Arsenal v Hull City match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Arsenal a 78% chance of winning, with a 16% probability of a draw and 6% for Hull. Expected goals total 2.91 with a gap of 1.81 in Arsenal's favour. Arsenal have won two of their last five with two draws, while Hull have one win in five, including two consecutive defeats before their most recent match.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 78%Arsenal win
- 16%Draw
- 6%Hull City win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
ArsenalLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
- won2–1at Slavia Praha
- won1–0at Liverpool
- drew1–1at Fleetwood Town
- won2–0v Everton
- drew2–2at Bayern München
Hull CityLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
- drew2–2v Ipswich
- drew1–1v Brentford
- lost0–1at Fulham
- drew2–2v Everton
- lost1–2at Newcastle
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 192 of 272.
- Hull City won 28 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Arsenal unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Home and away
ArsenalArsenal at home
Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost
- WonEverton24 Oct 20262–0
- WonLilleUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20263–0
- WonLeeds10 Oct 20262–1
- WonChelsea6 Sep 20262–1
- WonCoventry21 Aug 20263–0
Arsenal: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 5 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
Hull CityHull City away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostFulham17 Oct 20260–1
- LostNewcastle19 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnChelsea12 Sep 20262–2
- LostSunderlandLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–1
- WonCoventry29 Aug 20261–0
Hull City: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Arsenal- Last match
- 3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Newcastle · Premier League
Hull City- Last match
- 7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Ipswich · Premier League
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Hull City
| Score | Hull City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 28 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 46 matches | 757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 7 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches | 169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 10 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 334 won, 129 drawn, 74 lost in 537 matches |
| Level at half-time | 16 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 44 matches | 306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 15 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 42 matches | 211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 11 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches | 166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 17 lost in 24 matches | 37 won, 114 drawn, 356 lost in 507 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 20 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 363 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 484 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 19 drawn, 4 lost in 29 matches | 124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 19 lost in 21 matches | 22 won, 99 drawn, 363 lost in 484 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 18 drawn, 25 lost in 69 matches | 628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 10 won, 7 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches | 321 won, 106 drawn, 78 lost in 505 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 52 matches | 437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Hull City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 20 conceded (90) | 880 scored, 880 conceded (2460) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 8 conceded (27) | 317 scored, 327 conceded (897) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 7 conceded (32) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (666) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (31) | 327 scored, 317 conceded (897) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 22(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Arsenal | Hull City | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | 90 |
| 126.09 | xG for | 106.65 |
| 137 | Goals scored | 113 |
| 60.25 | xG against | 131.04 |
| 55 | Goals conceded | 112 |
Arsenal
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | at Liverpool | 1.02 | 1.12 | 1–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Everton | 1.85 | 0.54 | 2–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Nottingham Forest | 1.16 | 0.94 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Leeds | 2.33 | 0.62 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Brighton | 1.63 | 1.31 | 0–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Sunderland | 1.88 | 1.80 | 2–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Chelsea | 2.05 | 0.39 | 2–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Aston Villa | 1.04 | 0.33 | 1–0 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | v Coventry | 1.88 | 0.20 | 3–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Crystal Palace | 2.53 | 0.98 | 2–1 |
Hull City
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Ipswich | 0.87 | 1.12 | 2–2 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Brentford | 1.57 | 1.74 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Fulham | 0.18 | 1.48 | 0–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Everton | 1.33 | 1.68 | 2–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Newcastle | 1.59 | 1.44 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Chelsea | 1.38 | 0.91 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Aston Villa | 0.57 | 1.93 | 0–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Coventry | 0.72 | 1.29 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Manchester United | 1.01 | 1.83 | 2–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 0.71 | 0.78 | 1–0 |
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Arsenal | Hull City | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 24 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 17.52 | xPts | 9.40 |
| 14.84 | xG for | 9.22 |
| 7.25 | xG against | 13.42 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Arsenal and Hull City
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since
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