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Premier League
Newcastle
0–1Finished
Everton
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 9 · St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle v Everton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 2 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Newcastle host Everton with the model giving the home side a 46% chance of victory, 27% for a draw and 27% for an away win. Newcastle are expected to create slightly more chances (1.54 expected goals versus 1.15), a gap of 0.39 in their favour. Newcastle have won one of their last five matches, while Everton drew one of their recent five; Everton won the teams' last meeting 3-1.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 46%Newcastle win
  • 27%Draw
  • 27%Everton win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–3at Everton
  2. won2–0at Crystal Palace
  3. lost0–1v Aston Villa
  4. lost1–4at Coventry
  5. won2–1v Hull City
EvertonEverton

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won3–1v Newcastle
  2. lost0–2at Arsenal
  3. lost0–2v Chelsea
  4. drew2–2at Hull City
  5. won1–0v Ipswich

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 192 of 272.
  • Everton won 22 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Everton won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Newcastle's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Newcastle 3, draws 2, Everton 5

Goals: Newcastle 13, Everton 14

DateMatchScore
29 Oct 2026Everton v NewcastleLeague Cup3–1
28 Feb 2026Newcastle v Everton2–3
29 Nov 2025Everton v Newcastle1–4
25 May 2025Newcastle v Everton0–1
5 Oct 2024Everton v Newcastle0–0
2 Apr 2024Newcastle v Everton1–1
7 Dec 2023Everton v Newcastle3–0
27 Apr 2023Everton v Newcastle1–4
19 Oct 2022Newcastle v Everton1–0
17 Mar 2022Everton v Newcastle1–0

Home and away

Newcastle

Newcastle at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostAston Villa17 Oct 20260–1
  • WonHull City19 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnBournemouth5 Sep 20262–2
  • WonWest BromLeague Cup26 Aug 20263–2
  • DrawnLiverpool23 Aug 20262–2

Newcastle: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Everton

Everton away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostArsenal24 Oct 20260–2
  • DrawnHull City11 Oct 20262–2
  • DrawnTottenham12 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnBournemouth29 Aug 20261–1
  • WonPrestonLeague Cup26 Aug 20264–0

Everton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Newcastle
Last match
4 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Everton · League Cup
Next match
5 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Fulham · Premier League
Everton
Last match
4 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Newcastle · League Cup
Next match
4 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Coventry · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Everton

ScoreEvertonLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches756 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1169 matches
Conceded first3 won, 11 drawn, 22 lost in 36 matches169 won, 244 drawn, 756 lost in 1169 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 16 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches305 won, 330 drawn, 305 lost in 940 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 19 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 21 drawn, 19 lost in 58 matches627 won, 464 drawn, 627 lost in 1718 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 18 drawn, 14 lost in 45 matches436 won, 390 drawn, 436 lost in 1262 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreEvertonLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 25 conceded (75)880 scored, 880 conceded (2458)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 10 conceded (24)317 scored, 327 conceded (896)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 10 conceded (25)236 scored, 236 conceded (666)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 5 conceded (26)327 scored, 317 conceded (896)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 34 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 17(league sides: 1,384 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

NewcastleEverton
74Since 10 Nov 2024Matches with xG74Since 9 Nov 2024
116.90xG for88.02
123Goals scored87
97.33xG against99.71
106Goals conceded86

Newcastle

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Newcastle: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Crystal Palace0.951.592–0
17 Oct 2026v Aston Villa1.071.630–1
12 Oct 2026at Coventry1.841.471–4
19 Sep 2026v Hull City1.441.592–1
14 Sep 2026at Leeds0.882.081–4
5 Sep 2026v Bournemouth0.711.372–2
29 Aug 2026at Tottenham0.721.122–0
23 Aug 2026v Liverpool1.582.982–2
24 May 2026at Fulham0.311.810–2
17 May 2026v West Ham1.730.953–1

Everton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Everton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Arsenal0.541.850–2
17 Oct 2026v Chelsea0.541.590–2
11 Oct 2026at Hull City1.681.332–2
19 Sep 2026v Ipswich2.241.441–0
12 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.110.690–0
6 Sep 2026v Manchester United1.010.692–2
29 Aug 2026at Bournemouth1.842.161–1
22 Aug 2026v Crystal Palace1.121.962–0
24 May 2026at Tottenham0.411.150–1
17 May 2026v Sunderland1.040.761–3

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

NewcastleEverton
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
11Points in those matches10
8.05xPts9.96
9.19xG for10.08
13.83xG against11.71

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Newcastle and Everton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • NewcastleNewcastle
    Ruled out
    E. Jaouen (Muscle Injury) · V. Livramento (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Fernandez-Pardo (Illness) · L. Miley (Muscle Injury) · W. Osula (Ankle Injury)
  • EvertonEverton
    Doubtful
    J. Grealish (Coach's decision)

Published 2 Nov 2026, 18:57 GMT · not changed since

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