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Premier League
Manchester City
0–1Finished
Brighton
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City v Brighton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 54%Manchester City win
  • 24%Draw
  • 22%Brighton win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Manchester CityManchester City

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. drew2–2v Brighton
  2. lost1–2at Aston Villa
  3. won5–1v AEK Athens FC
  4. won3–2v Ipswich
  5. lost2–4v Paris Saint Germain
BrightonBrighton

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. drew2–2at Manchester City
  2. lost0–2at Liverpool
  3. won5–0v Crystal Palace
  4. won2–0at Sunderland
  5. won3–0v Arsenal

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 189 of 268.
  • Manchester City won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Manchester City's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester City's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Manchester City 4, draws 4, Brighton 2

Goals: Manchester City 20, Brighton 12

DateMatchScore
28 Oct 2026Manchester City v BrightonLeague Cup2–2 PEN
7 Jan 2026Manchester City v Brighton1–1
31 Aug 2025Brighton v Manchester City2–1
15 Mar 2025Manchester City v Brighton2–2
9 Nov 2024Brighton v Manchester City2–1
25 Apr 2024Brighton v Manchester City0–4
21 Oct 2023Manchester City v Brighton2–1
24 May 2023Brighton v Manchester City1–1
22 Oct 2022Manchester City v Brighton3–1
20 Apr 2022Manchester City v Brighton3–0

Home and away

Manchester City

Manchester City at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnBrightonLeague Cup28 Oct 20262–2 PEN
  • WonAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20265–1
  • WonIpswich17 Oct 20263–2
  • LostParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20262–4
  • WonSunderland20 Sep 20265–3

Manchester City: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Brighton

Brighton away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnManchester CityLeague Cup28 Oct 20262–2 PEN
  • LostLiverpool25 Oct 20260–2
  • DrawnFK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20260–0
  • WonSunderland10 Oct 20262–0
  • WonManchester UnitedLeague Cup16 Sep 20263–2

Brighton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Manchester City
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Brighton · League Cup
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League
Brighton
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Manchester City · League Cup
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Getafe · UEFA Europa Conference League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

Manchester CityBrighton
75Matches with xG75
138.51xG for119.67
149Goals scored125
93.72xG against100.67
79Goals conceded100

Manchester City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Aston Villa1.810.641–2
17 Oct 2026v Ipswich3.611.723–2
11 Oct 2026at Liverpool1.280.943–0
20 Sep 2026v Sunderland2.823.575–3
13 Sep 2026at Manchester United1.101.001–0
5 Sep 2026v Coventry2.121.371–0
28 Aug 2026at Crystal Palace2.210.664–1
23 Aug 2026v Bournemouth2.250.652–1
24 May 2026v Aston Villa1.341.771–2
19 May 2026at Bournemouth1.482.251–1

Brighton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brighton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Liverpool1.321.200–2
18 Oct 2026v Crystal Palace2.000.775–0
10 Oct 2026at Sunderland1.410.722–0
19 Sep 2026v Arsenal1.311.633–0
13 Sep 2026at Coventry2.811.335–0
5 Sep 2026v Leeds2.192.491–1
30 Aug 2026at Chelsea1.412.933–4
23 Aug 2026v Aston Villa3.770.294–0
24 May 2026v Manchester United0.791.660–3
17 May 2026at Leeds3.060.390–1

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Manchester CityBrighton
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
21Points in those matches16
15.21xPts13.66
17.20xG for16.22
10.55xG against11.36

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Manchester City and Brighton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Manchester CityManchester City
    Ruled out
    A. Semenyo (Knee Injury)
  • BrightonBrighton
    Ruled out
    F. Azeez (Abdominal strain) · E. Ferguson (Ankle Injury) · K. Mitoma (Hamstring Injury) · P. Struijk (Rest) · S. Tzimas (Knee Injury) · Z. Yohanna (Injury)
    Doubtful
    C. Andres (Muscle Injury) · F. Kadioglu (Hip Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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