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Premier League
Brentford
2–0Finished
Nottingham Forest
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Gtech Community Stadium, London

Brentford v Nottingham Forest match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Brentford are slight favourites at 51% to win, with Nottingham Forest given a 23% chance and a draw at 26%. The hosts expect to create more, with expected goals of 1.65 against Forest's 1.06, a gap of 0.59. Both sides have inconsistent form: Brentford alternate wins and losses while Forest have won only once in five, though they did beat Brentford 2-0 in their last meeting.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%Brentford win
  • 26%Draw
  • 23%Nottingham Forest win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BrentfordBrentford

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost2–3at Sunderland
  2. drew1–1at Hull City
  3. lost1–2v Liverpool
  4. drew2–2at Aston Villa
  5. won3–0v Chelsea
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. drew1–1at Ipswich
  2. lost0–1v Arsenal
  3. lost1–3at Crystal Palace
  4. lost0–1v Coventry
  5. won2–1at Aston Villa

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 189 of 268.
  • Nottingham Forest won 30 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Brentford's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Nottingham Forest's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Brentford 3, draws 2, Nottingham Forest 3

Goals: Brentford 11, Nottingham Forest 13

DateMatchScore
25 Jan 2026Brentford v Nottingham Forest0–2
17 Aug 2025Nottingham Forest v Brentford3–1
1 May 2025Nottingham Forest v Brentford0–2
21 Dec 2024Brentford v Nottingham Forest0–2
20 Jan 2024Brentford v Nottingham Forest3–2
1 Oct 2023Nottingham Forest v Brentford1–1
29 Apr 2023Brentford v Nottingham Forest2–1
5 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest v Brentford2–2

Home and away

Brentford

Brentford at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostLiverpool17 Oct 20261–2
  • WonChelsea18 Sep 20263–0
  • DrawnSunderland5 Sep 20261–1
  • WonTottenham22 Aug 20263–0
  • DrawnCrystal Palace17 May 20262–2

Brentford: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnIpswich23 Oct 20261–1
  • LostCrystal Palace11 Oct 20261–3
  • WonAston Villa12 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLiverpool29 Aug 20262–2
  • LostManchester United17 May 20262–3

Nottingham Forest: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Brentford
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Sunderland · League Cup
Next match
8 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Brighton · Premier League
Nottingham Forest
Last match
8 days before23 Oct 2026 · v Ipswich · Premier League
Next match
7 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Manchester City · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Nottingham Forest

ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
Scored first30 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 39 matches749 won, 242 drawn, 169 lost in 1160 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 32 lost in 45 matches169 won, 242 drawn, 749 lost in 1160 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches304 won, 330 drawn, 304 lost in 938 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches74 won, 127 drawn, 329 lost in 530 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches211 won, 328 drawn, 211 lost in 750 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches166 won, 362 drawn, 166 lost in 694 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches412 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 418 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches124 won, 396 drawn, 124 lost in 644 matches
Level after 15 minutes21 won, 16 drawn, 25 lost in 62 matches621 won, 460 drawn, 621 lost in 1702 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes14 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches316 won, 105 drawn, 78 lost in 499 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches434 won, 388 drawn, 434 lost in 1256 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 34 conceded (90)878 scored, 878 conceded (2440)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (33)315 scored, 327 conceded (889)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 9 conceded (26)236 scored, 236 conceded (662)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 14 conceded (31)327 scored, 315 conceded (889)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,374 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 657)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BrentfordNottingham Forest
75Since 4 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 2 Nov 2024
117.97xG for94.42
117Goals scored101
106.53xG against106.02
100Goals conceded100

Brentford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brentford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Hull City1.741.571–1
17 Oct 2026v Liverpool0.901.541–2
10 Oct 2026at Aston Villa1.062.282–2
18 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.650.833–0
12 Sep 2026at Bournemouth0.501.752–2
5 Sep 2026v Sunderland1.211.711–1
30 Aug 2026at Leeds1.671.461–1
22 Aug 2026v Tottenham3.870.573–0
24 May 2026at Liverpool1.563.041–1
17 May 2026v Crystal Palace1.711.722–2

Nottingham Forest

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nottingham Forest: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
23 Oct 2026at Ipswich2.310.491–1
18 Oct 2026v Arsenal0.941.160–1
11 Oct 2026at Crystal Palace3.342.411–3
19 Sep 2026v Coventry1.100.670–1
12 Sep 2026at Aston Villa2.280.822–1
5 Sep 2026v Tottenham0.921.060–0
29 Aug 2026at Liverpool2.301.752–2
22 Aug 2026v Leeds0.660.470–1
24 May 2026v Bournemouth1.730.951–1
17 May 2026at Manchester United1.884.572–3

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

BrentfordNottingham Forest
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
11Points in those matches6
11.43xPts13.95
13.60xG for13.85
11.71xG against8.83

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Brentford and Nottingham Forest

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BrentfordBrentford
    Ruled out
    F. Carvalho (Injury) · K. Furo (Surgery) · R. Henry (Hip Injury) · Y. Yarmolyuk (Red Card)
    Doubtful
    J. Dasilva (Muscle Injury) · A. Milambo (Knock)
  • Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    Ruled out
    Igor Jesus (Calf Injury) · D. Ndoye (Muscle Injury) · N. Savona (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Dominguez (Muscle Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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