Sunderland v Chelsea · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Chelsea win
The model gives Chelsea a 50% chance of winning, with Sunderland at 24% and a draw at 26%. Chelsea show stronger recent form with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Sunderland have two losses and three draws. Expected goals total 2.7, with a gap of 0.58 in Chelsea's favour. Sunderland won both recent head-to-head meetings.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 24%Sunderland win
- 26%Draw
- 50%Chelsea win
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Form · newest first
SunderlandLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- lost0–2v Dinamo Zagreb
- lost1–3at Coventry
- won3–2v Brentford
- drew0–0v Leeds
- drew1–1at Lech Poznan
ChelseaLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- won2–0v Manchester United
- drew1–1at Liverpool
- lost0–2v Tottenham
- won2–0at Everton
- won5–1v Bournemouth
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Provisional: a recent score not yet confirmed.
Trends
- Sunderland won 20 of 31 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 192 of 272.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Sunderland's last 10 home league games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Sunderland 2, draws 0, Chelsea 0
Goals: Sunderland 4, Chelsea 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Sunderland v Chelsea | 2–1 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Chelsea v Sunderland | 1–2 |
Home and away
SunderlandSunderland at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostDinamo ZagrebProvisionalUEFA Europa League5 Nov 20260–2
- WonBrentfordLeague Cup28 Oct 20263–2
- DrawnLeeds25 Oct 20260–0
- LostBrighton10 Oct 20260–2
- WonAZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20261–0
Sunderland: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 5 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 2 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
ChelseaChelsea away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnLiverpoolLeague Cup28 Oct 20261–1 PEN
- WonEverton17 Oct 20262–0
- LostBrentford18 Sep 20260–3
- LostArsenal6 Sep 20261–2
- WonFulham24 Aug 20263–2
Chelsea: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 19 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Sunderland- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- Not known
Chelsea- Last match
- 8 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Manchester United · Premier League
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Sunderland
| Score | Sunderland | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 9 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches | 757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches |
| Conceded first | 12 won, 8 drawn, 27 lost in 47 matches | 169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches | 306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 17 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches | 211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 34 matches | 166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 363 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 484 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 21 drawn, 25 lost in 69 matches | 628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 47 matches | 437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 7 won, 3 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches | 78 won, 106 drawn, 321 lost in 505 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Sunderland | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 23 conceded (86) | 880 scored, 880 conceded (2460) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 8 conceded (28) | 317 scored, 327 conceded (897) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 7 conceded (29) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (666) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 8 conceded (29) | 327 scored, 317 conceded (897) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 26(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Sunderland | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 81Since 9 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 10 Nov 2024 |
| 95.01 | xG for | 130.54 |
| 88 | Goals scored | 121 |
| 106.18 | xG against | 99.85 |
| 102 | Goals conceded | 98 |
Sunderland
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Coventry | 1.88 | 0.77 | 1–3 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Leeds | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Bournemouth | 0.13 | 4.40 | 0–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Brighton | 0.72 | 1.41 | 0–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Manchester City | 3.57 | 2.82 | 3–5 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Arsenal | 1.80 | 1.88 | 0–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Brentford | 1.71 | 1.21 | 1–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Fulham | 2.02 | 0.95 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Ipswich | 0.66 | 1.80 | 1–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Chelsea | 1.84 | 0.89 | 2–1 |
Chelsea
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Manchester United | 2.71 | 1.19 | 2–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Tottenham | 0.55 | 0.80 | 0–2 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Everton | 1.59 | 0.54 | 2–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Bournemouth | 1.10 | 1.38 | 5–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Brentford | 0.83 | 2.65 | 0–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Hull City | 0.91 | 1.38 | 2–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Arsenal | 0.39 | 2.05 | 1–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Brighton | 2.93 | 1.41 | 4–3 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at Fulham | 2.24 | 1.33 | 3–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Sunderland | 0.89 | 1.84 | 1–2 |
Sunderland: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Sunderland | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 5 | Points in those matches | 16 |
| 11.89 | xPts | 12.58 |
| 13.32 | xG for | 13.25 |
| 16.00 | xG against | 12.73 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Sunderland and Chelsea
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 6 Nov 2026, 20:08 GMT
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