Ligue 1 match analysis

Ligue 1 is the top division of French football. It has eighteen clubs, who play each other home and away. The lowest-placed clubs drop to Ligue 2.

Ledger publishes an analysis page for each upcoming Ligue 1 match it covers: the model's estimated chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, with a short written summary where one is available. Matches the model flags for a closer look carry a Signal found badge, and the full reasoning behind them is part of PRO. Finished matches stay listed with the final score.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 20:08 GMT · times in UK time

Upcoming matches

Each percentage is our estimate of how likely that result is.

Today · Fri 6 Nov

1 match

ToulouseStrasbourg LiveNo qualifying signalMost likely: Toulouse win39%chance of that result Live

Sat 7 Nov

2 matches

AuxerreParis FC18:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Paris FC win39%chance of that result18:00
Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes20:05No qualifying signalMost likely: Paris Saint Germain win84%chance of that result20:05

Sun 8 Nov

6 matches

RennesLille14:00No qualifying signalMost likely: Rennes win41%chance of that result14:00
AngersNice16:15No qualifying signalMost likely: Nice win39%chance of that result16:15
Stade Brestois 29Lyon16:15No qualifying signalMost likely: Lyon win40%chance of that result16:15
Le HavreLorient16:15No qualifying signalMost likely: Lorient win42%chance of that result16:15
Le MansMonaco16:15No qualifying signalMost likely: Monaco win43%chance of that result16:15
LensMarseille19:45No qualifying signalMost likely: Lens win42%chance of that result19:45

Fri 20 Nov

1 match

Estac TroyesLe Havre19:45No qualifying signalMost likely: Estac Troyes win48%chance of that result19:45

Table

Table as of 6 Nov 2026, 05:07 GMT · Source: API-Football

Ligue 1 table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	9	6	2	1	+11	20	WonWonWonWonWon
2	Lille	9	5	3	1	+6	18	WonDrawnDrawnWonLost
3	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+8	17	WonLostWonLostWon
4	Paris FC	9	5	2	2	+6	17	WonLostWonLostWon
5	Rennes	9	5	1	3	+1	16	LostWonLostWonLost
6	Marseille	9	5	0	4	+7	15	WonWonWonWonLost
7	Monaco	9	4	3	2	+2	15	LostDrawnLostDrawnWon
8	Nice	9	4	2	3	+1	14	WonWonLostWonWon
9	Lens	9	4	1	4	+3	13	LostWonWonWonLost
10	Stade Brestois 29	9	3	3	3	+4	12	WonLostDrawnWonLost
11	Lorient	9	3	3	3	-1	12	LostDrawnWonWonLost
12	Toulouse	9	2	4	3	-1	10	LostDrawnWonDrawnWon
13	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	-2	10	WonLostLostLostLost
14	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-10	10	LostDrawnWonLostWon
15	Angers	9	2	2	5	-8	8	LostDrawnLostLostWon
16	Estac Troyes	9	2	2	5	-9	8	WonDrawnLostLostLost
17	Le Mans	9	1	4	4	-7	7	LostDrawnLostLostWon
18	Le Havre	9	0	2	7	-11	2	LostLostLostLostLost

This season

Ligue 1 games since 21 Aug 2026, 90-minute score. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Home wins: 39 of 81
Draws: 19 of 81
Away wins: 23 of 81
Both teams scored: 49 of 81
Over 2.5 goals: 48 of 81
Goals: 138 by home teams, 108 by away teams in 81

xG and expected points

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Team	Matches with xG	Points in those matches	xPts	xG for	xG against
Paris Saint Germain	9	20	18.55	23.44	11.42
Lille	9	18	12.83	12.88	13.39
Lyon	9	17	14.72	14.72	10.64
Paris FC	9	17	16.46	16.04	9.05
Rennes	9	16	11.88	19.36	21.19
Marseille	9	15	10.60	14.79	19.75
Monaco	9	15	11.64	11.12	12.60
Nice	9	14	10.52	12.41	15.73
Lens	9	13	12.83	15.52	14.07
Stade Brestois 29	9	12	15.47	18.27	11.87
Lorient	9	12	12.59	10.63	10.21
Toulouse	9	10	15.55	17.01	12.11
Strasbourg	9	10	9.55	12.49	16.31
Auxerre	9	10	10.60	13.34	18.68
Angers	9	8	10.47	12.80	16.52
Estac Troyes	9	8	10.89	11.68	13.65
Le Mans	9	7	9.20	12.49	19.01
Le Havre	9	2	11.02	14.84	17.63

MP: Matches with xG · xG+: xG for · xG−: xG against

Points and expected points (xPts) in each team's league matches with xG this season. These are not the league table's points: a match without xG counts in neither column.

Teams are in the order of the official league table.

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

Recently analysed

Each analysis is kept exactly as it was published before kick-off.

Questions

How many clubs play in Ligue 1?

Eighteen. Each club plays thirty-four league matches, meeting every other club once at home and once away.

When is the Ligue 1 season played?

The season usually runs from August to May, with a short break over the winter holidays.

How do Ledger's analysis pages for Ligue 1 matches work?

Each upcoming Ligue 1 match gets its own page with the model's home, draw and away estimates and, where available, a short written summary. A Signal found badge marks matches the model has flagged; the full analysis behind it is available with PRO. Kick-off times are shown in UK time.

Is Ledger's analysis gambling advice?

No. Ledger publishes analysis, not gambling advice. Each page explains how the model reads a match and how confident it is; any decision you make is your own. Football matches can go any way, and no analysis changes that.