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Premier League
Chelsea
2–0Finished
Manchester United
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 GMTMatchday 9 · Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea v Manchester United match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Chelsea hold a 50% chance of victory according to the model, with Manchester United at 26% and a draw at 24%. The hosts generate 1.83 expected goals to United's 1.29, creating a 0.54 gap in their favour. Chelsea have won two of their last five games, while United have managed just one draw in the same span. Both squads face heavy injury lists that could reshape team shape and availability.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 50%Chelsea win
  • 24%Draw
  • 26%Manchester United win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ChelseaChelsea

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1at Liverpool
  2. lost0–2v Tottenham
  3. won2–0at Everton
  4. won5–1v Bournemouth
  5. lost0–3at Brentford
Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–3v Bournemouth
  2. lost1–4at Como
  3. drew1–1at Leeds
  4. lost0–2at Atletico Madrid
  5. drew1–1v Tottenham

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 189 of 268.
  • Manchester United won 28 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Manchester United won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Manchester United without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Chelsea 2, draws 4, Manchester United 4

Goals: Chelsea 12, Manchester United 16

DateMatchScore
18 Apr 2026Chelsea v Manchester United0–1
20 Sep 2025Manchester United v Chelsea2–1
16 May 2025Chelsea v Manchester United1–0
3 Nov 2024Manchester United v Chelsea1–1
4 Apr 2024Chelsea v Manchester United4–3
6 Dec 2023Manchester United v Chelsea2–1
25 May 2023Manchester United v Chelsea4–1
22 Oct 2022Chelsea v Manchester United1–1
28 Apr 2022Manchester United v Chelsea1–1
28 Nov 2021Chelsea v Manchester United1–1

Home and away

Chelsea

Chelsea at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostTottenham24 Oct 20260–2
  • WonBournemouth10 Oct 20265–1
  • DrawnHull City12 Sep 20262–2
  • WonLeedsLeague Cup9 Sep 20266–3
  • WonBrighton30 Aug 20264–3

Chelsea: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Manchester United

Manchester United away

Last 5: 0 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostComoUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20261–4
  • DrawnLeeds18 Oct 20261–1
  • LostAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–2
  • DrawnFulham20 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnEverton6 Sep 20262–2

Manchester United: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Chelsea
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Liverpool · League Cup
Next match
8 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Sunderland · Premier League
Manchester United
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · Premier League
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v AS Roma · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Manchester United

ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 45 matches749 won, 242 drawn, 169 lost in 1160 matches
Conceded first10 won, 7 drawn, 26 lost in 43 matches169 won, 242 drawn, 749 lost in 1160 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 42 matches304 won, 330 drawn, 304 lost in 938 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches357 won, 127 drawn, 52 lost in 536 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches211 won, 328 drawn, 211 lost in 750 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches52 won, 127 drawn, 357 lost in 536 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches350 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 500 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches166 won, 362 drawn, 166 lost in 694 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes3 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 24 matches37 won, 113 drawn, 350 lost in 500 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches359 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 480 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 359 lost in 480 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 21 drawn, 16 lost in 65 matches621 won, 460 drawn, 621 lost in 1702 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 48 matches434 won, 388 drawn, 434 lost in 1256 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches78 won, 105 drawn, 316 lost in 499 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
All matches44 scored, 29 conceded (90)878 scored, 878 conceded (2440)
When leading after 75 minutes18 scored, 18 conceded (36)315 scored, 327 conceded (889)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 3 conceded (20)236 scored, 236 conceded (662)
When trailing after 75 minutes16 scored, 8 conceded (34)327 scored, 315 conceded (889)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 26(league sides: 1,374 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 657)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 3 Nov 2024

ChelseaManchester United
75Matches with xG75
128.93xG for116.45
120Goals scored115
100.64xG against100.41
99Goals conceded106

Chelsea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Chelsea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Tottenham0.550.800–2
17 Oct 2026at Everton1.590.542–0
10 Oct 2026v Bournemouth1.101.385–1
18 Sep 2026at Brentford0.832.650–3
12 Sep 2026v Hull City0.911.382–2
6 Sep 2026at Arsenal0.392.051–2
30 Aug 2026v Brighton2.931.414–3
24 Aug 2026at Fulham2.241.333–2
24 May 2026at Sunderland0.891.841–2
19 May 2026v Tottenham0.631.722–1

Manchester United

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester United: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Bournemouth1.172.150–3
18 Oct 2026at Leeds0.931.481–1
10 Oct 2026v Tottenham0.801.621–1
20 Sep 2026at Fulham1.601.621–1
13 Sep 2026v Manchester City1.001.100–1
6 Sep 2026at Everton0.691.012–2
30 Aug 2026v Ipswich4.562.015–2
22 Aug 2026at Hull City1.831.010–2
24 May 2026at Brighton1.660.793–0
17 May 2026v Nottingham Forest4.571.883–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

ChelseaManchester United
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
13Points in those matches7
10.33xPts10.68
10.54xG for12.58
11.54xG against12.00

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Chelsea and Manchester United

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ChelseaChelsea
    Ruled out
    A. Anselmino (Injury) · J. Gittens (Ankle Injury) · J. Hato (Injury) · R. James (Knee Injury) · Joao Pedro (Thigh Injury) · M. Lacroix (Muscle Injury) · E. Martinez (Broken jawbone)
  • Manchester UnitedManchester United
    Ruled out
    P. Dorgu (Hamstring Injury) · B. Sesko (Leg Injury) · L. Shaw (Injury) · M. Ugarte (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Mainoo (Injury) · M. Rashford (Hip Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 11:27 GMT · not changed since

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