Brighton v Brentford · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Brighton win
The model gives Brighton a 52% chance of winning, with Brentford at 23% and a draw at 25%. Expected goals stand at 2.92 total with a 0.64 gap in Brighton's favour. Brighton have won two of their last five (WWDLD), while Brentford have one win in their last five (WLDLD).
How the match could end · our estimate
- 52%Brighton win
- 25%Draw
- 23%Brentford win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
BrightonLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- won1–0at Getafe
- won1–0at Manchester City
- drew2–2at Manchester City
- lost0–2at Liverpool
- drew0–0at FK Jablonec
BrentfordLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- won2–0v Nottingham Forest
- lost2–3at Sunderland
- drew1–1at Hull City
- lost1–2v Liverpool
- drew2–2at Aston Villa
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 192 of 272.
- Brighton won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Brighton unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Brighton's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Brighton 5, draws 3, Brentford 2
Goals: Brighton 14, Brentford 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Brentford v Brighton | 0–2 |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Brighton v Brentford | 2–1 |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Brentford v Brighton | 4–2 |
| 27 Dec 2024 | Brighton v Brentford | 0–0 |
| 3 Apr 2024 | Brentford v Brighton | 0–0 |
| 6 Dec 2023 | Brighton v Brentford | 2–1 |
| 1 Apr 2023 | Brighton v Brentford | 3–3 |
| 14 Oct 2022 | Brentford v Brighton | 2–0 |
| 26 Dec 2021 | Brighton v Brentford | 2–0 |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Brentford v Brighton | 0–1 |
Home and away
BrightonBrighton at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonCrystal Palace18 Oct 20265–0
- WonKauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20264–0
- WonArsenal19 Sep 20263–0
- DrawnLeeds5 Sep 20261–1
- WonTromsoUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20264–0
Brighton: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
BrentfordBrentford away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- LostSunderlandLeague Cup28 Oct 20262–3
- DrawnHull City25 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnAston Villa10 Oct 20262–2
- WonReadingLeague Cup15 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnBournemouth12 Sep 20262–2
Brentford: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Brighton- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Getafe · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- Not known
Brentford- Last match
- 8 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Next match
- Not known
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Brighton | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | 75 |
| 119.68 | xG for | 117.89 |
| 125 | Goals scored | 118 |
| 100.70 | xG against | 106.04 |
| 98 | Goals conceded | 98 |
Brighton
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Manchester City | 1.02 | 1.68 | 1–0 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Liverpool | 1.32 | 1.20 | 0–2 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Crystal Palace | 2.00 | 0.77 | 5–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Sunderland | 1.41 | 0.72 | 2–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Arsenal | 1.31 | 1.63 | 3–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Coventry | 2.81 | 1.33 | 5–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Leeds | 2.19 | 2.49 | 1–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Chelsea | 1.41 | 2.93 | 3–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Aston Villa | 3.77 | 0.29 | 4–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Manchester United | 0.79 | 1.66 | 0–3 |
Brentford
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Nottingham Forest | 0.51 | 0.88 | 2–0 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Hull City | 1.74 | 1.57 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Liverpool | 0.90 | 1.54 | 1–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Aston Villa | 1.06 | 2.28 | 2–2 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Chelsea | 2.65 | 0.83 | 3–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Bournemouth | 0.50 | 1.75 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Sunderland | 1.21 | 1.71 | 1–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Leeds | 1.67 | 1.46 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Tottenham | 3.87 | 0.57 | 3–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Liverpool | 1.56 | 3.04 | 1–1 |
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Brighton | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 19 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 14.59 | xPts | 12.41 |
| 17.24 | xG for | 14.11 |
| 13.04 | xG against | 12.59 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Brighton and Brentford
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:03 GMT
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