct 20261–2
  • WonLiverpool11 Oct 20263–0
  • WonManchester United13 Sep 20261–0
  • WonFC PortoUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–0

Manchester City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Nottingham Forest
Last match
7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Brentford · Premier League
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Bournemouth · Premier League
Manchester City
Last match
3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Fulham · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Nottingham Forest

ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 38 matches757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 33 lost in 46 matches169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches74 won, 129 drawn, 334 lost in 537 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches416 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 422 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 16 drawn, 26 lost in 62 matches628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches321 won, 106 drawn, 78 lost in 505 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 35 conceded (90)880 scored, 880 conceded (2460)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 11 conceded (32)317 scored, 327 conceded (897)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 9 conceded (26)236 scored, 236 conceded (666)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 15 conceded (32)327 scored, 317 conceded (897)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Nottingham ForestManchester City
75Since 10 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 9 Nov 2024
93.13xG for138.63
98Goals scored148
106.40xG against92.70
102Goals conceded78

Nottingham Forest

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nottingham Forest: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Brentford0.880.510–2
23 Oct 2026at Ipswich2.310.491–1
18 Oct 2026v Arsenal0.941.160–1
11 Oct 2026at Crystal Palace3.342.411–3
19 Sep 2026v Coventry1.100.670–1
12 Sep 2026at Aston Villa2.280.822–1
5 Sep 2026v Tottenham0.921.060–0
29 Aug 2026at Liverpool2.301.752–2
22 Aug 2026v Leeds0.660.470–1
24 May 2026v Bournemouth1.730.951–1

Manchester City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Brighton1.681.020–1
24 Oct 2026at Aston Villa1.810.641–2
17 Oct 2026v Ipswich3.611.723–2
11 Oct 2026at Liverpool1.280.943–0
20 Sep 2026v Sunderland2.823.575–3
13 Sep 2026at Manchester United1.101.001–0
5 Sep 2026v Coventry2.121.371–0
28 Aug 2026at Crystal Palace2.210.664–1
23 Aug 2026v Bournemouth2.250.652–1
24 May 2026v Aston Villa1.341.771–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Nottingham ForestManchester City
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
6Points in those matches21
15.60xPts17.03
14.73xG for18.88
9.34xG against11.57

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Nottingham Forest and Manchester City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 16:27 GMT

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