LEDGER
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Premier League
Liverpool
0–1Finished
Arsenal
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:30 GMTMatchday 9 · Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool v Arsenal match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Arsenal a 40% chance of winning this encounter, with Liverpool at 32% and a draw at 28%. Expected goals stand at 2.57, with a gap of 0.19 in Arsenal's favour. Liverpool have won four of their last five, while Arsenal are less consistent with two draws in their previous five matches. Both sides face injury concerns that could shape the contest.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 32%Liverpool win
  • 28%Draw
  • 40%Arsenal win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LiverpoolLiverpool

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

  1. drew1–1v Chelsea
  2. won2–0v Brighton
  3. won4–3v Villarreal
  4. won2–1at Brentford
  5. won6–3at Lask Linz
ArsenalArsenal

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

  1. drew1–1at Fleetwood Town
  2. won2–0v Everton
  3. drew2–2at Bayern München
  4. won1–0at Nottingham Forest
  5. won3–0v Lille

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 192 of 272.
  • Liverpool won 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Liverpool 3, draws 5, Arsenal 2

Goals: Liverpool 15, Arsenal 13

DateMatchScore
8 Jan 2026Arsenal v Liverpool0–0
31 Aug 2025Liverpool v Arsenal1–0
11 May 2025Liverpool v Arsenal2–2
27 Oct 2024Arsenal v Liverpool2–2
4 Feb 2024Arsenal v Liverpool3–1
7 Jan 2024Arsenal v LiverpoolFA Cup0–2
23 Dec 2023Liverpool v Arsenal1–1
9 Apr 2023Liverpool v Arsenal2–2
9 Oct 2022Arsenal v Liverpool3–2
16 Mar 2022Arsenal v Liverpool0–2

Home and away

Liverpool

Liverpool at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnChelseaLeague Cup28 Oct 20261–1 PEN
  • WonBrighton25 Oct 20262–0
  • WonVillarrealUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20264–3
  • LostManchester City11 Oct 20260–3
  • WonTottenhamLeague Cup15 Sep 20263–1

Liverpool: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Arsenal

Arsenal away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnFleetwood TownLeague Cup27 Oct 20261–1 PEN
  • DrawnBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20262–2
  • WonNottingham Forest18 Oct 20261–0
  • LostBrighton19 Sep 20260–3
  • WonIpswichLeague Cup15 Sep 20264–2

Arsenal: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Liverpool
Last match
4 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Chelsea · League Cup
Next match
3 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League
Arsenal
Last match
5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Fleetwood Town · League Cup
Next match
3 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

LiverpoolArsenal
75Matches with xG75
139.39xG for126.12
143Goals scored136
88.72xG against59.66
97Goals conceded56

Liverpool

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Liverpool: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Brighton1.201.322–0
17 Oct 2026at Brentford1.540.902–1
11 Oct 2026v Manchester City0.941.280–3
20 Sep 2026at Bournemouth1.650.791–0
12 Sep 2026v Fulham1.280.700–0
4 Sep 2026at Ipswich0.690.752–0
29 Aug 2026v Nottingham Forest1.752.302–2
23 Aug 2026at Newcastle2.981.582–2
24 May 2026v Brentford3.041.561–1
15 May 2026at Aston Villa1.551.912–4

Arsenal

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Arsenal: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Everton1.850.542–0
18 Oct 2026at Nottingham Forest1.160.941–0
10 Oct 2026v Leeds2.330.622–1
19 Sep 2026at Brighton1.631.310–3
12 Sep 2026at Sunderland1.881.802–0
6 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.050.392–1
31 Aug 2026at Aston Villa1.040.331–0
21 Aug 2026v Coventry1.880.203–0
24 May 2026at Crystal Palace2.530.982–1
18 May 2026v Burnley1.290.191–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LiverpoolArsenal
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
15Points in those matches21
12.48xPts16.25
12.03xG for13.82
9.62xG against6.13

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Liverpool and Arsenal

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LiverpoolLiverpool
    Ruled out
    C. Bradley (Knee Injury) · H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury) · J. Frimpong (Muscle Injury) · G. Leoni (Knee Injury) · A. Nallo (Leg Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. Szoboszlai (Muscle Injury)
  • ArsenalArsenal
    Ruled out
    M. Dowman (Red Card) · B. Saka (Thigh Injury) · W. Saliba (Back Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Calafiori (Ribs Injury) · C. Tzolis (Hamstring Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 15:27 GMT · not changed since

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