Leeds v Tottenham match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Leeds host Tottenham with the model giving the hosts a 44% chance of victory. Expected goals total 2.65, with Leeds showing a 0.31 advantage. Leeds have won just once in their last five games, while Tottenham have taken three wins from five and drew 1-1 when these sides last met at Tottenham in May.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 44%Leeds win
- 28%Draw
- 28%Tottenham win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LeedsLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
- lost0–2at Bournemouth
- drew0–0at Sunderland
- drew1–1v Manchester United
- lost1–2at Arsenal
- drew0–0v Crystal Palace
TottenhamLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- won2–0v Crystal Palace
- won2–0at Chelsea
- won3–1v Coventry
- drew1–1at Manchester United
- lost2–3v Aston Villa
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Leeds won 30 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Tottenham won 32 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 7 Nov 2024.
- Tottenham won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
- Leeds unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Leeds 0, draws 1, Tottenham 5
Goals: Leeds 7, Tottenham 17
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Tottenham v Leeds | 1–1 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Leeds v Tottenham | 1–2 |
| 28 May 2023 | Leeds v Tottenham | 1–4 |
| 12 Nov 2022 | Tottenham v Leeds | 4–3 |
| 26 Feb 2022 | Leeds v Tottenham | 0–4 |
| 21 Nov 2021 | Tottenham v Leeds | 2–1 |
Home and away
LeedsLeeds at home
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnManchester United18 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnCrystal Palace20 Sep 20260–0
- WonNewcastle14 Sep 20264–1
- DrawnBrentford30 Aug 20261–1
- WonBrighton17 May 20261–0
Leeds: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 6 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
TottenhamTottenham away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- WonChelsea24 Oct 20262–0
- DrawnManchester United10 Oct 20261–1
- LostLiverpoolLeague Cup15 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnNottingham Forest5 Sep 20260–0
- LostBrentford22 Aug 20260–3
Tottenham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Leeds- Last match
- 7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Chelsea · Premier League
Tottenham- Last match
- 7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · Premier League
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Ipswich · Premier League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Leeds
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | Leeds | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 30 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 41 matches | 757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 31 matches | 169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches | 306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches | 211 won, 330 drawn, 211 lost in 752 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 166 won, 364 drawn, 166 lost in 696 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 21 drawn, 2 lost in 30 matches | 124 won, 400 drawn, 124 lost in 648 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 22 drawn, 14 lost in 54 matches | 628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 39 matches | 437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Leeds | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 31 scored, 24 conceded (79) | 880 scored, 880 conceded (2460) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 10 conceded (31) | 317 scored, 327 conceded (897) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 8 conceded (30) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (666) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Tottenham
Since 7 Nov 2024
| Score | Tottenham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 32 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 49 matches | 757 won, 244 drawn, 169 lost in 1170 matches |
| Conceded first | 0 won, 12 drawn, 32 lost in 44 matches | 169 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 334 won, 129 drawn, 74 lost in 537 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 306 won, 330 drawn, 306 lost in 942 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 74 won, 129 drawn, 334 lost in 537 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 31 matches | 52 won, 128 drawn, 364 lost in 544 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 356 won, 114 drawn, 37 lost in 507 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 7 drawn, 21 lost in 28 matches | 37 won, 114 drawn, 356 lost in 507 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 8 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches | 22 won, 99 drawn, 363 lost in 484 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 21 won, 18 drawn, 27 lost in 66 matches | 628 won, 464 drawn, 628 lost in 1720 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches | 321 won, 106 drawn, 78 lost in 505 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 19 drawn, 21 lost in 51 matches | 437 won, 390 drawn, 437 lost in 1264 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Tottenham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 39 scored, 28 conceded (97) | 880 scored, 880 conceded (2460) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 7 conceded (32) | 317 scored, 327 conceded (897) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 21 scored, 15 conceded (47) | 327 scored, 317 conceded (897) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 55 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,385 times, within 15 minutes 232, by full time 660)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Leeds | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 79Since 9 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 10 Nov 2024 |
| 133.23 | xG for | 92.16 |
| 131 | Goals scored | 100 |
| 89.72 | xG against | 115.01 |
| 85 | Goals conceded | 121 |
Leeds
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Bournemouth | 0.73 | 1.33 | 0–2 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Sunderland | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Manchester United | 1.48 | 0.93 | 1–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Arsenal | 0.62 | 2.33 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Crystal Palace | 1.31 | 1.06 | 0–0 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v Newcastle | 2.08 | 0.88 | 4–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Brighton | 2.49 | 2.19 | 1–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Brentford | 1.46 | 1.67 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Nottingham Forest | 0.47 | 0.66 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at West Ham | 1.59 | 2.61 | 0–3 |
Tottenham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Crystal Palace | 3.55 | 0.21 | 2–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Chelsea | 0.80 | 0.55 | 2–0 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Coventry | 0.90 | 0.79 | 3–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Manchester United | 1.62 | 0.80 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Aston Villa | 1.56 | 1.16 | 2–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Everton | 0.69 | 1.11 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Nottingham Forest | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Newcastle | 1.12 | 0.72 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Brentford | 0.57 | 3.87 | 0–3 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Everton | 1.15 | 0.41 | 1–0 |
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Leeds | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 12 |
| 11.94 | xPts | 13.69 |
| 11.40 | xG for | 11.87 |
| 11.88 | xG against | 10.13 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Leeds and Tottenham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 11:27 GMT · not changed since
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