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Premier League
Bournemouth
2–0Finished
Leeds
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

Bournemouth v Leeds match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bournemouth arrive in strong form with five straight wins, while Leeds show inconsistency with one victory in their last five matches. The model gives Bournemouth a 50% chance of winning, with Leeds at 24% and a draw at 26%. Expected goals stand at 1.62 for Bournemouth and 1.09 for Leeds, a gap of 0.53 in the hosts' favour, with both sides missing key defensive players.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 50%Bournemouth win
  • 26%Draw
  • 24%Leeds win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BournemouthBournemouth

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

  1. won3–0v Aston Villa
  2. won3–0at Manchester United
  3. won3–0v AC Milan
  4. won2–0v Sunderland
  5. won3–0v Sturm Graz
LeedsLeeds

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew0–0at Sunderland
  2. drew1–1v Manchester United
  3. lost1–2at Arsenal
  4. drew0–0v Crystal Palace
  5. won4–1v Newcastle

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bournemouth won 26 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Leeds won 31 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Bournemouth 1, draws 2, Leeds 1

Goals: Bournemouth 11, Leeds 9

DateMatchScore
22 Apr 2026Bournemouth v Leeds2–2
27 Sep 2025Leeds v Bournemouth2–2
30 Apr 2023Bournemouth v Leeds4–1
5 Nov 2022Leeds v Bournemouth4–3

Home and away

Bournemouth

Bournemouth at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonAston VillaLeague Cup28 Oct 20263–0
  • WonAC MilanUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20263–0
  • WonSunderland18 Oct 20262–0
  • WonSturm GrazUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20263–0
  • LostLiverpool20 Sep 20260–1

Bournemouth: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Leeds

Leeds away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnSunderland25 Oct 20260–0
  • LostArsenal10 Oct 20261–2
  • LostChelseaLeague Cup9 Sep 20263–6
  • DrawnBrighton5 Sep 20261–1
  • WonNottingham ForestLeague Cup25 Aug 20262–0

Leeds: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bournemouth
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Aston Villa · League Cup
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Sparta Praha · UEFA Europa League
Leeds
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Sunderland · Premier League
Next match
7 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Tottenham · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bournemouth

ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 43 matches749 won, 242 drawn, 169 lost in 1160 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 29 matches169 won, 242 drawn, 749 lost in 1160 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches329 won, 127 drawn, 74 lost in 530 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches304 won, 330 drawn, 304 lost in 938 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches357 won, 127 drawn, 52 lost in 536 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches211 won, 328 drawn, 211 lost in 750 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches350 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 500 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches166 won, 362 drawn, 166 lost in 694 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches359 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 480 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches124 won, 396 drawn, 124 lost in 644 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 24 drawn, 12 lost in 53 matches621 won, 460 drawn, 621 lost in 1702 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches316 won, 105 drawn, 78 lost in 499 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 20 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches434 won, 388 drawn, 434 lost in 1256 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
All matches33 scored, 25 conceded (79)878 scored, 878 conceded (2440)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 15 conceded (37)315 scored, 327 conceded (889)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (24)327 scored, 315 conceded (889)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,374 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 657)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Leeds

ScoreLeedsLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 42 matches749 won, 242 drawn, 169 lost in 1160 matches
Conceded first5 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 31 matches169 won, 242 drawn, 749 lost in 1160 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches304 won, 330 drawn, 304 lost in 938 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches211 won, 328 drawn, 211 lost in 750 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches166 won, 362 drawn, 166 lost in 694 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches412 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 418 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 21 drawn, 2 lost in 30 matches124 won, 396 drawn, 124 lost in 644 matches
Level after 15 minutes19 won, 22 drawn, 14 lost in 55 matches621 won, 460 drawn, 621 lost in 1702 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 39 matches434 won, 388 drawn, 434 lost in 1256 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLeedsLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 23 conceded (80)878 scored, 878 conceded (2440)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 10 conceded (32)315 scored, 327 conceded (889)
When level after 75 minutes13 scored, 8 conceded (30)236 scored, 236 conceded (662)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,374 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 657)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

BournemouthLeeds
75Matches with xG80
127.12xG for135.23
117Goals scored134
103.59xG against88.75
102Goals conceded84

Bournemouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bournemouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Manchester United2.151.173–0
18 Oct 2026v Sunderland4.400.132–0
10 Oct 2026at Chelsea1.381.101–5
20 Sep 2026v Liverpool0.791.650–1
12 Sep 2026v Brentford1.750.502–2
5 Sep 2026at Newcastle1.370.712–2
29 Aug 2026v Everton2.161.841–1
23 Aug 2026at Manchester City0.652.251–2
24 May 2026at Nottingham Forest0.951.731–1
19 May 2026v Manchester City2.251.481–1

Leeds

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Leeds: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Sunderland0.760.830–0
18 Oct 2026v Manchester United1.480.931–1
10 Oct 2026at Arsenal0.622.331–2
20 Sep 2026v Crystal Palace1.311.060–0
14 Sep 2026v Newcastle2.080.884–1
5 Sep 2026at Brighton2.492.191–1
30 Aug 2026v Brentford1.461.671–1
22 Aug 2026at Nottingham Forest0.470.661–0
24 May 2026at West Ham1.592.610–3
17 May 2026v Brighton0.393.061–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

BournemouthLeeds
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
9Points in those matches11
13.44xPts11.04
14.65xG for10.67
9.35xG against10.55

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bournemouth and Leeds

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BournemouthBournemouth
    Ruled out
    J. Araujo (Thigh Injury) · A. Scott (Thigh Injury) · A. Toth (Muscle Injury)
  • LeedsLeeds
    Ruled out
    M. Joseph (Knee Injury) · J. Rodon (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. James (Back Injury) · A. Stach (Foot Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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