Ipswich v Bournemouth · analysis and preview
Add to JournalNo signal on this match
Most likely: Bournemouth win
The model gives Bournemouth a 51% chance of winning. Bournemouth average 1.78 expected goals to Ipswich's 1.17, a gap of 0.61. Bournemouth have won their last five matches, while Ipswich have taken just one point from five. The visitors won both league meetings last season.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 24%Ipswich win
- 25%Draw
- 51%Bournemouth win
PRO analysis
This analysis is part of PRO
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Form · newest first
IpswichLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- drew2–2at Hull City
- drew1–1v Nottingham Forest
- lost2–3at Manchester City
- won2–1v Fulham
- lost0–1at Everton
BournemouthLast 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats
- won3–1at Sparta Praha
- won2–0v Leeds
- won3–0v Aston Villa
- won3–0at Manchester United
- won3–0v AC Milan
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Ipswich won 26 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Bournemouth won 26 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Ipswich's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Ipswich 1, draws 0, Bournemouth 1
Goals: Ipswich 3, Bournemouth 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2025 | Bournemouth v Ipswich | 1–2 |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Ipswich v Bournemouth | 1–2 |
Home and away
IpswichIpswich at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnNottingham Forest23 Oct 20261–1
- WonFulham10 Oct 20262–1
- LostArsenalLeague Cup15 Sep 20262–4
- LostLiverpool4 Sep 20260–2
- WonLeicesterLeague Cup25 Aug 20263–1
Ipswich: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
BournemouthBournemouth away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSparta PrahaUEFA Europa League5 Nov 20263–1
- WonManchester United25 Oct 20263–0
- LostChelsea10 Oct 20261–5
- WonReal SociedadUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnNewcastle5 Sep 20262–2
Bournemouth: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Ipswich- Last match
- 8 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Hull City · Premier League
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Tottenham · Premier League
Bournemouth- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Sparta Praha · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Ipswich
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Score | Ipswich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 38 matches | 757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 11 drawn, 27 lost in 42 matches | 169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 334 won, 129 drawn, 74 lost in 537 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 19 drawn, 22 lost in 58 matches | 628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 16 drawn, 13 lost in 45 matches | 437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Ipswich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 34 scored, 21 conceded (83) | 880 scored, 880 conceded (2460) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 317 scored, 327 conceded (897) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (24) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (666) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 9 conceded (33) | 327 scored, 317 conceded (897) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 50 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 24(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bournemouth
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | Bournemouth | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 43 matches | 757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 30 matches | 169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 16 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches | 334 won, 129 drawn, 74 lost in 537 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches | 364 won, 128 drawn, 52 lost in 544 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 356 won, 114 drawn, 37 lost in 507 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 363 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 484 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 19 won, 24 drawn, 12 lost in 55 matches | 628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 321 won, 106 drawn, 78 lost in 505 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 20 drawn, 10 lost in 44 matches | 437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bournemouth | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 36 scored, 24 conceded (80) | 880 scored, 880 conceded (2460) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 14 conceded (37) | 317 scored, 327 conceded (897) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 6 conceded (24) | 327 scored, 317 conceded (897) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 83Since 10 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 9 Nov 2024 |
| 116.51 | xG for | 126.41 |
| 120 | Goals scored | 117 |
| 115.23 | xG against | 102.76 |
| 126 | Goals conceded | 101 |
Ipswich
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Hull City | 1.12 | 0.87 | 2–2 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | v Nottingham Forest | 0.49 | 2.31 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Manchester City | 1.72 | 3.61 | 2–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fulham | 1.15 | 1.81 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Everton | 1.44 | 2.24 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Crystal Palace | 1.67 | 0.62 | 3–2 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Liverpool | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Manchester United | 2.01 | 4.56 | 2–5 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Sunderland | 1.80 | 0.66 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v QPR | 2.53 | 0.84 | 3–0 |
Bournemouth
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Leeds | 1.33 | 0.73 | 2–0 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Manchester United | 2.15 | 1.17 | 3–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Sunderland | 4.40 | 0.13 | 2–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Chelsea | 1.38 | 1.10 | 1–5 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Liverpool | 0.79 | 1.65 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Brentford | 1.75 | 0.50 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Newcastle | 1.37 | 0.71 | 2–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Everton | 2.16 | 1.84 | 1–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Manchester City | 0.65 | 2.25 | 1–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Nottingham Forest | 0.95 | 1.73 | 1–1 |
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 12 |
| 10.41 | xPts | 15.26 |
| 12.15 | xG for | 15.98 |
| 17.37 | xG against | 10.08 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Ipswich and Bournemouth
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:03 GMT
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